30 Oct
Daily Market Commentary

Month In Review: Bullish Month On Wall Street

Stocks Rally On More Easy Money

Stocks soared in October and enjoyed one of their largest monthly gains in years! As a quick review, the bulls regained control of the market on Fri 10/2/15 after September’s weaker than expected jobs report was announced (additionally, Aug’s and July’s jobs reports were both revised lower). That was a pivotal day because it changed the market’s perception and basically eliminated the chance the Fed will rates anytime soon. For months, we have argued that, “Wall Street is ready for a rate hike but Main Street clearly is not. So the easy money trade is alive and well (for now).”  Fundamentally, that is the primary driver of this entire/aging bull market and trumps the weak action we continue to see from Main Street (both on the earnings and economic front). Technically, the bulls defended Aug’s low at the end of Sep/early Oct and helped the benchmark S&P 500 form a bullish double bottom pattern “W.” This powerful pattern looks very similar to the Nasdaq in 1998 (before it soared into the March 2000 high). After the August lows were defended and the bulls knew the Fed would not be able to raise rates at their meeting in Oct, the market soared. Later in the month, the Fed did not raise rates and the European Central Bank added more easy money into the mix when they said they are ready to increase and extend QE (print more money), if needed. In the short term, the market is extended to the upside and due for a little pullback here to digest the recent and strong rally off support. We also want to note that over the past four weeks, the S&P 500 soared a whopping +11% which is not an insignificant sum. Remember, in “normal” (non QE) days, a 10% gain for the entire year was considered healthy. The big negative divergence remains the small-cap Russell 2000 and the fact that it is under performing on a relative basis. For now, the easy money trade is back at the fore and everything else is taking a back seat. 

Monday-Wednesday’s Action: All Eyes On The Fed

Stocks edged lower on Monday as investors digested a very strong four-week rally. New Home Sales hit an annualized rate of 468k units in September, missing estimates for 550k. It also missed August’s rate of 529k. Stocks slid on Tuesday as the Fed began their October meeting. Before the open, durable goods slid by -1.2%, missing estimates for -1.0%. The Case-Shiller Index rose by 0.1%, matching estimates for 0.1%. The PMI service flash index came in at 54.4, missing estimates for 55.3. Consumer confidence came in at 97.6, missing estimates for 102.5. The Richmond Fed Manufacturing index slid to -1, barely beating estimates for -2. In other news, oil prices continued to slide on supply woes. Stocks soared on Wednesday after the Fed held its latest meeting and decided to keep rates unchanged near zero. That gave the green light that the very powerful easy money trade is alive and well. Shares of Apple (AAPL) rallied after reporting their latest quarterly results. Shares of Twitter (TWTR) fell sharply after releasing earnings.

Thursday-Friday’s Action: Easy Money Sends Stocks Higher..Again

Stocks edged lower on Thursday after the government said Q3 GDP rose by +1.5%, missing estimates for +1.6%. This was the latest in a series of weaker than expected economic results and reiterated our thesis that Main Street is simply not ready for a rate hike (even though Wall Street is). Elsewhere, weekly initial claims level rose to 260k, beating estimates for 264k. After Thursday’s close, shares of LinkedIn (LNKD) rallied after releasing earnings. Stocks were quiet on Friday as investors digested very strong monthly gains on the last trading day of the month..

Market Outlook: Bulls Are Strong

This bull market is aging by any normal definition and will celebrate its 7th anniversary in March 2015. The last two major bull markets ended shortly after their 5th anniversary; 1994-2000 & 2002-Oct 2007. The fact that easy money is here to stay (for now) is all that matters. Everything else is noise. Eventually that will change, but for now the bulls remain in control. As always, keep your losses small and never argue with the tape. If you want exact entry and exit points in leading stocks, or access more of Adam’s commentary/thoughts on the market – Join FindLeadingStocks.com.

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29 Oct
Media Quotes

CNBC: Stocks close mostly lower; transports outperform

U.S. stocks closed lower Thursday, but mostly held the prior day’s rally, as investors continued to consider the possibility of a December rate hike and eyed earnings.
The S&P 500 ended about 1 point lower after trying to hold in positive territory as the close approached. The Dow Jones industrial average also failed an attempt to hold in positive territory, with Apple contributing the most to gains and Goldman Sachs the greatest weight.
“I think it’s just a market that’s consolidating but reflecting on the fact the Fed indicated yesterday in their statement they see the economy doing good,” said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Rockwell Global Capital.
Read MoreWhy the market is misreading the Fed statement
“Transports have begun to stabilize. It’s not really that fear factor of the Fed acting in December,” he said, noting some profit taking.
The Dow transports closed up about 0.8 percent, with Ryder Systemleading nearly all constituents higher.
The Nasdaq composite underperformed, ending about 0.4 percent lower as biotech stocks and semiconductors declined.
Health care closed about 0.4 percent higher. The sector briefly rallied more than 1 percent to lead S&P 500 advancers, helped by gains of more than 5.5 percent in Allergan. The firm confirmed that it has been approached by Pfizer and is in talks regarding a potential deal. Shares of both companies were briefly halted. Pfizer closed down nearly 2 percent.
The rate-sensitive utilities sector was the greatest decliner in the S&P, while financials was the second-greatest laggard after leading Wednesday’s post-Fed statement rally.
“Basically we’re hanging on to the 200 points from yesterday,” said Michael Farr, president and CEO of Farr, Miller & Washington.
“I don’t think the market expects the Fed to move at all,” he said, noting the statement was “pure wordsmithing and not material in terms of action.”
The Federal Reserve issued a post-meeting statement Wednesday that was more hawkish than many expected. In the statement, the central bank downplayed September’s concerns about impact from global growth and specifically noted it will be looking for progress in employment and labor when considering whether to raise rates at its December meeting.
The specific mention of the Fed’s next meeting immediately triggered a significant move up in market expectations for a rate hike this year.
Bond yields held higher after rising Wednesday. The 10-year yield was 2.17 percent and the 2-year yield 0.71 percent.
The U.S. dollar traded half a percent lower against major world currencies, with the euro at $1.09 and the yen at 121.08 yen against the dollar.
Many market analysts do not see enough economic support for the Fed to raise rates later this year.
“All data in the last three months shows some slowing,” said James Meyer, chief investment officer at Tower Bridge Advisors. “All they did yesterday was set the table, gave themselves the option (to hike in December).”
Read MoreFed tells markets to wake up, a rate hike could be coming
“As long as we have this disagreement in the market I think it’s going to be very difficult for stocks to reach new highs,” said Chuck Self, chief investment officer of iSectors. “We’re going to be in this trading range for the next few months.”
The three major averages are up nearly 9 percent or more for October so far, on track for their best month since October 2011.
“The dynamic has shifted from August and September,” said Adam Sarhan, CEO of Sarhan Capital. “You’re seeing weakness being bought instead of weakness being sold and that’s a big shift.”

