26 Feb
Daily Market Commentary

Week In Review- Oversold Bounce Continues…For Now

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 Oversold Bounce Continues…For Now

It was another volatile week on Wall Street. After all was said and done, the major indices ended higher as we head into the end of the month. Since the Feb 11 low, we have written that “conditions are ripe for stocks to rally a bit as they work off their deeply oversold levels.” This still appears to be a bull trap – (a.k.a bear market rally). Let’s analyze the facts, over the past three weeks, the benchmark S&P 500 has soared nearly 8% which is not an insignificant sum. In normal times (before massive interference from global central banks), a 10% move for the entire year was considered healthy. So 8.4% in 3 weeks, clearly is a HUGE MOVE and that type of wild action, does not happen in bull markets. Large wide and loose swings typically do not occur in bull markets. Instead, they occur during bear markets. Prior to the 8.4% rally, we saw the S&P 500 fall 7% in 2 weeks. In the short term, the market is flirting with major resistance and the intermediate and long term outlook still remain bleak. To be clear in our thinking, we are still operating with the notion that we are in the early stages of a new bear market for stocks so we have to be very selective moving forward. Second, it is important to note that, in bear markets, surprises happen to the downside. Third, we have to keep in mind that global central banks love interfering with markets and have distorted the playing field for years. Any strong intervention may change the playing field and lead to a stronger bounce. We feel it is just a matter of time until the major indices fall 20% from their 2015 highs which officially defines a bear market. Several important areas of the market are already in a bear market (defined by a decline of 20% or more from a recent high) which means it is just a matter of time until the major indices play catch up to the downside. These are some of the important areas that are already in bear market territory: Commodities, The Small Cap Russell 2000 ($IWM), Transports ($IYT), Biotechs ($IBB), Retail ($XRT), Junk Bonds ($JNK), Materials ($XLB), just to name a few.
Monday-Wednesday’s Action: Stocks Swing In Wide Range

Stocks rallied on on Monday as the market added to last week’s gain. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded above the middle of it’s double bottom pattern and the next level of resistance to watch is the declining 50 day moving average line (16,654). European and Asian equity markets also rallied on Monday after oil prices jumped 6%. The The International Energy Agency (IEA) said by 2021, the U.S. will lead the world in oil production increases even though it is taking the “biggest hit for now.” The IEA said in the short term they expect production to come down which helped ease concerns of the ongoing supply glut. For the past two weeks, oil has bounced sharply from deeply oversold levels. It shouldn’t come as a surprise to see energy stocks among the strongest performing sectors on Monday.
Stocks fell on Tuesday as investors digested a slew of economic and earnings data. Oil prices fell hard on Tuesday after Saudi Arabia said they do not plan on cutting production anytime soon. Economic data was mixed. The S&P Case-Shiller index rose 0.8% in December which matched estimates. Consumer confidence slowed to 92.2, missing estimates for 97.2. Existing home sales rose by 0.4% in January to 5.47 million annualized rate, beating estimates for 5.32M. The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index came in at -4, missing estimates for 2. The State Street Investor confidence index came in at 106.5, lower than the revised reading of 108.7. Technically, the major indices pulled back after encountering stubborn resistance near their declining 50 day moving average lines on Monday.
Stocks opened lower but closed higher on Wednesday after the latest round of lackluster earnings and economic data were released. Oil prices also positively reversed after the latest EIA report was released. Economic data was less than thrilling. First, February’s Flash PMI Services Index Fell to 49.8, miss estimates for 53. Then New Home sales plunged -9.2% last month to an annualized rate of 494,000, missing the Street’s estimate for 520,000. This clearly shows that the economy is slowing, not strengthening and that is a problem for both Main Street and Wall Street. Earnings data was also less than stellar. Avis -Budget Group (CAR) plunged over 23% after the company lowered guidance for 2016. The company lowered adjusted EPS to $2.70-$3.30, which was lower than the Street’s estimate for $3.43. Target TGT ($TGT) also missed estimates but the stock was not hurt because the company raised guidance. Shares of First Solar ($FSLR) were up slightly after the solar panel manufacturer posted mixed results. Revenue beat analysts’ estimates, but earnings slid to $1.60 from $1.90 the year before.
Thursday-Friday’s Action: Stocks End Week On A Strong Note
Stocks rallied on Thursday as the market added to Wednesday’s very strong positive reversal. Overnight, the Shanghai composite plunged -6.4% and hit a three-week low. Rumors spread that China’s central bank injected another $52 billion into the money market to help stabilize markets. The ChiNext index which tracks small-cap Chinese stocks tanked -7.7% which clearly is not good for the global risk-on trade. We finally had a strong economic report. Durable goods jumped 4.9%, easily beating estimates for 2%. Excluding transportation equipment, durable goods orders increased by +1.8%. Core capital goods orders also jumped +3.9%. Jobless claims rose 272k, which were close to the Street’s estimate for 270k. The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) said home prices rose 0.4% in December, missing estimates for 0.5%. The report pulls home prices for single family homes using data from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index fell to negative -12, lower than the last reading of -9. Before Friday’s open, the government said GDP rose by 1%, beating estimates for 0.4%. 

Market Outlook: Bear Market Rally

The market is deeply oversold so keep in mind the strongest rallies in history occur during bear markets (a.k.a bull traps). As always, keep your losses small and never argue with the tape. If you want help with the market, contact Adam or – Join FindLeadingStocks.com. 

