The Good, The Bad, and The Lovely; Week Ending 08.30.13

Good, Bad and Lovely

The Lovely:

Stocks are getting weaker, not stronger.

The Good:

1. Leading stocks are acting well
2. The Dallas Fed manufacturing survey rose to 5.0 which beat the Street’s forecast for 4.5
3. Case for the Fed to taper in September has weakened
4. The Richmond Fed Manufacturing index, which measures manufacturing activity in region, jumped to 14, easily beating estimates for an unchanged reading.
5. Weekly jobless claims slid by 6k to 331k, beating estimates for 332k.
6.  Midwest business activity rose to 53 in August, matching estimates

The Bad:

1.  Dow Jones Industrial Average & S&P 500 have worst monthly decline since May 2012!
2. Turmoil in the Middle East
3. Durable Goods plunged -7.3% easily missing the Street’s estimate for a -0.4% decline.
4. The S&P Case/Shiller Index showed that home prices rose on average 0.9% in June, missing estimates for a gain of 1%. However, prices jumped 12.1% vs the same period last year.
5. Pending Home Sales slid 1.3% in July, missing estimates for a decline of -1%.
6. Consumer sentiment missed estimates and fell to 82.1 in August, from 85.1 in July.
7. Consumer spending rose 0.1% in July, missed the Street’s estimate for a gain of 0.3%

Worst Month For Stocks Since May 2012!

SPX- Worst Monthly Decline Since May 2012STOCK MARKET COMMENTARY:
FRIDAY, AUGUST 30, 2013

Stocks were under pressure for most of August as a slew of external “fears” plagued Wall Street. Here are some of the “fears” that hurt stocks: Fed Taper, Lackluster earnings growth, Potential War Brewing in the Middle East, & higher energy prices, to name a few. We are watching very closely further deterioration because so far the first 8 months of 2013 are eerily similar to 1987.

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1987 VS 2013: A QUICK LOOK

It is important to note that Jan-Aug 2013 looks eerily similar to Jan-Aug of 1987. We are not there yet but something we are watching closely. Here are a few facts for your review: In 1987, the S&P 500 soared over 30% from Jan-Aug. So far, in 2013, it vaulted 20% during that period. In 1987, the S&P 500 topped out at the end of August then broke below its 50 DMA line in September. Then support was broken on Oct 14, 1987 when it took out its recent lows – just above 308 (& no that is not a typo!). Then it broke and closed below its 200 DMA line on October 15th. The following Monday was “Black Monday” where the S&P 500 lost an incredible -15% in one day! We are not sure how the rest of 2013 plays out but we will be on the look out for further weakness.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY’S ACTION: Stocks Bounce From Oversold Levels

Stocks negatively reversed on Monday (opened higher and closed lower) after Secretary of State John Kerry said the use of chemical weapons in Syria was not acceptable. The VIX, also known as the fear gauge, jumped on the news which suggests the bears are getting stronger. In addition, the DJIA & SPX failed at their respective 50 DMA lines which is not encouraging. In M&A news, Amgen (AMGN) surged over 10% after they made an offer to acquire Onyx Pharmaceuticals (ONXX) for over $10B. Economic data was lousy, durable goods plunged -7.3% easily missing the Street’s estimate for a -0.4% decline. separately, the Dallas Fed manufacturing survey rose to 5.0 which beat the Street’s forecast for 4.5.
Stocks plunged on Tuesday, taking out the recent lows and falling decisively below their respective 50 DMA lines after news spread that an air strike might occur as soon as Thursday. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel told the BBC that the US military is “ready to go” if Obama orders action in Syria. The VIX, Crude oil, and Gold soared on the news. Economic data was quiet. The S&P Case/Shiller Index showed that home prices rose on average 0.9% in June, matching the Street’s estimate. The report showed that home prices jumped 12.1% vs the same period last year. Elsewhere, consumer confidence rose to 81.5, beating estimates for 78. The Richmond Fed Manufacturing index, which measures manufacturing activity in region, jumped to 14, easily beating estimates for an unchanged reading.
Stocks rallied on Wednesday as geopolitical risks eased. Gold and Oil prices eased after surging to multi-year highs on Monday and Tuesday. Pending home sales slide 1.3% in July , missing estimates for a decline of -1%.