Major averages 3-month performance


In economic news, third-quarter GDP showed an annual rate of 1.5 percent, slightly missing expectations and below the second-quarter’s 3.9 percent. Weekly jobless claims edged higher to 260,000.
“I don’t think there’s a whole lot of market-moving things coming out of the GDP report. I think it’s pretty much as expected,” Self said.
Dow futures continued to trade about 60 points lower after the early morning data releases.
Read MoreI called August bottom, now I see top: Jeff Saut
“I think the second quarter was the exception, in terms of plus-3 percent growth, and the quarters that surround it are going to be a lot weaker,” said Marie Schofield, chief economist and senior portfolio manager at Columbia Threadneedle Investments.
In another disappointing report on the housing sector for the week,pending home sales in September fell 2.3 percent to its second-lowest reading of 2015.
However, Schofield said the weakness in sales was due more to high prices than economic pressure. “Housing I see as a continued plus. I think it’s dependent on low rates and housing prices not increasing too fast,” she said.
Read MoreHere we go again: US budget hangs in the balance
U.S. stocks closed more than 1 percent higher Wednesday after the release of the Fed statement. Financials led S&P 500 advancers, with energy the second-best performer as oil surged 6.3 percent.
“It’s unambiguously positive to get the Fed out of the way,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Wunderlich Securities. “But in the near term … we look at the futures market (lower). We’re not giving back yesterday. We’re cutting it in half.”
“One of the things that’s going to be important to watch is WTI recapturing $45 and holding onto that,” he said.
Energy closed up 0.3 percent, giving up an intraday rally of more than 1 percent, but ended the day as the second-best performer in the S&P 500.
Crude oil futures settled up 12 cents, or 0.26 percent, at $46.06 a barrel, slightly extending Wednesday’s 6.3 percent rally.
Semiconductor stocks declined, with the Market Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) off about 2.5 percent. Weighing on the sector was NXP Semiconductors, which plunged about 19.7 percent after reporting revenue that missed expectations and giving below consensus fourth-quarter revenue guidance, according to StreetAccount.
Symbol
Name
Price
  
Change
%Change
DJIA Dow Jones Industrial Average 17755.80
—
 UNCH 0%
S&P 500 S&P 500 Index 2089.41
—
 UNCH 0%
NASDAQ Nasdaq Composite Index 5074.27
—
 UNCH 0%
Earnings season continued, with Aetna and Time Warner Cable among the companies that reported before the bell.
Baidu, Starbucks, Electronic Arts, LinkedIn, Western Union, Boston Beer, First Solar, Outerwall and SolarCity are among companies due to report after the bell.
Read MoreEarly movers: AET, TWC, MRO, MGM, SHW, MCK, NYCB, AMGN, SNE & more
In Europe, the pan-European Stoxx 600 index ended a touch lower Thursday. In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei finished 0.17 percent higher, while in China the Shanghai Composite closed 0.38 percent higher.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 23.72 points, or 0.13 percent, at 17,755.80, with Apple leading gainers and Intel the greatest laggard.
The S&P 500 closed down 0.94 points, or 0.04 percent, at 2,089.41, with utilities leading five sectors lower and health care leading advancers.
The Nasdaq composite closed down 21.42 points, or 0.42 percent, at 5,074.27.
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 14.5.
About three stocks declined for every two advancers on the New York Stock Exchange, with an exchange volume of 871 million and a composite volume of 3.9 billion in the close.
Gold futures settled down 428.80 at $1,147.30 an ounce.
On tap this week:
Thursday
Earnings: Baidu, Starbucks, Electronic Arts, LinkedIn, Boston Beer, First Solar, Live Nation Entertainment
Friday
Earnings: Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Seagate, Brink’s, CBOE Holdings, Rockwell Collins, Mylan Labs, Eldorado Gold, Public Service, Phillips 66, Rubbermaid, Aon, Calpine, Pinnacle West, A-B Inbev, AbbVie, Colgate-Palmolive, CVS Health
8:30 a.m.: Personal Income, Employment Cost Index
9:45 a.m.: Chicago PMI
10 a.m.: Consumer sentiment
10:50 a.m.: San Francisco Fed President John Williams
11:25 a.m.: Kansas City Fed President Esther George.