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25 Feb
Media Quotes

Sarhan in WSJ: Why China’s Selloff Isn’t Bringing Down U.S. Stocks

U.S. investors returned to their desks on the first trading day of the year to see that the Shanghai Composite Index had fallen 6.9%. The resulting stateside selloff was swift and heavy.
Less than two months later, U.S. traders got in Thursday morning to see the same thing: a6.4% selloff in Chinese stocks amid concerns about market liquidity. The moves barely made a dent in U.S. benchmarks, with the S&P 500 up 0.6% on the day.
The shift is a sign that investors increasingly realize Chinese stocks aren’t a particularly good gauge of the health of the world’s second-largest economy. Investors are clamoring for any signals about China’s economic growth, given that its slowing pace of expansion is likely to have effects globally, but many see economic data and moves in the currency markets as better indicators.
“I think the movements in the Chinese equity markets are being increasingly viewed as idiosyncratic,” said Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott. “Investors realize it’s a casino and the activity is largely retail-driven speculation and clumsily handled intervention.”
When Chinese President Xi Jinping took office in 2013, he trumpeted stock market gains as a sign of the country’s economic health, Mr. Luschini said. That pushed global investors to focus more heavily on moves in China’s stocks, which rose 32% in the first six months of last year alone.
The index has fallen 23% so far this year. China’s central bank has sought to reassure investors in recent weeks through stimulus measures. That’s helped stabilize markets, but also obscured the market’s signaling mechanism further.
The Chinese economy, “is a concern, just not right now,” said  Adam Sarhan, chief executive officer at Sarhan Capital, suggesting the country’s government is, “kicking the can further down the road” on its structural problems.
The use of liquidity injections, combined with the prevalence of retail investors has made Chinese stocks more volatile than their U.S. counterparts. The Shanghai Composite has had 13 daily moves of more than 2% so far this year. The S&P 500, which has endured a particularly volatile start to the year, has had five such moves.
For U.S. stocks, it would be a tall order to follow every move in China. So when positive U.S. durable-goods data and a raft of upbeat earnings set the market up for a different tone on Thursday, investors were happy to take the bait.
“At some point, fundamentals matter. And that’s what we’re seeing in today’s market,” said Quincy Krosby, markets strategist at Prudential Financial.
LINK: http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2016/02/25/why-chinas-selloff-isnt-bringing-down-u-s-stocks/

25 Feb
Media Quotes

Sarhan in CNBC: Dow jumps triple digits as oil gains; financials lead

U.S. stocks traded higher Thursday, following the prior day’s massive intraday reversal, as oil prices gained.
The Dow Jones industrial average added more than 150 points, with United Technologies and Goldman Sachs contributing the most to gains.
“I still think the shorts haven’t been neutralized. I think there’s a bit of a short squeeze going on,” said Daniel Deming, managing director at KKM Financial.
The major averages extended gains as oil turned higher, briefly rising 3 percent near $33 a barrel. Earlier, a brief 3 percent drop in oil prices weighed on U.S. stocks, which opened higher after a better-than-expected durable goods report but struggled to hold those opening gains.
“I think we’re still tethered to oil,” said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at BMO Private Bank. “I’m not willing to declare the end of this correlation.”
U.S. crude oil futures settled up 92 cents, or 2.86 percent, at $33.07. The gains came after a Bloomberg report that the Venezuelan oil minister Eulogio Del Pino said his country, Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Qatar had settled on meeting in March.
The Nasdaq composite held higher as Apple and other major tech stocks erased earlier losses.
The S&P 500 traded about 0.8 percent higher after struggling for gains, with financials up more than 1 percent. Energy was the only sector holding a touch lower.
“I think (the earlier decline was) profit taking. I think we’re at a little bit of an inflection point here, looking for a new catalyst,” said Tom Wright, director of equities at JMP Securities, noting that driver could come from some announcements of major corporate deals.
“When energy stocks found some stability, the financials got really soft and that was a concern,” he said. “The financials are OK since then and we’d like to see a much bigger bounce in the financials to gain more confidence.”
Also weighing on sentiment earlier was the overnight 6.4 percent plunge in the Shanghai composite, while the Hang Seng lost nearly 1.6 percent. In contrast, Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 1.4 percent.
“From a fundamental standpoint the market’s in a wait and see mode and to a large extent remains at the mercy of oil,” said Adam Sarhan, CEO of Sarhan Capital. “As goes oil, so goes the other risk assets.”
Treasury yields held lower, with the 2-year yield at 0.73 percent and the 10-year yield at 1.71 percent.
The U.S. dollar index traded little changed, with the euro at $1.10 and the yen at 112.73 yen against the greenback.
European stocks pared gains but held about 2 percent higher. The STOXX Europe 600 Banks outperformed, briefly trading more than 4 percent higher but still more than 30 percent below its 52-week intraday high.
U.S. stock index futures held mostly higher after January orders for durable goods jumped 4.9 percent, topping expectations with the largest increase since March and reversing December’s revised 4.6 percent plunge. Non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans, jumped 3.9 percent after tumbling by a revised 3.7 percent in December, Reuters said.
“Favorable technicals and incrementally positive news should lend to perhaps a higher trend today,” BMO’s Ablin said.
The major U.S. averages staged a massive reversal Wednesday to close higher as some stabilization in oil prices offset declines in financials. The sector, which is the worst performer in the S&P 500 for the year so far, was among the top index advancers in morning trade Thursday.
St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, a voting member of the Fed, said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” that he’s not too concerned about a global recession but he does see a “lower trend growth rate.”
Read MoreCiti: Risk of global recession rising
Separately, Bullard late Wednesday reiterated his opposition to further interest rate hikes given that U.S. inflation expectations have fallen and threaten the U.S. central bank’s credibility.
Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart reiterated Fed policy for rate hikes remains data dependent, according to StreetAccount.
San Francisco Fed President John Williams reiterated Thursday he expects the Fed to continue gradually raising interest rates. In a speech aimed at pushing back on political efforts to clamp down on Fed independence by imposing a Taylor-like rule on decisions, Williams said the central bank should avoid tying its policy-making to a single rule and continue to embrace an eclectic approach, according to Reuters.
Symbol
Name
Price
  