THURSDAY & FRIDAY’S ACTION: Syria Fears Linger

On Thursday, stocks edged higher as gold and crude slid as the geopolitical risks continued to ease. President Barack Obama said he remained undecided on what to do in Syria but said a “tailored, limited military strike could be enough to deter any future use of chemical weapons. Weekly jobless claims slid by 6k to 331k, beating estimates for 332k which bodes well for the jobs market. The Commerce Department said Q2 GDP rose by 2.5%, beating the initial estimate for a gain of 1.7%. Stocks fell on Friday as fresh concern spread regarding Syria ahead of the long holiday weekend.

MARKET OUTLOOK: BEARS ARE GETTING STRONGER

The market still has some issues as the DJIA & SPX are now “living” below their respective 50 DMA lines. Defensive is paramount until the major averages trade, close, and stay above their respective 50 dma lines. Our goal is to remain in sync with the broader trend of the market (up or down) and not get caught up with the minutiae of changing labels on the market status very often. As always, keep your losses small and never argue with the tape.

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The Essential Hallmarks of a Good Leader by Jamie Dimon

DimonOver the years I have written about the importance of strong leadership in business and the essential qualities a leader must have. These qualities are timeless, and they are especially important when times get tough. In the face of difficult challenges, great leaders do not retrench. Just the opposite – they step up.
In a great company, you need to institutionalize and perpetuate a great culture and excellent leaders. To do this, you must do several things well, including the training, the retention of talent and the creation of a company that is continually learning. You must have a culture of character and integrity. This comes from fostering an open environment, where people speak their minds freely, to treating people with respect – at all levels, from the CEO to clerks in the mailroom – to setting the highest standards combined with recognizing and admitting mistakes.
Leadership is an honor, a privilege and a deep obligation. When leaders make mistakes, a lot of people can get hurt. Being true to oneself and avoiding self-deception are as important to a leader as having people to turn to for thoughtful, unbiased advice. I believe social intelligence and “emotional quotient,” or EQ, matter in management. EQ can include empathy, clarity of thought, compassion and strength of character.
Good people want to work for good leaders. Bad leaders can drive out almost anyone who’s good because they are corrosive to an organization; and since many are manipulative and deceptive, it often is a challenge to find them and root them out.
At many of the best companies throughout history, the constant creation of good leaders is what has enabled the organizations to stand the true test of greatness – the test of time. Look at our great military. We love hiring veterans – more than 5,000 in the past couple years. These veterans are outstanding employees and team members.
Below are some essential hallmarks of a good leader that I have written about in my previous letters to shareholders. While we cannot be great at all of these traits – I know I’m not – to be successful, a leader needs to get most of them right.