LINK: http://www.cnbc.com/2015/10/29/us-markets.html

23 Oct
Daily Market Commentary

Week In Review: Stocks Rally On More Easy Money

Stocks Rally On More Easy Money

Easy money from global central banks continues to be the primary driver of this very strong bull market. On Thursday, we saw the European Central Bank (ECB) increase and extend QE (print more money) and then on Friday, China’s central bank cut rates and took other easy money measures to stimulate markets. As a quick recap, the bulls regained control of this market four weeks ago when stocks bounced off formidable support in late September and early October. The big day occurred on Fri 10/2/15 after September’s weaker than expected jobs report was announced (additionally, Aug’s and July’s jobs reports were both revised lower). That was a pivotal day because it changed the market’s perception and basically eliminated the chance the Fed will rates anytime soon. For months, we have argued that, “Wall Street is ready for a rate hike but Main Street clearly is not. So the easy money trade is alive and well (for now).”  Fundamentally, that is the primary driver of this entire/aging bull market and trumps the weak action we continue to see from Main Street (both on the earnings and economic front). Technically, the S&P 500 and Dow Industrials broke out of a bullish double bottom pattern “W” and look very similar to the Nasdaq in 1998 (before it soared into the March 2000 high). This has the potential to set the stage for a very similar advance, especially if the market continues acting well to all the easy money sloshing around the world from global central banks. In the short term, the market is extended to the upside and due for a little pullback here to digest the recent and strong rally off support.We also want to note that over the past four weeks, the S&P 500 soared a whopping +11% which is not an insignificant sum. Remember, in “normal” (non QE) days, a 10% gain for the entire year was considered healthy. The big negative divergence remains the small-cap Russell 2000 and the fact that it is under performing on a relative basis.

Monday-Wednesday’s Action: Pullback, What Pullback? 

Stocks were quiet on Monday as investors digested the latest round of economic and earnings data. The big news came from China, when the country said Chinese GDP grew by 6.9%, just beating estimates for 6.8%. It was below the whisper number of 7% and was the lowest reading since Q1 2009. Crude oil and other commodities fell on the news.
Stocks fell on Tuesday after the S&P 500 came within 1 point of 2040 which has been major resistance (formerly support). Shares of IBM ($IBM) and Harley Davidson ($HOG) were two well known stocks that gapped down after reporting weak earnings. Verizon ($VZ) and Travelers ($TRV) gapped up after reporting Q3 results. So far, earnings are a mixed bag and the reaction remains mixed at best. Housing starts rose to 1.206M, beating estimates for 1.147M. Stocks opened higher but closed lower on Wednesday after biotechs and a slew of health care stocks dragged markets lower. Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX) was the standout loser after shares plunged 30% on rumors of an Enron-style accounting fraud.

Thursday-Friday’s Action: Easy Money Sends Stocks Higher..Again

Stocks soared on Thursday after the easy money trade returned to the fore. Before Thursday’s open, Mario Draghi juiced markets when he said the European Central Bank (ECB) would consider more QE (print more money) in December due to weakness in the global economy and emerging markets. He also said he’s open to extending QE past the initial Sep 2016 deadline, if needed. Stock futures and the US dollar soared on the news. The euro plunged to a three week low. After the close, Amazon ($AMZN), Microsoft ($MSFT) and Alphabet ($GOOG), all gapped higher after reporting Q3 results. Before Friday’s open, China announced new easy money measures to stimulate markets. Beijing cut interest rates by a quarter point, cut the reserve requirement by 50 basis points and lifted their ceiling on bank deposits. Stock futures soared on the news and the easy money trade is alive and well.

Market Outlook: Bulls Are Strong

This bull market is aging by any normal definition and celebrated its 6th anniversary in March 2015. The last two major bull markets ended shortly after their 5th anniversary; 1994-2000 & 2002-Oct 2007. The fact that easy money is here to stay (for now) is all that matters. Everything else is noise. Eventually that will change, but not yet. As always, keep your losses small and never argue with the tape. If you want exact entry and exit points in leading stocks, or access more of Adam’s commentary/thoughts on the market – Join FindLeadingStocks.com.

Want Better Investing Ideas?