Change
%Change
DJIA Dow Jones Industrial Average 16643.60
 
 158.61 0.96%
S&P 500 S&P 500 Index 1945.54
 
 15.74 0.82%
NASDAQ Nasdaq Composite Index 4564.60
 
 21.99 0.48%
On Wednesday, the Dow Jones industrial average reclaimed a 266-point drop — its largest recovery of losses by points since 2008 — and then went on to close up 53 points. The S&P 500 erased intraday losses of more than 1 percent for the third time in 2016 and closed up 0.4 percent.
Read MoreEarly movers: BUD, DPZ, BBY, LB, RATE, HPQ & more
In afternoon trade, the Dow Jones industrial average rose 131 points, or 0.8 percent, to 16,616, with United Technologies leading advancers and ExxonMobil the greatest laggard.
The S&P 500 rose 12 points, or 0.64 percent, to 1,942, with financials leading nince advancers and energy the only decliner.
The Nasdaq composite gained 15 points, or 0.33 percent, to 4,557.
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 20.
About two stocks rose for every decliner on the New York Stock Exchange, with an exchange volume of 507 million and a composite volume of nearly 2.502 billion.
U.S. crude oil futures for April delivery rose 63 cents to $32.81 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Gold futures settled 30 cents lower at $1,238.80 an ounce.
—Reuters contributed to this report.
On tap this week:
Thursday
Earnings: AB InBev, Bayer, Apache, Best Buy, Campbell Soup, Domino’s Pizza, Kohl’s, Chico’s FAS, Sears Holdings, SeaWorld, Baidu, Autodesk, Gap, Intuit, Kraft Heinz, Herbalife, Live Nation Ent., Noodles & Co., Weight Watchers
G-20 finance ministers meet in Shanghai
Friday
G-20 meets in Shanghai
Earnings: J.C. Penney, Foot Locker, Sotheby’s, Sempra Energy, AmericanTower, Centerpoint, Liberty Media, Telefonica, Rowan Cos
8:30 a.m. Real GDP Q4 (second reading); international trade
8:30 a.m.: Personal income, consumer spending
10 a.m. Consumer sentiment
Saturday
Earnings: Berkshire Hathaway
*Planner subject to change.
Link: http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/25/us-stocks-open-higher-after-durable-goods.html
19 Feb
Daily Market Commentary

Week-In-Review Bullish Double Bottom Pattern Forming On Wall Street

` SPX---Double Bottom–

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The Nasdaq Is Down Over -10% In 2016,
We’re Not (We Moved To Cash in December)

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 Bullish Double Bottom Pattern Continues To Form

The market is trying to form the right side of a bullish double bottom pattern. The pattern will be confirmed when the major indices breakout above Feb’s high. For the week, the major indices ended the week higher but closed in the middle of their weekly range which may be a sign of short term fatigue. Last week we wrote, “stocks ended lower but near their weekly highs which suggests the market may finally bounce from deeply oversold levels. This appears to be another short term low for stocks (Not “the” low, just “a” low). The conditions are ripe for stocks to rally a bit as they work off their deeply oversold levels. Once again, the bulls showed up and defended important support for the S&P 500 (1810-1820 area). What we saw last week was another “buy tail” which is a technical term for a market opening lower and closing higher (or near the highs). We have seen this pattern a few times before and the pattern tends to set the stage for a near term rally. That’s the short term outlook.” Typically, these short term oversold rallies last a few weeks, not days. We’ll see if this one has any legs or rolls over and fails like so many other short rallies we have seen in recent months. Meanwhile, the intermediate and long term outlook still remain bleak. First, we are still operating with the notion that we are in the early stages of a new bear market for stocks so we have to be very selective moving forward. Second, it is important to note that, in bear markets, surprises happen to the downside. Third, we have to keep in mind that global central banks love interfering with markets and have distorted the playing field for years. Any strong intervention may change the playing field and lead to a stronger bounce. Until that occurs, the sellers remain in clear control. We feel it is just a matter of time until the major indices fall 20% from their 2015 highs which officially defines a bear market. Several important areas of the market are already in a bear market (defined by a decline of 20% or more from a recent high) which means it is just a matter of time until the major indices play catch up to the downside. These are some of the important areas that are already in bear market territory: Commodities, The Small Cap Russell 2000 ($IWM), Transports ($IYT), Biotechs ($IBB), Retail ($XRT), Junk Bonds ($JNK), Materials ($XLB), just to name a few.
Monday-Wednesday’s Action: Oversold Rally Anyone?