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Discipline
This means holding regular business reviews, talent reviews and team meetings and constantly striving for improvement – from having a strong work ethic to making lists and doing real, detailed follow-up. Leadership is like exercise; the effect has to be sustained for it to do any good.
Fortitude
This attribute often is missing in leaders: they need to have a fierce resolve to act. It means driving change, fighting bureaucracy and politics, and taking ownership and responsibility.
High standards
Abraham Lincoln said, “Things may come
to those who wait … but only the things left
by those who hustle.” Leaders must set high standards of performance all the time, at a detailed level and with a real sense of urgency. Leaders must compare themselves with the best. Huge institutions have a tendency toward slowing things down, which demands that leaders push forward constantly. True leaders must set the highest standards of integrity
– those standards are not embedded in the business but require conscious choices. Such standards demand that we treat customers
and employees the way we would want to be treated ourselves or the way we would want our own mother to be treated.
Ability to face facts
In a cold-blooded, honest way, leaders emphasize the negatives at management meetings and focus on what can be improved (of course, it’s okay to celebrate the successes, too). All reporting must be accurate, and all relevant facts must be reported, with full disclosure and on one set of books.
Openness
Sharing information all the time is vital –
we should debate the issues and alternative approaches, not the facts. The best leaders kill bureaucracy – it can cripple an organization 
– and watch for signs of politics, like sidebar meetings after the real meeting because people wouldn’t speak their mind at the right time.
Equally important, leaders get out in the field regularly so as not to lose touch. Anyone in a meeting should feel free to speak his or her mind without fear of offending anyone else. 
I once heard someone describe the importance of having “at least one truth-teller at the table.” Well, if there is just one truth-teller at the table, you’re in trouble – everyone should be a truth-teller.
Setup for success
An effective leader makes sure all the right people are in the room – from Legal, Systems and Operations to Human Resources, Finance and Risk. It’s also necessary to set up the right structure. When tri-heads report to co-heads, all decisions become political – a setup for failure, not success.
Morale-building
High morale is developed through fixing problems, dealing directly and honestly with issues, earning respect and winning. It does not come from overpaying people or delivering sweet talk, which permits the avoidance of hard decision making and fosters passive-aggressive behaviors.
Loyalty, meritocracy and teamwork
While I deeply believe in loyalty, it often is misused. Loyalty should be to the principles for which someone stands and to the institution: Loyalty to an individual frequently is another form of cronyism. Leaders demand a lot from their employees and should be loyal to them – but loyalty and mutual respect are two-way streets. Loyalty to employees does not mean that a manager owes them a particular job. Loyalty to employees means building a healthy, vibrant company; telling them the truth; and giving them meaningful work, training and opportunities. If employees fall down, we should get them the help they need. Meritocracy and teamwork also are critical but frequently misunderstood. Meritocracy means putting the best person in the job, which promotes a sense of justice in the organization rather than the appearance of cynicism: “here they go again, taking care of their friends.” Finally, while teamwork is important and often code for “getting along,” equally important is an individual’s ability to have the courage to stand alone and do the right thing.
Fair treatment
The best leaders treat all people properly and respectfully, from clerks to CEOs. Everyone needs to help everyone else at the company because everyone’s collective purpose is to serve clients. When strong leaders consider promoting people, they pick those who are respected and ask themselves, Would I want to work for him? Would I want my kid to report to her?
Humility
Leaders need to acknowledge those who came before them and helped shape the enterprise – it’s not all their own doing. There’s a lot of luck involved in anyone’s success, and a little humility is important. The overall goal must be to help build a great company – then we can do more for our employees, our customers and our communities.
The grey area of leadership
There are many aspects of the leadership process that are open for interpretation. This grey area contributes to the complexity of the challenges that leaders – and those who govern them – face. I would like to share with you where I stand with regard to a few of these issues.
Successful leaders are hard to find
There are examples of individuals who have been thrust, wholly unprepared, into positions of leadership and actually perform well
– I think of President Harry Truman, among others. I would submit, however, that relying on luck is a risky proposition. History shows that bad or inexperienced leaders can produce disastrous results. While there are possibly innate and genetic parts of leadership (perhaps broad intelligence and natural energy), other parts are deeply embedded in the internal values of an individual; for example, work ethic, integrity, knowledge and good judgment. Many leaders have worked their entire lives to get where they are, and while perhaps some achieved their stature through accident or politics, that is not true for most. Anyone on a sports team, in government or in virtually any other endeavor knows when he or she encounters the rare combination of emotional skill, integrity and knowledge that makes a leader.
Successful leaders are working to build something
Most leaders I know are working to build something of which they can be proud. They usually work hard, not because they must
but because they want to do so; they set high standards because as long as leaders are going to do something, they are going to do the best they can. They believe in things larger than themselves, and the highest obligation is to the team or the organization. Leaders demand loyalty, not to themselves but to the cause for which they stand.
Nonetheless, compensation does matter
While I agree that money should not be the primary motivation for leaders, it is not realistic to say that compensation should not count at any level. People have responsibilities to themselves and to their families. They also have a deep sense of “compensation justice,” which means they often are upset when they feel they are not fairly compensated against peers both within and outside the company. There are markets for talent, just like products, and a company must pay a reasonable price to compete.
Big business needs entrepreneurs, too
The popular perception is that entrepreneurs – those who believe in free enterprise – exist only in small companies and that entrepreneurs in small companies should be free to pursue happiness or monetary gain as appropriate. Free enterprise, entrepreneurship and the pursuit of happiness also exist in most large enterprises. And you, our shareholders, should insist on it. Without the capacity to innovate, respond to new and rapidly changing markets, and anticipate enormous challenges, large companies would cease to exist. The people who achieve these objectives want to be compensated fairly, just as they would be if they had built a successful start-up.
Performance isn’t always easy to judge
Managers responsible for businesses must necessarily evaluate individuals along a spectrum of factors. Did these individuals act with integrity? Did they hire and train good people? Did they build the systems and products that will strengthen the company, not just in the current year but in future years? Did they develop real management teams? In essence, are they building something with sustainable, long-term value? Making these determinations requires courage and judgment.
One of the reasons I am so proud of our company is because of our great people, our great leaders. These past five years have been a period of turmoil, crisis and stress for our industry and sometimes for our company. What our people have accomplished during these difficult circumstances has been extraordinary – a testament to the critical importance of strong leaders.
Source: http://www.linkedin.com/today/post/article/20130613121131-257626722-the-essential-hallmarks-of-a-good-leader?trk=eml-mktg-inf-m-top13-0827-p11
 