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21 Oct
Media Quotes

Reuters: S&P 500, Nasdaq dip with healthcare

Markets | Wed Oct 21, 2015 3:40pm EDT
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq slipped in choppy trading late Wednesday afternoon as insurers and other big healthcare names dropped and Yahoo (YHOO.O) shares fell following disappointing results.
Valeant Pharmaceutical’s (VRX.N) U.S.-listed shares dropped sharply, hitting a low of $88.50, after short-seller Citron Research released a report critical about the company.
The stock later pared losses and was last at $120.39 after investor Bill Ackman said he increased his Valeant stake on Wednesday by 2 million shares, according to CNBC.
Shares of Allergan (AGN.N), which has a business model similar to that of Valeant, fell 4.6 percent to $251.37, though the company said nearly all of its drugs are being distributed through traditional wholesale and retail channels. Endo International (ENDP.O) fell 7.7 percent to $58.05.
Health insurers Aetna (AET.N), Humana (HUM.N), Anthem (ANTM.N) and Cigna (CI.N) slipped after Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton said she had “serious concerns” about the mergers the companies were proposing.
On the plus side, shares of General Motors (GM.N) rose 6.5 percent to $35.64, while Boeing (BA.N) rose 1.7 percent to $141.31, after both industry heavyweights reported better-than-expected results.
Yahoo (YHOO.O) was down 4.9 percent at $31.22, a day after the Internet company’s quarterly earnings and profit missed expectations.
“Earnings are a mixed bag but you’ve seen the market rally over the last six years without strong earnings,” said Adam Sarhan, chief executive of Sarhan Capital.
The outlook for interest rates remains a bigger factor right now for the market, he said, adding “the easy money trading trumps everything else.”
Stocks have mostly gained this month following a sharp selloff in the third quarter. The Federal Reserve decided against raising rates at is September meeting.
At 3:20 p.m., the Dow Jones industrial average .DJI was unchanged at 17,217.11, the S&P 500 .SPX lost 6.72 points, or 0.33 percent, to 2,024.05 and the Nasdaq Composite .IXICdropped 27.01 points, or 0.55 percent, to 4,853.96.
Of the S&P 500 companies that have reported results so far, 42 percent have exceeded revenue estimates, though about 60 percent typically beat estimates in a quarter, according to Thomson Reuters data.
Ferrari (RACE.N) was up 8.5 percent at $56.42 in its debut on the New York Stock Exchange.
Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by 1,984 to 1,053, for a 1.88-to-1 ratio on the downside; on the Nasdaq, 1,899 issues fell and 846 advanced for a 2.24-to-1 ratio favoring decliners.
The S&P 500 posted 27 new 52-week highs and 5 new lows; the Nasdaq recorded 52 new highs and 79 new lows.
Link: http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/21/us-markets-stocks-idUSKCN0SF18N20151021

21 Oct
Media Quotes

CNBC: Stocks close near session lows amid earnings

Wednesday October 21, 2015 4:00 pm EST
 
U.S. stocks closed lower Wednesday, as investors took in fresh corporate earnings.
The Nasdaq and the S&P 500 traded in a range before closing near their session lows of 4,836.46 and 2,017.22.
S&P 500 intradaySource: FactSet
The Dow Jones industrial average was also in a range, and nearly rose 100 points as Boeing pushed the blue chips index higher after reporting better-than-expected earnings.
Dow Jones industrial average intradaySource: FactSet
“The story in the Dow is United Technologies and Boeing versus UnitedHealth Group and Goldman Sachs,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Wunderlich Securities.
United Technologies closed up 2.46 percent, while Boeing ended 1.66 percent higher. Goldman closed down 3.13 percent and UnitedHealthfell 1.92 percent.
Read MoreLatest IBM miss another $600M hit to Warren Buffett
Other companies that posted quarterly results Wednesday includedCoca-Cola and General Motors. GM beat expectations on both earnings and revenue, but Coca-Cola sales fell short of estimates.
“Overall, we seem to be running at the same pace we’ve been running at the last few quarters,” said Randy Frederick, managing director of trading and derivatives at Charles Schwab.
Shares of GM rose closed up 5.79 percent after rising over 6.5 percent, while Coca-Cola’s stock traded slightly lower.
“That doesn’t take away that only 44 percent of companies have beaten on revenues,” said Nick Raich, CEO of The Earnings Scout.
Read MoreTop managers give under-the-radar earnings picks
Firms scheduled to report after the bell include American Express,eBay and Raymond James.
“We’ve had some pretty rocky earnings, and volatility has been pretty much contained,” said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Rockwell Global Capital.

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded above 16 and has dropped about 33 percent this month.
“With all these individual stock stories, the indexes are hanging in pretty nicely,” Hogan said.
On Tuesday, stocks closed narrowly lower as IBM posted disappointing earnings.
Stock took a hit Wednesday as health care turned negative year-to-date.
“Valeant is the killer,,” said Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at S&P Dow Jones Indices.
Valeant Pharmaceuticals plunged as much as 28 percent after the release of a short-seller note on the company.
“Now they’re comparing it to Enron,” Silverblatt said.
Read MoreDon’t look now, but bonds are back (junk, too)
Valeant stock intradaySource: FactSet
Investors also digested EIA oil inventories data, which showed inventories rise by 8 million barrels, as U.S. crude prices have fallen over 4.5 percent this week.
U.S. oil futures closed down 2.4 percent at $45.20 a barrel, posting their third straight day of losses.
“We think about low oil as being good for the economy, but I think it’s gotten too low and it’s become a drag in the economy,” Frederick said.
Read MoreTokyo jumps, but Shanghai posts biggest fall in 5 weeks
Wall Street also digested Japanese exports data, which came in far weaker than expected. Japan’s annual export growth slowed for the third straight month in September, raising questions as to whether or not the Bank of Japan will go further into its qualitative and quantitative easing program.
The data prodded up the Nikkei 225, which closed up nearly 2 percent, while China’s Shanghai Composite tumbled 3.47 percent.
“Big picture, easy money is here to stay,” said Adam Sarhan, CEO of Sarhan Capital.
U.S. Treasurys gained ground, as the 10-year yield fell to 2.02 percent and the two-year yielded 0.61 percent.
Symbol
Name
Price
  