U.S. stocks rallied on Tuesday as traders returned from a long weekend. Wall Street was closed on Monday for President’s Day but stock futures were higher alongside other international equity markets. Stocks continued to bounce on Tuesday from deeply oversold levels. International stocks were higher after the latest round of bullish central bank rhetoric was announced. Mario Draghi, head of the European Central Bank (ECB), said he is ”ready to do its part” to make “the euro area more resilient.” That is his way of saying the ECB is ready to pump more money into the system (increase QE) next month if conditions worsen. Separately, China’s Central Bank wants to spend more money to stimulate their economy and they central bank is considering changing the rules (once again) to help “encourage” bank lending. Bad loans in China surged to the highest level in a decade but the central bank wants more lending to stimulate markets. The Yuan surged on Monday and enjoyed its largest single day gain in over 10 years. In the U.S. a few regional Fed presidents spoke and said largely reiterated the recent stance that the Fed remains data dependent. Oil prices were higher on Monday but fell on Tuesday after OPEC decided to hold production steady. The Street was looking for OPEC to cut production and the fact that oil didn’t cut sent oil prices plunging over 8% from its intra-day on Tuesday.Oil has only had 2 “up” days all month and remains in a steep bear market. In economic news, the U.S. Empire Manufacturing Index contracted for a seventh straight month and missed estimates. The Empire Manufacturing index fell to 16.64, missing estimates for -10. In other news, home builder sentiment fell to 58 in February, missing estimates for 61.
U.S. stocks continued their 3-day rally as the market continues to bounce from deeply oversold levels. It is important to note that new leadership still remains virtually non-existent and the market continues to be led higher by beaten down areas such as Materials ($XLB) and the Transports ($IYT). Investors digested a lot of economic data on Wednesday. Overall the data was mixed to less than stellar. MBA mortgage applications jumped to 8.2%, which was lower than the prior reading of 9.3%. The big jump came from refinancing (thanks to lower mortgage rates), not new purchases. Elsewhere, Housing starts slid by -3.8% last month while building permits slid by -0.2%. Housing starts came in at 1.099M, missing estimates for 1.175M. Building permits came in at 1.202M, compared to estimates of 1.224M. Separately, U.S. producer prices rose +0.1% last month, beating estimates for a decline of -0.2%. Core prices, which exclude food and energy, rose +0.4%, also beating estimates for +0.1%. Finally, industrial production for January grew by +0.9% beating estimates for +0.4%. Meanwhile, capacity utilization was 77.1%, beating estimates for 76.7%. Finally, E-Commerce Retail Sales rose 2.1% which was lower than the last revised reading of 3.8%. The Fed released the minutes of their last meeting at 2pm EST and, as expected, the minutes reiterated the Fed’s recent “data dependent” stance.
Thursday-Friday’s Action: Stocks Pullback To Digest Recent Rally
Stocks are relatively quiet on Thursday as the market pauses to digest the recent and very strong 3-4 day rally. Since last week’s low, the benchmark S&P 500 vaulted ~120 points or +6.6%! That is a huge move by any normal measure. In “normal” (non/Central Bank printing money days), a 10% gain for the entire year was considered “normal.” Clearly, a +6.6% rally in a 4 trading days is considered very strong and way over due to pullback to digest that move. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) cut its forecast for the global economy to +3.0% in 2016, down from +3.3%. The OECD is concerned that some emerging economies by be adversely affected from the sharp exchange-rate movements we are seeing in global currencies. The report came one day after Mexico’s government surprised the street to defend their currency (peso). The European Central Bank (ECB) released the minutes of their last meeting. ECB President Mario Draghi has made it clear that the central bank is ready to “do more” in March, if needed. In other news, China’s Central Bank (PBOC) increased liquidity operations to further boost markets. The PBOC said they are conducting open-market operations every day. This was originally stated before their Lunar New Year holiday. The bank is relaxing their peg on their currency (the yuan) which allows the yuan to trade in a wider range. Stocks fell on Friday after core inflation jumped to 2.2%, over the Fed’s 2% target.

Market Outlook: A Big Top

From where we sit, this aging bull market is over or on its last breath. The last two major bull markets ended shortly after their 5th anniversary; 1994-2000 & 2002-Oct 2007. The market is deeply oversold so keep in mind the strongest rallies in history occur during bear markets (a.k.a bull traps). As always, keep your losses small and never argue with the tape. If you want help with the market, contact Adam or – Join FindLeadingStocks.com. 

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19 Feb
Media Quotes

Sarhan CNBC: Stocks mixed despite oil slide; Nasdaq holds higher

U.S. stocks traded in a range Friday, continuing to consolidate after solid gains earlier in the week and mostly shaking off pressure from declines in oil prices.
The major averages held mixed in midday trade, but well off session lows with the Nasdaq composite trading mostly higher.
“I think people feel the market’s stabilizing to a certain extent,” Peter Coleman, head trader at Convergex, noting the S&P 500 rallied more than 6 percent from its low last week to its recent high this week. After three solid days of gains, Thursday’s sell-off was “very mild.”
“I’m getting more constructive,” he said.

S&P 500 6-day performance (intraday)


Source: FactSet
The S&P 500 held mostly lower in midday trade, hovering just above 1,910 as energy declined more than 1.5 percent as the greatest laggard. Information technology and financials led advancers.
“I think it’s technical. The market ran into resistance at 1,950 (on the S&P 500),” said Marc Chaikin, CEO of Chaikin Analytics.
“In a market that’s highly volatile and seemingly irrational, the only thing you have to go on are your technicals.,” he said, attributing much of the recent gains to short covering.
The Nasdaq composite turned positive in mid-morning trade, helped by gains in Applied Materials, Facebook and shares of Alphabet, Google’s parent company.
Read MoreThis is the S&P 500 level everyone’s watching
Chevron and Boeing were the greatest contributors to declines on the Dow Jones industrial average, which held about 40 points lower after briefly falling more than 100 points.
“So far the market’s bouncing almost perfectly to work off the oversold conditions we saw last week. There’s still a whole lot of overhead resistance,” said Adam Sarhan, CEO of Sarhan Capital.
As of the close Thursday, the major U.S. averages were up more than 2.5 percent for the week so far, on pace for their best week since November.
“You’ve had a little bit of an emotional relief that will tend to shore up the market in the short-term,” said Bruce McCain, chief investment strategist at Key Private Bank. “You just need a continued flow of … news that beats expectations, less bad than expected.”
Read MoreWeek could end well for stocks if oil holds $30
In economic news, the consumer price index showed a 0.3 percent rise ex-food and energy in January. The headline figure was unchanged from the previous month. Year-over-year, the core CPI advanced 2.2 percent, the largest rise since June 2012, Reuters said.
“The CPI number doesn’t surprise me but it does surprise me the market isn’t taking a closer look at it,” said David Kelly, chief global strategist at JP Morgan Funds.
“I think it’s an important report because it should remind people that underlying inflation pressures are moving up,” he said.
Treasury yields edged higher, with the 2-year yield at 0.74 percent and the 10-year yield at 1.76 percent, as of 9:34 a.m. ET.
The U.S. dollar held mildly higher against major currencies, with the euro at $1.109 and the yen at 113.04 yen against the greenback.
Earlier, U.S. futures indicated a slightly higher open, before erasing gains.
Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said Friday that policy will likely need to remain accommodative “for some time” given slow growth abroad, the strong dollar, more restrictive financial conditions and the hard-hit energy sector, Reuters reported. Mester also said Inflation will remain “lower for longer” than previously thought, although the U.S. economy will “work through” market volatility and soft economic data.
Symbol
Name
Price
  
