28 Jul
Daily Market Commentary

Week-In-Review: Stocks End Mixed As Earnings Continue In Droves

Stocks End Mixed As Earnings Continue In Droves

The market ended mixed last week as investors digested a slew of earnings and economic data. So far, earnings are mixed: Netflix, Facebook, Amazon, and Google reported earnings and Netflix and Facebook are up, but the others are down. Several other well-known stocks reported earnings last week with a mixed reaction as well. For the week, the Dow ended higher but the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and small-cap Russell 2000 fell. Near term, the market looks a tad overbought and due for a little pullback. The next level of resistance to watch is the 50 day moving average lines for the major indices.

Mon-Wed Action:

On Monday, stocks ended mixed as the Nasdaq rallied while the Dow and S&P 500 ended slightly lower. After the close, Alphabet (GOOG), Google’s parent company, reported earnings and the stock fell on the big EU fine. Stocks rallied on Tuesday after Caterpillar (CAT), General Motors (GM) and McDonald’s (MCD) rallied while 3M (MMM) fell on earnings. Overall, it is a net positive to see the major indices end higher. Stocks rallied on Wednesday after the Fed kept rates unchanged and said they will begin unwinding their massive balance sheet “relatively soon.” Elsewhere, a slew of earnings were released and, on average, the results remained mostly positive. After the bell, Facebook (FB) jumped after reporting earnings.

Thur & Fri Action:

Stocks opened higher on Thursday but closed lower after sellers showed up in a slew of tech stocks. Facebook was the standout winner while other stocks got hit such as Twitter (TWTR) in techland. The market is getting overbought/extended to the upside and is way overdue to pullback. After the close, Amazon fell after reporting earnings. Stocks slid on Friday as investors digested the latest round of economic and earnings data. Before the open, the government said, GDP grew by +2.6%, which matched estimates. As expected, Amazon dragged the market lower.

Market Outlook: All Eyes On Earnings

The bulls showed up and defended important support in June which is very bullish for the market. As we have said several times over the past month, as long as support holds, the bulls remain in control of this market. As always, keep your losses small and never argue with the tape. Get Our Free e-Book: Learn How To Buy Leading Stocks…EARLY. Get It Here…

21 Jul
Daily Market Commentary

Week-In-Review: Stocks End Mixed As Earnings Season Begins

Stocks End Mixed As Earnings Season Begins

The broader indices ended mixed while small cap stocks tried to breakout last week as earnings season officially began. Just to recap the first full week of earnings, the data is mixed. So far, nearly all of the big banks reported earnings, and nearly all of them, except for Morgan Stanley, fell on the day they reported. That weighed on the Dow and S&P 500 as investors digested the data. Elsewhere, Netflix jumped to a fresh record high after reporting a big jump in subscribers. Meanwhile, Qualcomm, Microsoft, and eBay all fell after reporting earnings. The good news for the bulls is that the market remains exceptionally strong and the major indices are trading just below their record highs.

Mon-Wed Action:

Stocks rallied on Monday helping the Nasdaq post a 7-day win streak as earnings season continues in droves. So far, analysts are expecting Q2 earnings to grow by +6.2%. Stocks were mixed on Tuesday as the Nasdaq rallied while the Dow fell. Bank of America and Goldman Sachs both fell after reporting earnings while shares of Netflix soared after reporting a big jump in subscribers. On Wednesday, the major indices hit new highs on the back of the latest round of earnings. Elsewhere, Housing starts vaulted +8.3% last month, hitting their highest level since February 2017. Separately, Mortgage applications, rose +6.3%.

Thur & Fri Action:

On Thursday, stocks were quiet as investors digested the latest meeting from the European Central Bank (ECB) and waited for the latest round of earnings to be released. Separately, Bloomberg reported that special counsel Robert Mueller is looking into the business dealings of President Donald Trump, Jared Kushner and other associates. This comes a day after Trump warned Muller against it during an interview with the New York Times on Wednesday. Stocks fell on Friday as investors digested the latest round of earnings data. General Electric (GE), Microsoft (MSFT), eBay (EBAY), and a few other well known stocks fell hard after reporting earnings.