Change
%Change
DJIA Dow Jones Industrial Average 17498.15
 
 329.54 1.92%
S&P 500 S&P 500 Index 2054.12
 
 35.18 1.74%
NASDAQ Nasdaq Composite Index 4918.32
 
 78.20 1.62%
“Some of the volatility we’re seeing in Treasurys (are investors) trying to find a bottom in interest rates,” said Bruce McCain, chief investment strategist at Key Private Bank.
In Europe, stocks ended mixed, with the pan-European STOXX 600 closing flat and the German DAX ending higher in anticipation of Thursday’s European Central Bank meeting.
In corporate news, Ferrari closed up 5.77 percent at $55 a share on itsfirst day of trading.
SanDisk will be bought by Western Digital for $86.50 a share in cash and stock, or $19 billion.
Morgan Stanley downgraded Twitter‘s stock to “underweight” from “equal-weight,” citing limited user growth and a lack of advertiser demand growth.
Toyota will recall 6.5 million vehicles to fix a power window defect, and another 2 million will be recalled for a potential fire hazard.
The Dow Jones industrial average closed down 48.50 points, or 0.28 percent, to 17,168.60, led lower by Glodman Sachs and with United Technologies leading advancers.
The S&P 500 ended 11.83 points lower, or 0.58 percent at 2,018.94, with energy leading nine sectors lower and industrials the only advancer.
The Nasdaq closed 40.85 points lower, or 0.84 percent, to 4,840.12.
Gold futures settled down $10.40 at $1,167.10 an ounce.
The dollar traded slightly higher against a basket of major currencies.
Decliners led advancers 3 to 1 at the New York Stock Exchange, with an exchange volume of 852 million and a composite volume of 3.591 billion at the close.
Wednesday
Earnings: American Express, eBay, Texas Instruments, Las Vegas Sands, SanDisk, Norsk Hydro, Northern Trust, SallieMae, Morningstar,Raymond James
Thursday
Earnings: 3M, Caterpillar, McDonald’s, Amazon.com, Alphabet (Google), Microsoft, Daimler, Dow Chemical, Danaher, AT&T,Raytheon, Eli Lilly, Dr Pepper Snapple, Freeport-McMoran, Nasdaq OMX, PulteGroup, Sirius XM Radio, Under Armour, Southwest Air,Juniper Networks, Pandora, Union Pacific, Alaska Air, Dunkin Brands,Capital One, Stryker
8:30 a.m.: Initial claims
9 a.m.: FHFA home prices
10 a.m.: Existing home sales
Friday
9:45 a.m.: Manufacturing PMI

Earnings: Procter and Gamble, American Airlines, Autoliv, Cabot Oil and Gas, State Street, LM Ericsson, Tenneco, Lear, Citizens Financial,VF Corp.

20 Oct
Blog

Lower Oil Prices Continue To Benefit Airlines

Lower Fuel Prices Help The Airlines

Over the last eighteen months, oil prices have plunged over 60% and remain in a ugly bear market. Certain industries benefit from lower oil prices, most notably the airlines. It is important to note that fuel is the biggest expense for the airlines and the fact that fuel prices have fallen sharply bodes well for their bottom line.

Indirect Tax On The Economy

Lower fuel prices also helps boost the economy. Keep in mind, higher energy prices serve as an indirect tax on both consumers and businesses. So lower energy prices leaves people (consumers and businesses) with more disposable income. When people have more money to spend, they tend to spend it and that boosts the economy.  A stronger economy means more people will travel and that is also bullish for the sector. Keep in mind, if oil prices turn and start heading up the story will change.
Take a look at the following charts:
Crude Oil:
111CRUDE