Change
%Change
DJIA Dow Jones Industrial Average 16366.04
 
 -47.39 -0.29%
S&P 500 S&P 500 Index 1916.09
 
 -1.74 -0.09%
NASDAQ Nasdaq Composite Index 4507.60
 
 20.07 0.45%
European stocks were off about 1 percent in morning trade ET. Asian stocks were mostly lower Friday, but the Nikkei 225 ended the week with gains of nearly 6.8 percent, while the Shanghai composite was up about 3.5 percent for the week.
Read More: UK’s Cameron says ‘still no deal’ with EU
In earnings news, Deere reported earnings that beat by 10 cents but revenue missed as the strong dollar weighed. The heavy equipment maker said its financial condition is strong, but it expects another “challenging” year ahead.
Nordstrom missed on both the top and bottom line, and gave a below-expectations full-year earnings and sales outlook. The retailer has been negatively impacted by heavy discounting and unseasonably warm weather.
Read More: Early movers: DE, VFC, BBY, SBUX, BHI, JWN, & more
In morning trade, the Dow Jones Industrial Average traded down 116 points, or 0.7 percent, to 16,298, with Caterpillar leading decliners andUnitedHealth and American Express the only gainers.
The S&P 500 fell 14 points, or 0.75 percent, to 1,903, with energy leading all 10 sectors lower.
The Nasdaq composite traded down 29 points, or 0.7 percent, to 4,455.
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 22.3.
About four stocks declined for every advancer on the New York Stock Exchange, with an exchange volume of 147 million and a composite volume of 304 million in morning trade.
LINK: http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/19/us-markets.html
12 Feb
Media Quotes

Sarhan CNBC: Dow, S&P snap 5-day losing streak as oil pops 12%

Friday, 2.12.16

U.S. equities closed sharply higher on Friday as European and American bank stocks — as well as oil prices — bounced sharply, while investors digested U.S. economic data.
“I think people are finally seeing lots of things worth buying,” said Adrian Day, chairman and CEO of Adrian Day Asset Management.
The Dow Jones industrial average gained more than 300 points, as Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase contributed the most gains, snapping a five-day losing streak but still lost about 1.4 percent for the week.
Dow this week

Source: FactSet
“I definitely urge caution, but the conditions are there for a short-term bounce,” said Adam Sarhan, CEO of Sarhan Capital.
JPMorgan’s stock gained 8.3 percent on Friday after CEO Jamie Dimon bought over $25 million worth of the company’s stock.
“If he pulls the trigger, hat gives people confidence,” Day said.
The S&P 500 index gained 1.9 percent, as financials rose 4 percent. The index also snapped a five-day losing streak.
The Nasdaq composite rose 1.4 percent.
Read MoreStreet Explained: Fallout from negative rates
“We’re going to need a lot more than this to gain some ground,” said Randy Warren, chief investment officer at Warren Financial Service. “I wouldn’t get my hopes up but oil has to hit bottom at some point.”
In Europe, shares of Deutsche Bank rose 11.8 percent after the bank said it was buying back over $5 billion in bonds, while Commerzbank’s stock gained 18.02 percent amid a strong earnings report.
The pan-European STOXX 600 index rose 2.91 percent.
Markets in mainland China have been closed this week due to the Lunar New Year Holiday and are scheduled to reopen Monday. However, U.S. markets will be closed on Monday due to the President’s Day holiday.
Read More‘Arrogant’ Fed—stop swimming upstream
U.S. oil prices also boosted stock prices in the U.S., as WTI settled 12.32 percent higher, or $3.23, at $29.44 a barrel.
“The proposed deal for a cease-fire in Syria might hep bring the Saudis to the table for an OPEC deal,” said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at First Standard Financial. “I believe one of the reasons oil prices are so low is geopolitical.”
WTI settled 4.5 percent lower on Thursday, but began paring most of those losses after a report surfaced that OPEC was ready to cooperate with a production cut.
“We hit a new low and tons of short covering came into the market. that UAE headline was well timed,” said John Kilduff, founding partner of Again Capital. “They arguably held the bottom. from a technical perspective on a short term basis.”
U.S. equities fell sharply Thursday amid a global sell-off, with the Dow falling more than 250 points. The Dow and S&P are also still down more than 8 percent year to date, while the Nasdaq is down over 13 percent.
“This is one of the more orderly sell-offs I’ve seen in my life,” JJ Kinahan, chief strategist at TD Ameritrade, told CNBC on Thursday. “We haven’t had any panic days.”
Investors also digested U.S. retail sales, which rose 0.2 percent in January, above the 0.1 percent expected gain. Import prices in the U.S. fell 1.1 percent, less than expected.
“Bottom line, notwithstanding a pretty ugly month in the markets, the prospect of better wage growth seemed to help lift retail sales after a disappointing December. I’m not going to say lower gasoline prices was the reason for better than expected sales because if it hasn’t been a lift so far because of a variety of cost of living offsets, why should it all of sudden been one in January,” Peter Boockvar, chief market analyst at The Lindsey Group, said in a note.
“If you take a look at the jobs data and retail sales, there are few signs that the U.S. economy is heading into a recession,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Wunderlich Securities.
Other data points due Friday included consumer sentiment, which came in below expectations, and business inventories, which rose 0.1 percent in December.
“Nobody’s paying attention, but consumer confidence has been rising month in, month out,” said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at BMO Private Bank. “I wouldn’t be surprised to see further gains in retail.”
Read MoreGartman: I’m not so bullish on bullion right now
U.S. Treasury yields rose on Friday, with the 10-year yield trading at 1.73 percent, after briefly falling below the 1.55 percent mark on Thursday.
“You don’t see that kind of move normally,” Hogan said. “That’s indicative of some of that flight-to-safety money coming back into risk assets.”
Other traditional safe havens fell on Friday, including gold, which gained more than $50 on Thursday. Gold futures for April deliverysettled at $1,239.40 an ounce, down $8.40.
The dollar gained 0.52 percent against the euro and 0.88 percent against the yen.
Investors also digested comments from New York Fed President William Dudley, in which he said the key components of the U.S.economy remain healthy. He also said that any talk about negative interest rates coming to the U.S. is “extraordinarily premature.”
Symbol
Name
Price
  