Market Outlook: All Eyes On Earnings

The bulls showed up and defended important support in June which is very bullish for the market. As we have said several times over the past month, as long as support holds, the bulls remain in control of this market. As always, keep your losses small and never argue with the tape. Get Our Free e-Book: Learn How To Buy Leading Stocks…EARLY. Get It Here…

19 Jul
Media Quotes

Reuters: Nasdaq set to hit record high as tech stocks rise

Wednesday 7.19.17
(Reuters) – The Nasdaq was set to hit a fresh record on Wednesday, helped by a rise in technology stocks, while the S&P and the Dow were headed for a slightly higher opening as investors focused on earnings.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq closed at a record high on Tuesday helped by a jump in Netflix (NFLX.O), with the index posting its longest streak of gains since February 2015.
The S&P tech sector has been the best performing sector this year despite concerns about stretched valuations as investors look for growth sectors immune to policy uncertainties.
“Earnings so far have been a mixed bag with most of the big banks down, causing the S&P and Dow to underperform slightly in the near term,” said Adam Sarhan, chief executive officer at 50 Park Investments.
“On the other hand, Netflix’s strong results has caused money to move to tech stocks in anticipation of stronger earnings. If the big names such as Alphabet, Facebook, Amazon are able to show growth in an otherwise low-growth environment then investors will pay for these stocks.”
All three big tech names will report results next week.
Dow e-minis 1YMc1 were up 1 point, or 0 percent, with 13,923 contracts changing hands at 8:12 a.m. ET (1212 GMT).
S&P 500 e-minis ESc1 were up 1.25 points, or 0.05 percent, with 90,769 contracts traded.
Nasdaq 100 e-minis NQc1 were up 14 points, or 0.24 percent, on volume of 22,317 contracts.
Investors will continue to focus on quarterly earnings to see if high valuations are justified in the face of mixed economic data, tepid inflation and policy gridlock in Washington.
Analysts estimate an 8.5 percent rise in second-quarter earnings and a 4.7 percent increase in revenue for S&P 500 companies from a year earlier.
This follows a robust first quarter when U.S. companies posted the fastest rate of growth in earnings since 2011, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
TMobile (TMUS.O), Qualcomm (QCOM.O) and American Express (AXP.N) are among the companies that will report results after the bell.
Shares of IBM (IBM.N) fell 2.7 percent in premarket trading after the company’s quarterly revenue came in below expectations.
United Continental Holdings (UAL.N) was down 4.3 percent, a day after the airline’s quarterly results beat expectation but costs rose.
Morgan Stanley (MS.N) rose 2.3 percent after the bank’s quarterly profit beat expectations and bond trading revenue declines were modest compared with arch-rival Goldman Sachs’ (GS.N).
Discovery Communications (DISCA.O) was up 7.5 percent after a source told Reuters the company and Scripps Networks Interactive (SNI.O) are engaged in merger talks. Scripps was up 13.4 percent.
Link: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks-idUSKBN1A413N

14 Jul
Daily Market Commentary

Week-In-Review: Stocks Rally As Earnings Season Begins

Stocks Rally As Earnings Season Begins

Stocks ended higher last week as investors digested a busy week of macro data and earnings season officially began.  The big bullish catalyst last week came from global central banks. The U.S. Fed and the European Central Bank (ECB) made dovish comments which prompted buyers to return from a 4-week hiatus. First, Janet Yellen softened her recent slightly hawkish stance when she gave a somewhat dovish testimony on Capitol Hill. Second, the ECB said it is ready to print money (continue QE) for the next few years. This was a bullish one-two punch that helped buyers return to the market. Earnings season officially kicked off last week and a slew of companies will be reporting over the next several weeks. Remember, in addition to analyzing the data, we focus more on how the market reacts to the data. Three of the big banks opened lower on Friday after reporting earnings: Wells Fargo (WFC), JP Morgan (JPM) and Citigroup (C). So far, that is not ideal but we’ll see how it plays out over the next few weeks.