11JBLU

11ALGT

11DAL

1111HA

No Positions

19 Oct
Media Quotes

CNBC: Stocks mostly lower amid earnings; energy lags

U.S. stocks traded in a narrow range Monday, as investors prepare for a deluge of earnings while digesting Chinese economic data.
“I think it’s earnings-driven,” said J.J. Kinahan, chief strategist at TD Ameritrade.
Over a fifth of S&P 500 companies are scheduled release quarterly results this week. Banking giant Morgan Stanley posted earnings per share 20 cents below estimates before the bell, with revenue also disappointing.
“Morgan Stanley earnings were disappointing,” Kinahan said. “Halliburton was expected to be poor; somehow they managed to do worse than that.”
Halliburton reported better-than-expected earnings per share, but missed on revenue. Toymaker Hasbro also beat on earnings, but missed on revenues.
IBM is due to report after the bell.
Earnings reports thus far “have been more of the same from last quarter,” said Nick Raich, CEO of The Earnings Scout. “It’s all about the earnings per share.”
Raich also said that, of the 58 companies that had reported as of Friday’s close, 71 percent had beaten Wall Street’s estimates for EPS, but only 47 percent had beaten on revenue. “The theme for 2015 has been strong earnings and weak revenues,” he said.
U.S. equities opened lower, with all major indexes falling about 0.3 percent. The Nasdaq Composite rose as the iShares Biotechnology ETF(IBB) gained about 2 percent before paring gains. S&P and the Dow turned sightly positive in late-morning trading but struggled to hold on to gains.
“2040 was support (for the S&P) for most of 2015; now it’s resistance,” said Adam Sarhan, CEO of Sarhan Capital.
Read MoreEarnings in this industry are defying Q3 trend
Overnight, China reported a third-quarter gross domestic growth figure of 6.9 percent, slightly above the expected 6.8 percent, but also its lowest in six years. China also reported industrial production rose 5. percent, below the expected 6 percent increase.
“We’re less concerned about the global growth story than we were in August,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Wunderlich Securities. “It’s not to say China’s out of the woods, but it’s stabilizing.”
China’s growth data took its toll on the commodities space, which sawU.S. crude futures close down 2.90 percent at $45.89 a barrel, whileBrent futures dropped over 3.5 percent. The energy sector in the S&P fell more than 2 percent.
“We’ve probably seem the lows on oil, but it’s going to take some time to consolidate,” said Maris Ogg, president at Tower Bridge Advisors. “The news long-term is improving, it’s near-term (outlook) is still very choppy.
Read MoreNike headed to $200? Shares soar to all-time high
Gold futures also settled down $10.30 to $1,172.80 per ounce, below their 200-day moving average of $1,175.80.
Also weighing on commodities was the dollar, said Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott.
“The dollar’s been weakening pretty steadily, so it may be overdue for a bounce,” he said.
The euro hit a 10-day low against the dollar before trading at $1.1324, down about 0.2 percent. The dollar also rose about 0.40 percent against a basket of currencies.
Investors also looked at housing data for more clues about the strength of the U.S. economy, with the latest NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market index reading coming in at its highest in a decade.
“We are approaching the point where it will make sense to buy instead of rent as the rent increases will likely be more persistent in coming years than home price gains due to the secular decline in homeownerhip rates,” Peter Boockvar, chief market analyst at The Lindsey Group, said in a note.
Wall Street will have more housing data to digest this week, with housing starts due Tuesday, weekly mortgage applications on Wednesday and the FHFA House Price index and existing home sales due Thursday.
Read MoreIs the volatility spike already over?
“This week is going to tell us which way the market is going (moving forward),” Ogg said. “People are having second thoughts about the strength of the economy.”
Wall Street also digested prepared remarks made by Federal Reserve official Lael Brainard, who urged officials to ease the regulatory burden on small banks.
“Exempting banks with less than $10 billion in assets from its requirements would significantly help reduce burden on smaller institutions,” she said.
Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker was scheduled to speak at noon, but had to cancel due to illness. Other Fed speakers this week include Fed Governor Jerome Powell, New York Fed President William Dudley and Fed Chair Janet Yellen, who is scheduled to deliver welcoming remarks at a conference in New York City.
“They’re going to keep the market guessing as to when (they) will raise rates,” said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Rockwell Global Capital. “The Fed doesn’t want to commit to a rate hike because they follow global events.”
Read MoreBe like Buffett: Street recommends value stocks
Hogan said “there’s a majority of Fed (officials) who would like to lift off this year … but I think they will push this decision til next year.”
After Yellen delivers her remarks, there will be no more Fed speeches until after the the central bank’s Federal Open Market Committeemeeting.
“I think the next catalyst that could send stocks higher is the Fed.s FOMC meeting,” said Robert Pavlik, chief market strategist at Boston Private Wealth.
European stocks closed mixed as the pan-European STOXX 600 rose 0.3 percent, while London’s FTSE 100 fell 0.4 percent. The German DAX closed over 0.6 percent higher.
Asian equities ended mixed overnight, with the Shanghai Composite falling 0.11 percent, while the Hang Seng closed narrowly higher.
In corporate news, German banking giant Deutsche Bank announced Sunday a company-wide restructuring plan that will “fundamentally change” how it does business, splitting its investment bank into two businesses and parting ways with some key officials.
McDonald’s stock was added to Credit Suisse’s “US Focus List” and said it considered it one of its “top investment ideas.”
United Continental has not updated the condition of CEO Oscar Munoz after being admitted to the hospital Thursday.
Symbol
Name
Price
  
Change
%Change
DJIA Dow Jones Industrial Average 17197.78   -18.19 -0.11%
S&P 500 S&P 500 Index 2029.06   -4.05 -0.20%
NASDAQ Nasdaq Composite Index 4893.81   7.12 0.15%
The Dow Jones industrial average traded down 19 points, or 0.11 percent at 17,197, led lower by ExxonMobil and Chevron while Nike andVisa led advancers.
The S&P 500 traded down 3 points, or 0.17 percent, at 2,029, with energy leading seven sectors lower and consumer discretionary leading advancers.
The Nasdaq rose 5 points to 4,891.
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 15.
U.S. 10-year yields traded higher at 2.03 percent, while two-year note yields traded near 0.60 percent.
Decliners led advancers 3 to 2 at the New York Stock Exchange with an exchange volume of 275 million and a composite volume of 1.03 billion as of 2:15 p.m. ET.
LINK: http://www.cnbc.com/2015/10/19/us-markets.html
On tap this week:
Monday
Earnings: IBM, Flextronics, Crown Holdings, Celanese, Six Flags
Tuesday
Earnings: Travelers, United Technologies, Bank of NY Mellon, Lockheed Martin, Yahoo, VMWare, iRobot, Cree, Chipotle Mexican Grill,Chubb,Discover Financial, Tupperware, Pinnacle Financial, Brinker International, Canadian Pacific Railway, Omnicom, Harley-Davidson
8:30 a.m.: Housing starts
9 a.m.: New York Fed President William Dudley at market conference
9 a.m.: Fed Gov. Jerome Powell at market conference
11 a.m.: Fed Chair Janet Yellen makes welcoming remarks at ceremony
Wednesday
Earnings: Boeing, Coca-Cola, American Express, eBay, Abbott Labs,Biogen, Texas Instruments, Kimberly-Clark, Las Vegas Sands,General Motors, Credit Suisse, Owens Corning, St. Jude Medical,SanDisk, Norsk Hydro, Northern Trust, Angie’s List, Manpower Group,SallieMae,Polaris, Morningstar, Raymond James
1:30 p.m.: Fed’s Powell on panel on liquidity
Thursday
Earnings: 3M, Caterpillar, McDonald’s, Amazon.com, Alphabet (Google), Microsoft, Daimler, Dow Chemical, Danaher, AT&T,Raytheon,Eli Lilly, Dr Pepper Snapple, Freeport-McMoran, Nasdaq OMX,PulteGroup, Sirius XM Radio, Under Armour, Southwest Air,Juniper Networks, Pandora, Union Pacific, Alaska Air, Dunkin Brands,Capital One, Stryker
8:30 a.m.: Initial claims
9 a.m.: FHFA home prices
9:45 a.m.: Manufacturing PMI
10 a.m.: Existing home sales
Friday
Earnings: Procter and Gamble, American Airlines, Autoliv, Cabot Oil and Gas, State Street, LM Ericsson, Tenneco, Lear, Citizens Financial,VF Corp.
14 Oct
Media Quotes