Change
%Change
DJIA Dow Jones Industrial Average 15973.84
 
 313.66 2.00%
S&P 500 S&P 500 Index 1864.78
 
 35.70 1.95%
NASDAQ Nasdaq Composite Index 4337.51
 
 70.68 1.66%
The Dow Jones industrial average closed 313.66 points higher, or 2 percent, at 15,973.84, with JPMorgan Chase leading all stocks higher.
The S&P 500 ended 35.70 points higher, or 1.95 percent, at 1,864.78, as financials led nine sectors higher and utilities lagged.
The Nasdaq rose 70.67 points, or 1.66 percent, to close at 4,337.51.
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 26.
Advancers led decliners 4 to 1 on the New York Stock Exchange, with an exchange volume of 1.159 billion and a composite volume of 4.657 billion at the close.
High-frequency trading accounted for 49 percent of February’s daily trading volume of about 9.66 billion shares, according to TABB Group. During the peak levels of high-frequency trading in 2009, about 61 percent of 9.8 billion of average daily shares traded were executed by high-frequency traders.

LINK: http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/12/us-markets.html

 
11 Feb
Media Quotes

Sarhan on CNBC: Dow, S&P off 1% as Europe plunges; oil eyed

Thursday 2,11.16
U.S. equities fell sharply Thursday as investors digested a massive global sell-off.
“The Chinese H share index didn’t wait until the mainland opening on Monday and closed overnight with a near 5% drop to a level last seen in March 16th 2009,” Peter Boockvar, chief market analyst at The Lindsey Group, said in a note.
Trading in mainland China is closed this week due to the Lunar New Year Holiday.
The pan-European STOXX 600 fell 2.6 percent as banks in the region plunged, with Deutsche Bank dropping 4.7 percent and UBS falling 2.6 percent. On Wednesday, European banks soared, momentarily halting a massive plunge.
The sell-off in global equities sent traditional safe havens surging.
Gold futures for April delivery gained $43.80 to trade at $1,238.50, while U.S. 10-year note yields traded at 1.63 percent. The benchmark note yield also went below 1.55 percent momentarily.
“The central banks have lost control of the situation,” said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at First Standard Financial. “If this continues, there’s real trouble ahead.”
The Dow Jones industrial average briefly fell more than 250 points, as Goldman Sachs weighed the most on the blue chips index. In midmorning trading, the Dow was about 190 points lower.
“I think you’re in a situation where the market in deeply oversold levels. … At some point, it’s got to bounce,” said Adam Sarhan, CEO of Sarhan Capital. “But make no mistake about it, the overall trend is down.”
The S&P 500 dropped more than 1 percent, as financial fell nearly 2.5 percent. The financial sector was on track for its first five-day losing streak since August.
“There’s a chance we break below the 1,800 level, and then the next level to watch is 1,775,” Cardillo said. “I think we could see a bounce there. Otherwise, we’re in trouble.”
The Nasdaq composite fell 0.5 percent, as biotechnology stocks and several technology stocks fell. The index was also about 1.5 percent away of entering bear market territory on an intraday basis.
Investors also kept an eye on falling oil prices, as WTI futures hit their lowest levels since 2003.
In midmorning trading, U.S. crude was 49 cents lower, or 1.7 percent, at $26.96 a barrel.
“As of yesterday, oil has moved 5 percent 24 of the 26 trading days this year,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Wunderlich Securities. “That doesn’t happen. … That is more than we would see in an average year.”
On the data front, U.S. weekly jobless claims came in at 269,000, below estimates. However, “we’re ignoring the fact that there’s good news,” Hogan said.
U.S. futures fell sharply on Thursday, with Dow futures briefly falling more than 300 points. On Wednesday, stocks failed to hold a rally that lasted most of the session, as the Dow and S&P both closed lower.
Read MorePollution crisis is choking the Chinese economy
“Yesterday we had the perfect setup for a constructive day,” Hogan said. “And it all collapsed on us. Oil fell and everyone fell with it.”
“Volatility is going to be the norm, not the exception.”
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 28.5, after briefly hitting its highest level since Jan. 20.
Investors will also keep an eye on Fed Chair Janet Yellen, who is scheduled to testify for a second day in front of Congress.
On Wednesday, she said that, if the U.S. economy were to disappoint, the Fed would have to reconsider its rate hike path.
The Dow Jones industrial average traded 250 points lower, or 1.5 percent, at 15,665, with JPMorgan Chase leading decliners and Cisco Systems the greatest advancer.
The S&P 500 dropped 27 points, or 1.5 percent, to trade at 1,825, with financials leading all sectors lower.

The Nasdaq plunged 45 points, or 1 percent, to trade at 4,238.