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3 Things I’ve Learned From Warren Buffett

GATESBy Bill Gates
June 12, 2013
In May, I went to Omaha for the annual Berkshire Hathaway shareholders meeting. It’s always a lot of fun, and not just because of the ping-pong matches and the newspaper-throwing contest I have with Warren Buffett. It’s also fun because I get to learn from Warren and gain insight into how he thinks.
Here are three things I’ve learned from Warren over the years:
1. It’s not just about investing.
The first thing people learn from Warren, of course, is how to think about investing. That’s natural, given his amazing track record. Unfortunately, that’s where a lot of people stop, and they miss out on the fact that he has a whole framework for business thinking that is very powerful. For example, he talks about looking for a company’s moat—its competitive advantage—and whether the moat is shrinking or growing. He says a shareholder has to act as if he owns the entire business, looking at the future profit stream and deciding what it’s worth. And you have to be willing to ignore the market rather than follow it, because you want to take advantage of the market’s mistakes—the companies that have been underpriced.
I have to admit, when I first met Warren, the fact that he had this framework was a real surprise to me. I met him at a dinner my mother had put together. On my way there, I thought, “Why would I want to meet this guy who picks stocks?” I thought he just used various market-related things—like volume, or how the price had changed over time—to make his decisions. But when we started talking that day, he didn’t ask me about any of those things. Instead he started asking big questions about the fundamentals of our business. “Why can’t IBM do what Microsoft does? Why has Microsoft been so profitable?” That’s when I realized he thought about business in a much more profound way than I’d given him credit for.
2. Use your platform.
A lot of business leaders write letters to their shareholders, but Warren is justly famous for his. Partly that’s because his natural good humor shines through. Partly it’s because people think it will help them invest better (and they’re right). But it’s also because he’s been willing to speak frankly and criticize things like stock options and financial derivatives. He’s not afraid to take positions, like his stand on raising taxes on the rich, that run counter to his self-interest. Warren inspired me to start writing my own annual letter about the foundation’s work. I still have a ways to go before mine is as good as Warren’s, but it’s been helpful to sit down once a year and explain the results we’re seeing, both good and bad.
3. Know how valuable your time is.
No matter how much money you have, you can’t buy more time. There are only 24 hours in everyone’s day. Warren has a keen sense of this. He doesn’t let his calendar get filled up with useless meetings. On the other hand, he’s very generous with his time for the people he trusts. He gives his close advisers at Berkshire his phone number, and they can just call him up and he’ll answer the phone.
Although Warren makes a point of meeting with dozens of university classes every year, not many people get to ask him for advice on a regular basis. I feel very lucky in that regard: The dialogue has been invaluable to me, and not only at Microsoft. When Melinda and I started our foundation, I turned to him for advice. We talked a lot about the idea that philanthropy could be just as impactful in its own way as software had been. It turns out that Warren’s brilliant way of looking at the world is just as useful in attacking poverty and disease as it is in building a business. He’s one of a kind.
Source: http://www.linkedin.com/today/post/article/20130612065727-251749025-three-things-i-ve-learned-from-warren-buffett?trk=eml-mktg-inf-m-top13-0827-p2
 
 

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Feedback- Your Opinion Matters

Dear Reader:
In an effort to improve the information you receive – please let us know what you like and do not like about our email updates.
We welcome all feedback (positive and negative).