Reuters: US STOCKS – Shares decline as Wal-Mart's weak forecast drags on retailers

* Wal-Mart sinks on weak forecast, drags down Dow
* JPMorgan falls, Bank of America rises after results
* U.S. retail sales barely rise in September
* Dow down 1.0 pct, S&P down 0.6 pct, Nasdaq down 0.4 pct (Updates to late afternoon)
By Caroline Valetkevitch
Oct 14 (Reuters) – U.S. stocks fell in late afternoon trading on Wednesday, as Wal-Mart skidded after issuing a weak forecast, dragging down other big retailers, and as JPMorgan slipped after its results.
They are among the latest disappointments as the U.S. third-quarter earnings season gets under way. S&P 500 earnings are expected to have fallen 4.2 percent in the quarter from a year ago, according to Thomson Reuters data.
Wal-Mart sank 9.7 percent to $60.23, poised for its worst one-day performance in more than 17 years, after it forecast a drop of up to 12 percent in earnings per share in fiscal 2017. The day’s decline wiped more than $20 billion off the retailer’s market value, and the stock was among the biggest drags on the Dow and S&P 500.
Rival Target was down 4.2 percent at $75.63, and Sears fell 3.5 percent to $24.28. TheS&P 500 retail index dropped 1.4 percent.
Data on Wednesday showed retail sales in the United States barely rose in September.
“What we’re seeing now I think is the market digesting a strong rally,” said Adam Sarhan, chief executive of Sarhan Capital in New York. “If we start to see some heavy selling that’s not going to be a good sign. Right now the market is range-bound.”
At 3:18 p.m., the Dow Jones industrial average fell 174.05 points, or 1.02 percent, to 16,907.84, the S&P 500 lost 11.14 points, or 0.56 percent, to 1,992.55 and the NasdaqComposite dropped 16.97 points, or 0.35 percent, to 4,779.65.
JPMorgan shares fell 2.8 percent to $59.86, after the bank reporting reported disappointing third-quarter results following the market close on Tuesday.
Wells Fargo fell 0.7 percent to $51.48. Bank of America bucked the trend, rising 0.7 percent to $15.64 after reporting results on Wednesday.
Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by 1,770 to 1,213, for a 1.46-to-1 ratio on the downside; on the Nasdaq, 1,612 issues fell and 1,119 advanced for a 1.44-to-1 ratio favoring decliners.
The S&P 500 posted seven new 52-week highs and four new lows; the Nasdaq recorded 19 new highs and 48 new lows. (Additional reporting by Abhiram Nandakumar in Bengaluru; Editing by Saumyadeb Chakrabarty and Leslie Adler)
LINK: http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/14/markets-stocks-usa-idUSL1N12E1ZR20151014