The dollar fell 0.4 percent against a basket of currencies.
Decliners were about 5 steps ahead of advancers on the New York Stock Exchange, with an exchange volume of 126 million and a composite volume of 407 million as of 9:49 a.m. ET.
On tap this week:
Thursday
Earnings: CBS, KKR, FireEye, AIG, Activision Blizzard
10 a.m.: Fed Chair Janet Yellen testifies before Senate Banking Committee
1 p.m.: 30-year bond auction
Friday
Earnings: Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Calpine, Buckeye Partners, Interpublic, Ventas, Brookfield Asset Management
8:30 a.m.: Retail sales; import prices
10 a.m.: Consumer sentiment; business inventories; New York Fed President William Dudley speaks on household debt and credit
*Planner subject to change.
LINK: http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/11/us-markets.html
10 Feb
Media Quotes

Sarhan in CNBC: Dow, S&P Extend Losing Streak To 4 days; Nasdaq Gains

U.S. stocks closed mostly lower on Wednesday as investors digested remarks from Fed Chair Janet Yellen, as well another choppy trading in oil.
“It’s a lack of bullish impetus,” said Adam Sarhan, CEO of Sarhan Capital. “Anytime you see the market trying to rally, you get strong selling pressure.”
Leading the three major indexes was the Nasdaq composite, which briefly rose over 2 percent as technology stocks gained ground. Netflix and Alphabet shares gained 2.7 percent and 0.8 percent, respectively.

The FANGs had sold off pretty steeply, that could be some short covering … or investors buying indiscriminately,” said Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott.
The index closed 0.3 percent higher.
The Dow Jones industrial average gained as much as 187.51 points in midmorning trading, after U.S. oil momentarily bounced more than 3.5 percent on fresh supply data. In afternoon trading, however, the blue chips index fell over 100 points lower as Disney and IBM weighed, before closing down 99 points.
“The boost to stocks came directly correlated to what happened in oil, so it’s hard to say it was anything but that,” Janney’s Luschini said.
“You had some hope of an inventory drawdown, but that didn’t hold,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Wunderlich Securities. “You had a build in distillates and that sort of rolled over the market.”
The S&P 500 closed slightly lower, as materials weighed. The Dow and S&P extended their losing streak to four straight days.
Yellen delivered her remarks to Congress at 10 a.m. ET, in which she notes that, if the U.S. economy were to disappoint, the Fed would have to reconsider its rate hike path.
“Bottom line on Yellen’s testimony, of the 3 possible options I laid out in my morning note, I believe the Janet Yellen testimony fell into Door Number 2, the non committal one. I say this because she acknowledged all the risks to the downside and positives on the upside to the outlook without leaning in any one direction, thus leaving us with a ‘let’s play it by ear’, middle of the road message,” Peter Boockvar, chief market analyst at The Lindsey Group, said in a note.
“I don’t recall her ever saying that before,” said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at First Standard Financial.
Yellen answered questions after delivering her remarks, saying “I don’t think it will be necessary to cut rates but like I said monetary policy is not on a preset course.”
“She’s put on the perfect hedge,” Sarhan said. “She doesn’t want to lose credibility and say she was wrong.”
Randy Warren, chief investment officer at Warren Financial Service, said “I think think she’s capitulated quite a bit. … The market has basically said that you’re crazy if you think you’re raising rates this year.”
Dow futures traded sharply higher Wednesday, jumping more than 150 points as European equities rallied.
“The pivot point in action today is Deutsche Bank saying they were considering buying back bonds,” Wunderlich’s Hogan said.
Shares of the German bank gained 10.2 percent Wednesday, but remained about 35 percent lower for the year. Meanwhile, the pan-European STOXX 600 index closed 1.88 percent higher.
“[European banks] were never forced to clean up their balance sheets the way ours were, and that’s coming back to bite them,” said Maris Ogg, president at Tower Bridge Advisors.
Investors also kept an eye on U.S. oil prices, which seesawed Wednesday.
“There was talk that Iran was willing to work with the Saudis, and that calmed the market,” First Standard’s Cardillo said.
Prices briefly jumped more than 3.5 percent after the Energy Information Administration said that U.S. oil inventories fell 0.8 million barrels, before closing 49 cents lower, or 1.75 percent, at $27.45 a barrel.
The oil market has been maligned by oversupply concerns throughout the year, pushing U.S. crude down about 24 percent this year.
WTI in 2016

“WTI is flirting with with that January low,” Sarhan said. “If that low gets taken out on a closing basis, you could see another leg lower for oil.”
The benchmark 10-year yield traded at 1.70 percent, slightly below Tuesday’s close.
Jon Adams, senior investment strategist at BMO Global Asset Management, said the recent rally in government bonds around the world is reflective of global recession fears. “Once the market realizes that monetary policy [around the world] is still fairly supportive, I think yields will go moderately higher.”
The dollar fell about 0.3 percent against a basket of currencies.
Earnings season continued Wednesday morning, with Time Warner and Humana, among others, reporting before the bell. Cisco Systems, Tesla Motors, Twitter and Whole Foods are scheduled to report after the bell.
The Dow Jones industrial average closed 99.64 points lower, or 0.62 percent, at 15,914.74, with Walt Disney leading laggards and Nike the greatest advancer.
The S&P 500 closed 0.35 points lower, or 0.02 percent, at 1,851.86, as materials led eight sectors lower and health care and information technology advanced.
The Nasdaq ended 14.83 points higher, or 0.35 percent, at 4,283.59.
Gold futures for April delivery settled at $1,194.60 an ounce, down $4.
The CBOEVolatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 26.
Advancers were a slight step ahead of decliners on the New York Stock Exchange, with and exchange volume of 1.082 billion and a composite volume of 4.434 billion at the close.
— CNBC’s Patti Domm contributed to this report.
On tap this week:
Wednesday
Earnings: Time Warner, Cisco Systems, Twitter, Whole Foods, Tesla Motors, Sealed Air, Owens Corning, Nissan, Pioneer Natural Resources, iRobot, Flowers Foods, Rayonier, Zynga
Thursday
Earnings: PepsiCo, Kellogg, Nokia, Molson Coors, Time Inc, Groupon, Pandora, Zillow, Teva Pharma, Borg Warner, Advance Auto Parts, CBS, KKR, FireEye, AIG, Activision Blizzard
8:30 a.m.: Initial claims
10 a.m.: Fed Chair Janet Yellen testifies before Senate Banking Committee
1 p.m.: 30-year bond auction
Friday
Earnings: Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Calpine, Buckeye Partners, Interpublic, Ventas, Brookfield Asset Management
8:30 a.m.: Retail sales; import prices
10 a.m.: Consumer sentiment; business inventories; New York Fed President William Dudley speaks on household debt and credit
*Planner subject to change.
10 Feb
Media Quotes