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Please send your feedback to: Info@SarhanCapital.com.
Thank you,
Adam Sarhan
Founder & CEO
Sarhan Capital
URL: www.SarhanCapital.com
Twitter: @adamsarhan

Adam Sarhan Reuters Quote: Gold could rally further after breaking above $1,400: Analysts

ReutersBy Reuters | 27 Aug, 2013, 02.36AM IST
NEW YORK: Gold’s break above $1,400 an ounce on Monday for the first time since June 7, and a bullish “cup and handle” chart pattern, suggest more gains are in store for the precious metal which may have bottomed out two months ago, technical analysts said. 
“There is a very high likelihood that we saw the near-term low on June 28, the last day of second quarter, as many big investors capitulated,” said Adam Sarhan, chief executive of Sarhan Capital, referring to a final wave of selling at the market’s bottom before prices rose again. 
After touching $1,406 per ounce briefly on Monday morning, bullion has recovered over $200 since the end of June when prices hit three-year lows of $1,180 amid talk that funds were being forced to sell to meet client redemptions.
Hedge fund managers, including gold bull John Paulson, sold stakes in SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s biggest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, in the second quarter, betting that the Federal Reserve would end its stimulus program as the world’s No. 1 economy improved.
Since then, gold prices have staged a sharp recovery as lackluster US economic indicators including new home sales on Friday and durable goods data on Monday added to confusion over when the Fed may curb its bond-buying stimulus.
On Aug. 9, the yellow metal’s breakout of its “handle” coincided with its breach of its 50-day moving average, indicating gold had bottomed and hedge-fund managers could aggressively buy back their gold positions, Sarhan said. 
With gold now trading above its 50-day moving average and below its 200-day moving average, the 50-day is heading for a break above the 200-day, a significant bullish formation known as “golden cross” which would suggest the metal’s momentum is growing. 
However, analysts with a less-certain outlook say bullion needs to clear major resistance levels before the market can assume a better technical footing for the long term.
Bill O’Neill, a partner in commodities investment firm LOGIC Advisors, said $1,425 is a more important price level than $1,400.
Rick Bensignor, head of trading strategies at Wells Fargo Securities, is watching for it to break the 200-week moving average around $1,471 an ounce.
“I can’t say it’s out of the woods yet. Technically it’s too early to necessarily say that this is anything more than a short-term bounce in a somewhat negative market,” Bensignor said.
 
Source: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/commodities/gold-could-rally-further-after-breaking-above-1400-analysts/articleshow/22079644.cms
 

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5 Reasons Why Stocks Are Getting Weaker, Not Stronger

Weaker- Not StrongerStocks Are Getting Weaker, Not Stronger:

1. Possible August Top- Similar to 1987
2. Technicals & Fundamentals are deteriorating- 50 DMA line was support and is now resistance
3. Recent lows are breached and leaders under pressure
4. Crude Oil is surging – Higher energy prices act as an indirect tax on businesses and consumers.
5. Interest rate sensitive areas of the market, Financials, Transports, small and mid caps are all under pressure
Final Note: In our view, the likelihood the Fed tapers in Sept has reduced markedly.
 

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Week In Review: Stocks Positively ReverseFor The Week & Close Above 50 DMA line

SPX - 8.26.13- time fo r abounce- stocks positively reverse for the weekSTOCK MARKET COMMENTARY:
FRIDAY, AUGUST 23, 2013

Stocks positively reversed (opened lower and closed higher for the week) as interest rates negatively reversed (opened higher and closed lower) as fear eased regarding when the Fed will taper. Normally, “reversals” after a decent move signal a short-term change in trend may be on the horizon. As long as stocks stay above last week’s lows and rates stay below last week’s high we should expect stocks to bounce and rates to fall. However, if those levels are breached we should expect stocks to fall further and rates to edge higher. In the middle of August, several leading stocks fell in heavy volume which is not ideal for the bulls. At this point, we know the Bernanke Put (or global Central Bank easy-money put) is getting weaker by the day (as we inevitably get closer to when the Fed will taper). It will be interesting to see how the market reacts to the news.

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1987 VS 2013: A QUICK LOOK

It is important to note that Jan-Aug 2013 looks eerily similar to Jan-Aug of 1987. We are not there yet but something we are watching closely. Here are a few facts for your review: In 1987, the S&P 500 soared over 30% from Jan-Aug. So far, in 2013, it vaulted 20% during that period. In 1987, the S&P 500 topped out at the end of August then broke below its 50 DMA line in September. Then support was broken on Oct 14, 1987 when it took out its recent lows – just above 308 (& no that is not a typo!). Then it broke and closed below its 200 DMA line on October 15th. The following Monday was “Black Monday” where the S&P 500 lost an incredible -15% in one day! We are not sure how the rest of 2013 plays out but we will be on the look out for further weakness.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY’S ACTION: STOCKS FALL ON TAPER TALK

On Monday, the DJIA & SPX logged their first 4-day losing streak of 2013 as the benchmark S&P 500 index slid and closed below its 50 DMA line. The one caveat is that, on average, the recent decline in the market has occurred on relatively light volume. Volume is a critical indicator of institutional demand therefore a low volume decline suggests large institutions are not aggressively selling stocks. Moreover, a high volume move (up or down) suggests large institutions are more actively involved.