Mon-Wed Action:

Stocks closed mostly higher on Monday as investors prepared for earnings season. Amazon’s stock jumped nearly 2% as the company got set for its big Prime Day sales. Prime Day features big deals for Amazon’s Prime customers and tries to encourage non-prime members to join prime. Needless to say, Prime Day was a huge success for the company. On Tuesday, stocks ended higher in a volatile session after Donald Trump Jr. released a chain of emails that showed direct connection with a Russian lawyer. Intra-day, the Dow fell about 100 points but recovered by the close, again showing how strong the market is right now. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said U.S. banks are still too big to fail which barely moved the needle. Stocks rallied nicely on Wednesday after Janet Yellen gave dovish testimony on Capitol Hill. Yellen basically said the Fed is ready to shift back to an easy money policies if conditions deteriorate. Big money also flowed into a slew of beaten down tech stocks as they come back into play.

Thur & Fri Action:

On Thursday, stocks rallied helping the Dow hit a fresh record high. The ECB said it is ready to continue QE for the next few years which is also a very dovish stance. Remember, the entire move from the historic 2009 low was based on easy money from global central banks. So the fact that they are still ready to shift back to an ultra-easy money stance was enough to bring buyers back into the market. Stocks edged higher on Friday after Wells Fargo, JP Morgan and Citigroup all reported earnings. Interestingly, all three stocks fell in the morning but the broader market still rallied.

Market Outlook: Bulls Defend Support

The bulls showed up and defended important support in June which is very bullish for the market. As we have said several times over the past month, as long as support holds, the bulls remain in control of this market. As always, keep your losses small and never argue with the tape. Get Our Free e-Book: Learn How To Buy Leading Stocks…EARLY. Get It Here…

13 Jul
Media Quotes

CNBC: US stocks rise after Target's brighter outlook boosts retail shares

Thursday, July 13, 2017

  • Shares of Target climbed 4.8 percent after the company said it expects “modest increase” in second-quarter comparable-store sales.
  • The SPDR S&P Retail exchange-traded fund (XRT) gained 2.3 percent. Shares of Wal-Mart, Kohl’s, Costco and Macy’s rose as well.
  • Wall Street also set its sights on Washington. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen testified in front of Congress for the second straight day.
U.S. equities closed higher on Thursday as retailers rose, led by Target.
The Dow Jones industrial average rose 20.95 points, notching a record close at 21,553.09. Wal-Mart, Goldman Sachs and Apple contributed the most gains on the Dow. The S&P 500 gained 0.19 percent to close at 2,447.83, with Target among the best performers.
Shares of Target climbed 4.8 percent after the company said it expects “modest increase” in second-quarter comparable-store sales, a metric closely watched by Wall Street for retail stocks. Target added it expects second-quarter earnings to come in above the high end of the forecast. The stock had traded more than 6 percent higher in the premarket.