Sarhan CNBC: Stocks mostly higher amid Yellen remarks; oil eyed

Wednesday 02.10.16 
U.S. stocks traded mostly higher on Wednesday as investors digested remarks from Fed Chair Janet Yellen, as well another choppy trading in oil.
Yellen delivered her remarks to Congress at 10 a.m. ET, in which she notes that, if the U.S. economy were to disappoint, the Fed would have to reconsider its rate hike path.
“Bottom line on Yellen’s testimony, of the 3 possible options I laid out in my morning note, I believe the Janet Yellen testimony fell into Door Number 2, the non committal one. I say this because she acknowledged all the risks to the downside and positives on the upside to the outlook without leaning in any one direction, thus leaving us with a ‘let’s play it by ear’, middle of the road message,” Peter Boockvar, chief market analyst at The Lindsey Group, said in a note.
“I don’t recall her ever saying that before,” said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at First Standard Financial.
Yellen answered questions after delivering her remarks, saying “I don’t think it will be necessary to cut rates but like I said monetary policy is not on a preset course.”
“She’s put on the perfect hedge,” said Adam Sarhan, CEO of Sarhan Capital. “She doesn’t want to lose credibility and say she was wrong.”
Leading the three major indexes was the Nasdaq composite, which briefly rose over 2 percent as technology stocks gained ground. Netflixand Alphabet shares gained 5 percent and 1.7 percent, respectively.
“The FANGs had sold off pretty steeply, that could be some short covering … or investors buying indiscriminately,” said Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott.
“The boost to stocks came directly correlated to what happened in oil, so it’s hard to say it was anything but that,” Janney’s Luschini said.
“You had some hope of an inventory drawdown, but that didn’t hold,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Wunderlich Securities. “You had a build in distillates and that sort of rolled over the market.”
The S&P 500 was up 0.8 percent in up trading, led higher by health care and information technology.
Dow futures traded sharply higher Wednesday, jumping more than 150 points as European equities rallied.
“The pivot point in action today is Deutsche Bank saying they were considering buying back bonds,” Wunderlich’s Hogan said.
Shares of the German bank gained 10.2 percent Wednesday, but remained about 35 percent lower for the year. Meanwhile, the pan-European STOXX 600 index closed 1.88 percent higher.
“[European banks] were never forced to clean up their balance sheets the way ours were, and that’s coming back to bite them,” said Maris Ogg, president at Tower Bridge Advisors.
Investors also kept an eye on U.S. oil prices, which seesawed Wednesday.
“There was talk that Iran was willing to work with the Saudis, and that calmed the market,” First Standard’s Cardillo said.
Prices briefly jumped more than 3.5 percent after the Energy Information Administration said that U.S. oil inventories fell 0.8 million barrels, before paring most of those gains.
The oil market has been maligned by oversupply concerns throughout the year, pushing U.S. crude down about 24 percent this year.
WTI in 2016
“WTI is flirting with with that January low,” Sarhan said. “If that low gets taken out on a closing basis, you could see another leg lower for oil.”
Tthe benchmark 10-year yield traded at 1.72 percent.
“Bonds are not liking [Yellen’s testimony] a little bit,” said Tom Simons, money market economist at Jefferies. “She didn’t say we’re going to backtrack on policy. The focus is on continued normalization and people were looking for signals the other way.”
Read MoreCarl Icahn nurses paper losses on energy bets
The U.S. Treasury Department is scheduled to sell $23 billion in 10-year notes Wednesday.
The dollar rose 0.24 percent against a basket of currencies.
Earnings season continued Wednesday morning, with Time Warner and Humana, among others, reporting before the bell. Cisco Systems, Tesla Motors, Twitter and Whole Foods are scheduled to report after the bell.
The Dow Jones industrial average traded 24 points higher, or 0.15 percent, with Nike leading advancers and Walt Disney the greatest laggard.
The S&P 500 rose 11 points, or 0.6 percent, to trade at 1,863, with health care leading eight sectors higher and utilities lagging.
The Nasdaq gained 63 points, or 1.5 percent, to 4,333.
Gold futures for April delivery fell $5 to trade at $1,193.60 an ounce.
The CBOEVolatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 26.
Advancers led decliners 2 to 1 on the New York Stock Exchange, with and exchange volume of 431 million and a composite volume of 1.895 billion as of 12:08 p.m. ET.
— CNBC’s Patti Domm contributed to this report.
On tap this week:
Wednesday
Earnings: Time Warner, Cisco Systems, Twitter, Whole Foods, Tesla Motors, Sealed Air, Owens Corning, Nissan, Pioneer Natural Resources, iRobot, Flowers Foods, Rayonier, Zynga
1 p.m.: 10-year note auction
1:30 p.m.: San Francisco Fed John Williams on health and the economy
2 p.m.: Federal budget
Thursday
Earnings: PepsiCo, Kellogg, Nokia, Molson Coors, Time Inc, Groupon, Pandora, Zillow, Teva Pharma, Borg Warner, Advance Auto Parts, CBS, KKR, FireEye, AIG, Activision Blizzard
8:30 a.m.: Initial claims
10 a.m.: Fed Chair Janet Yellen testifies before Senate Banking Committee
1 p.m.: 30-year bond auction
Friday
Earnings: Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Calpine, Buckeye Partners, Interpublic, Ventas, Brookfield Asset Management
8:30 a.m.: Retail sales; import prices
10 a.m.: Consumer sentiment; business inventories; New York Fed President William Dudley speaks on household debt and credit
*Planner subject to change.
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