14 Oct
Media Quotes

CNBC: Dow closes down more than 150 as Wal-Mart, Boeing weigh

Wednesday 10.14.15

U.S. stocks closed lower Wednesday as investors digested earnings reports and weighed weaker-than-expected data.
“The market came into the week pretty overbought and with these earnings reports, (there’s) a little bit of a headwind,” said Bruce Bittles, chief investment strategist at RW Baird.
The Dow Jones industrial average closed down about 158 points after falling as much as 194 points, pressured by declines in Wal-Mart andBoeing. The index ended below the psychologically key level of 17,000 for the first time since Oct. 7.
Wal-Mart plunged 10 percent as the greatest weight on the Dow Jones industrial average,
“It’s all Wal-Mart. I think it’s rare to see a stock like Wal-Mart down 10 percent,” said Ryan Larson, head of equity trading, U.S., at RBC Global Asset Management (U.S.). “Wal-Mart’s what brought sentiment down this morning on (their comments about) future growth and earnings and what they see for 2016.”
The firm said Wednesday that it expects sales to be flat in fiscal year 2016. At the lows of the day, shares hit a three-year low and wiped out more than $20 billion in market cap, on track for its worst day in more than a decade.
The SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) declined more than 1 percent, on track for a fourth-straight day of losses.
Read MoreWhen Wal-Mart plunges, sell these stocks too
Boeing fell more than 4 percent, contributing nearly as much to declines in the Dow as Wal-Mart. The aircraft maker’s stock declined amid concerns about aircraft demand following Delta comments in its earnings call Wednesday about a “huge bubble in excess wide-body airplanes,” StreetAccount said.
The Dow transports traded slightly higher, with Ryder leading advancers and JetBlue the greatest decliner.
The Nasdaq composite tried to hold higher, as a rally of more than 10 percent in SanDisk on news it was exploring a potential sale boosted semiconductor stocks. The Market Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH)briefly jumped more than 3 percent. Intel also gained more than 1.5 percent, following earnings that beat on both the top and bottom line.
The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB) rose more than 1 percent, while Apple fell more than 1 percent.
The S&P 500 held mostly lower after a brief attempt to turn positive as materials and energy led advancers with gains about 1 percent each. The index fell below the psychologically key level of 2,000 in intraday trade for the first time since Oct. 8. Consumer sectors were the greatest weights on the index.
“This has been a rally where the stocks that were beaten down most in the May-August period … are leading the way,” said Marc Chaikin, CEO of Chaikin Analytics.
“If you can revive the dead that’s good for the market,” he said.
U.S. retail sales barely rose in September as cheaper gasoline weighed on service station receipts, while producer prices posted their biggest decline in 8 months.
“The economic data (was) a bit disappointing and plays in to the Fed staying on hold, probably for the balance of the year,” said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Rockwell Global Capital.
“I think what we’re seeing now is a rush into gold,” he said.
Gold futures settled up $14.40 at $1,179.80 an ounce.
In other economic news, August business inventories remained unchanged, slightly missing expectations for a 0.1 percent increase.
“Inventory growth has slowed to zero for two months straight as of August, a come down from the Q2 juiced GDP number,” Peter Boockvar, chief market analyst at The Lindsey Group, said in a note.
In the afternoon, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s latest Beige Book saidmodest overall economic expansion continues. The report said the stronger dollar was more of a headwind to the manufacturing sector than slowdown in China.
“I think the Beige Book probably just added to a weak tape in a low volume environment,” Larson said.
“In addition to commodity weakness you also have the 10-year under 2 (percent),” he said. “Under 2, it does tend to lend to a little more pessimism. “
Treasury yields traded lower, with the 10-year yield at 1.98 percent, falling below 2 percent for the first time since Oct. 5. The 2-year yieldfell to 0.57 percent.
Read MoreStocks are about to take the next big test
The U.S. dollar traded more than half a percent lower against major world currencies, with the euro higher above $1.14 and the yen at 118.86 yen against the dollar.
Crude pared losses to settle down 2 cents, at $46.64 a barrel.
Stocks traded mixed in the open, with the S&P 500 near the flatline and the Nasdaq composite higher, while the Dow Jones industrial average was negative.
“The market was very overbought and we’re due to pull back,” said Adam Sarhan, CEO of Sarhan Capital. “Earnings expectations have been ratcheted down so many times that the barriers (shouldn’t be) very hard for them to beat.”
Following JPMorgan‘s disappointing results late Tuesday, Bank of America reported earnings that beat analysts’ expectations. Meanwhile, BlackRock said its third-quarter profits fell 8 percent.
Wells Fargo also reported earnings that beat expectations.
“The market’s looking for any positives to come out of these earnings,” said JJ Kinahan, chief strategist at TD Ameritrade.
“We have Netflix later,” he said. “That one is going to be sort of interesting later. Can they continue their great growth and give us a bit of insight into what is going on worldwide?”
The video-streaming giant is scheduled to release results after the close. Citigroup and Goldman Sachs earnings are slated for Thursday before the bell.

Overseas, equities were lower after weaker-than-expected Chinese inflation data added to concerns about the health of the world’s second-biggest economy.
China’s consumer price index (CPI) rose 1.6 percent in September from a year earlier, against forecasts of a 1.8 percent rise from a Reuters poll and following August’s 2 percent gain.
China’s share markets slid into negative territory in the afternoon trading session, with the Shanghai Composite down nearly 1 percent. Major indices in Europe closed lower, with the DAX off more than 1 percent.
Read MoreEarly movers: BAC, JPM, AAPL, DAL, INTC, GPRO, CSX & more
In afternoon trade, the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 153 points, or 0.88 percent, at 16,930, with Wal-Mart and Boeing the greatest decliners and Intel leading advancers.
The S&P 500 traded down 8 points, or 0.42 percent, at 1,995, with consumer staples leading seven sectors lower and materials the greatest advancer.
The Nasdaq traded down 9 points, or 0.2 percent, at 4,786.
The CBOE Volatility index (VIX), widely considered as the best gauge for volatility, traded below 18.
Decliners were a step ahead of advancers on the New York Stock Exchange, with an exchange volume of 552 million and a composite volume of nearly 2.7 billion.
On tap this week:
Wednesday
Earnings: Netflix
Thursday
Earnings: Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, UnitedHealth, US Bancorp, Schlumberger, Mattel, Advanced Micro Devices, Philip Morris, BB&T, Blackstone, Charles Schwab, WD-40
8:30 am: Consumer price index
8:30 am: Jobless claims
8:30 am: Empire State manufacturing survey
10:00 am: Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey
10:30 am: Natural gas inventories
10:30 am: New York Fed President William Dudley speaks
11:00 am: Oil inventories
Friday
Earnings: GE, Honeywell, Comerica, Kansas City Southern, SunTrust
9:15 am: Industrial production
10:00 am: JOLTS
10:00 am: Consumer sentiment
10:00 am: Atlanta Fed business inflation expectations
1:00 pm: Oil rig count
4:00 pm: Treasury International Capital
LINK:  http://www.cnbc.com/2015/10/14/us-stocks-open-lower-amid-data.html
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