Symbol
Name
Price
Change
%Change
DJIA Dow Industrials 21553.09 20.95 0.10%
S&P 500 S&P 500 Index 2447.83 4.58 0.19%
NASDAQ NASDAQ Composite 6274.44 13.27 0.21%
“Target’s news is a much-needed breath of fresh air for retailers,” said Adam Sarhan, CEO of 50 Park Investments.
The SPDR S&P Retail exchange-traded fund (XRT) gained 2.3 percent and posted its best trading day of the year. Shares of Wal-Mart, Kohl’s, Costco and Macy’s rose as well.
Brick-and-mortar retailers have been hit hard this year. In 2017, the XRT has fallen more than 11 percent. Macy’s, meanwhile, has shed approximately 40 percent.
The Nasdaq composite closed 0.2 percent higher at 6,274.44, as shares of Snap jumped 2.9 percent. The Dow transports, meanwhile, hit a record high earlier in the session.
Wall Street also set its sights on Washington. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen testified in front of Congress for the second straight day. Her prepared remarks from Wednesday ignited a rally in the U.S. stock market.
“We see yesterday’s breakout above intraday resistance as a catalyst for a subsequent breakout to new highs, which would yield a short-term measured move projection of about 2507 for the SPX,” said Katie Stockton, chief technical strategist at BTIG, in a note.
The S&P jumped 0.85 percent Wednesday and the Dow notched intraday and closing records.
Yellen hinted Wednesday that future interest rate hikes would be more gradual, adding the Fed would start unwinding its $4.5 trillion bond portfolio “relatively soon.”
“It is the ‘relatively soon’ part that begs the question of whether it starts on July 26th when the FOMC next meets or two months later at the September meeting. Either way, we’re getting more tightening within the next few months,” said Peter Boockvar, chief market analyst at The Lindsey Group, in a note.
In economic news, the U.S. producer price index rose 0.1 percent in June. Economists polled by Reuters expected the index to remain flat. Weekly jobless claims, meanwhile, came in just above expectations at 247,000.
Wall Street also looked ahead to the start of earnings season. JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo and Citigroup are set to report Friday morning.
“Earnings season is first and foremost on people’s minds right now,” said Robert Pavlik, chief investment strategist at Boston Private. “The big banks will direct the market in the short term” as earnings season gets under way.
—CNBC’s Terri Cullen and Lauren Thomas contributed to this report.
Link: http://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/13/us-stocks-retail-target-fed.html
10 Jul
Media Quotes

Reuters: US STOCKS-U.S. stocks little changed; healthcare down, techs up

* 2nd-qtr earnings kick off this week
* Dollar touches 2-month high
* Yellen to testify later in the week
* Indexes down: Dow down 0.07 pct, S&P 0.04 pct, Nasdaq 0.08 pct (Updates to open)
By Sweta Singh
July 10 U.S. stocks swung between gains and losses on Monday as technology stocks buoyed the Nasdaq, while losses in healthcare weighed on the S&P 500 and the Dow.
Seven of the 11 major S&P sectors were higher, with the healthcare index’s 0.22 percent fall leading the decliners. The infotech index was up 0.27 percent.
President Donald Trump’s effort to roll back Obamacare faced growing obstacles on Monday as Republicans remained divided over how to curb the costs of their proposed healthcare bill and prevent millions from losing coverage.
Investors were wary of making big bets ahead of the start of the earnings season, with big U.S. banks including JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo and Citigroup reporting on Friday.
In a significant victory for the banking industry, the Fed late last month approved plans from the 34 largest U.S. banks to use extra capital for stock buybacks, dividends and other purposes.
“I think what’s happening today is the markets are in a wait-and-see approach ahead of the next big catalyst, which is earnings season,” said Adam Sarhan, chief executive officer at 50 Park Investments in Florida.
“The way I see what’s happening today is just a little bit of rotation occurring where you’re selling leadership and you’re buying undervalued, or you’re hunting for value.”
The three major indexes are trading close to record levels, boosted by strong economic data and robust corporate performance in the first quarter.
Markets closed on a high on Friday after a payrolls report gave investors more confidence in the strength of the U.S. economy.
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 222,000 jobs last month, a report by the U.S. Labor Department showed on Friday. It was the second biggest increase this year and topped economists’ expectations for a 179,000 gain.
The dollar climbed to a two-month high against the Japanese yen on Monday as a robust jobs data propped up U.S. Treasury yields.
Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s semi-annual testimony is the key highlight of this week for investors looking for cues on further rate hikes. She will testify on Wednesday and Thursday.
At 9:57 a.m. ET (13:57 GMT) the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 14.25 points, or 0.07 percent, at 21,400.09, the S&P 500 was down 1.03 points, or 0.042 percent, at 2,424.15 and the Nasdaq Composite was down 5.05 points, or 0.08 percent, at 6,148.03.
United Health was down 0.34 percent at $187.23 after the President Trump’s plan to replace Obamacare continued to face obstacles.
Abercrombie & Fitch shares were down 19 percent at $9.85 after the teen apparel retailer terminated discussion on a potential deal following a review.
ClubCorp shares were up 30 percent at $17.05 after the owner of private golf and country clubs got a takeover offer from private equity firm Apollo Global Management LLC.
Declining issues outnumbered advancers on the New York Stock Exchange by 1,359 to 1,255. On the Nasdaq, 1,610 issues fell and 868 advanced.
The S&P 500 index showed 27 new 52-week highs and 11 new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 81 new highs and 69 new lows. (Reporting by Sweta Singh; Additional reporting by Anya Tharakan in Bengaluru; Editing by Arun Koyyur)
Link:
http://www.reuters.com/article/usa-stocks-idUSL4N1K1447

07 Jul
Daily Market Commentary

Week-In-Review: Stocks End Mostly Higher Ahead of Earnings Season

Stocks End Mixed To Mostly Higher Ahead of Earnings Season

Stocks ended mixed to mostly higher on the first week of the third quarter. Stepping back, the market remains split: tech stocks remain under a little pressure while the Dow Industrials, S&P 500 and Russell 2000 all closed above their respective 50 DMA lines. The bulls showed up on Friday and defended the 50 DMA line for the S&P 500 which is a near term positive. The market is simply pulling back to digest the recent and very strong post-election rally.  At this point, the pullback remains relatively mild/healthy. One or two good up days will easily set the market up for another leg higher. Conversely, if the selling continues and the recent lows are breached, then lower prices will likely follow. I do want to note that the Nasdaq is sending mixed signals. On one hand, it is tracing out a somewhat bearish head and shoulders top pattern and it is also tracing out a somewhat bullish double bottom continuation pattern. Until we see more heavy selling coupled with more technical damage, odds favor we still head higher from here. On another note, the big macro catalyst that we have to deal with in the second half of 2017 (and beyond) is a slightly more hawkish environment from global central banks. The era of ultra-easy money is behind us (until the next crisis hits). On a shorter to more intermediate term basis, the next big catalyst ahead of us is earnings season.

Mon-Wed Action:

Stocks rallied nicely on Monday as the market closed early ahead of the July 4th holiday. History tells us that July 3rd tends to have a strong upward bias. Since the 1920’s, the market has been positive nearly 73% of the time. Elsewhere, economic data was mixed. The IHS Markit U.S. Manufacturing PMI index for June, slid to 52.0 from 52.7 in May. The ISM manufacturing index for June, rose to 57.8 from 54.9 in May. Monthly auto sales leveled off which sent a slew of auto-repair stocks lower. The stock market was closed on Tuesday in observance of the July 4th holiday. Stocks opened lower and closed higher on Wednesday as investors returned from the holiday. Factory Orders came in -0.8%, missing estimates for -0.5%. Elsewhere, the Fed released the minutes of its latest meeting. The minutes showed the Fed is a little more hawkish than initially expected.

Thur & Fri Action:

On Thursday, stocks fell hard as investors digested a slew of economic data and the European Central Bank (ECB) was a little more hawkish than expected. Crude oil also plunged hard for the week which dragged a slew of energy stocks lower. Stocks rallied nicely on Friday after the jobs report beat estimates. The Labor Department said U.S. employers added 222,000 new jobs last month, beating estimates for 170,000. That capped the strongest quarter for jobs since 2010. Separately, the G-20 started their much anticipated meeting.

Market Outlook: Bulls Defend Support – For Now

The bulls showed up and defended important support last week (50 dma line) in the S&P 500. As long as support holds, the bulls remain in control of this market. As always, keep your losses small and never argue with the tape. Get Our Free e-Book: Learn How To Buy Leading Stocks…EARLY. Get It Here…

03 Jul
Blog

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01 Jul
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