On Tuesday, overseas stock markets fell sharply but US stocks edged higher. Perhaps the most pronounced move came from Jakarta’s Stock market. Overnight, Jakarta’s composite plunged nearly -5% placing it in bear market territory, having lost over 20% from its high in May. Elsewhere, Thailand’s stock market fell over 3%. Meanwhile, Japan’s Nikkei closed at a two month low which bodes poorly for US stocks.
Stocks fell again on Wednesday sending the DJIA to its first 6-day losing streak of 2013. The FOMC released the minutes of their last meeting which did not provide a clear signal regarding the Fed’s tapering schedule. We find this a bit odd since one of Bernanke’s stated goals is to create more transparency at the Fed. Economic data was mixed. Existing home sales soared 6.5% in July to an annualized rate of 5.39M which easily beat the Street’s estimate for a gain of 5.15M. Weekly mortgage applications slid for a second straight week as interest rates continue to curb demand.

THURSDAY & FRIDAY’S ACTION: Rates Fall; Stocks Edge Higher

Stocks opened higher on Thursday as investors digested a slew of stronger-than-expected economic data. The big news was that the Nasdaq shutdown for three hours due to a technical glitch. Nasdaq’s CEO should be fired now that this is the second major “error” – because he botched the Facebook IPO in Q2 2012. Manufacturing across the globe continues to improve. Overnight, China’s PMI topped estimates and rose above the boom/bust level of 50 for the first time in four months. Eurozone PMI also beat estimates, jumping to the highest level since June 2011. For the hat trick, US “flash” PMI rose to the highest level since March., also beating estimates. Separately, July leading indicators rose to 0.6%, just higher than the 0.5% forecast. Meanwhile, weekly jobless claims rose 336k, a bit higher than the 330k expectation. Stocks were quiet on Friday as a few Fed heads came out and continued sending mixed messages regarding when the Fed will taper.

MARKET OUTLOOK: BEARS ARE GETTING STRONGER

The market still has some issues but under the surface a few areas look healthy and the market looks like it wants to bounce into month-end. Defensive is paramount until the major averages definitively regain their 50 dma lines. Our goal is to remain in sync with the broader trend of the market (up or down) and not get caught up with the minutiae of changing labels on the market status very often. As always, keep your losses small and never argue with the tape.
 

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Sun Tzu's Advice For Wall Street; Trading Is Like War

WarThe Trade War
The stock market is a forum for debate between buyers and sellers on the values of companies. That is the nice explanation. To frame it in a another light – the stock market is a war between buyers and sellers, who each want to take the others money. The stock market is rough, and if you don’t approach it with the disposition of an irritated general, you will lose. In the stock market, nice guys finish last.
Sun Tzu’s, The Art of War serves to highlight many aspects of trading, since trading the market is much like warfare. Here are some quotes from the book, and their application in trading:
“All warfare is based on deception.”
Suppose you are a large hedge fund, and you want to accumulate a stock. You know that taking a sizeable position will move the stock higher, and you will end up paying higher prices as day traders jump in to the frenzy. With shares on the books already, you can afford to sell a little bit and paint the chart with a negative technical set up that should entice some selling pressure from nervous retail investors and overzealous short sellers. That selling pressure will help you fill your larger buy order.
You may also bring your buying in phases. Let the stock fall back and trigger stops, shake out nervous investors and free up stock to build the position. You may post fake orders in the Level 2 screen to make traders believe that there are large sellers and add further worry among the uncommitted buyers. These are just a few of the tactics they use.
 

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Deception vs True Intention:

As a trader, you have to be able to differentiate between deception and the true intention of large investors.
Further words from Sun Tzu:
“Therefore, in your deliberations, when seeking to determine the military conditions, let them be made the basis of a comparison, in this wise:
(1) Which of the two sovereigns is imbued with the Moral law?
(2) Which of the two generals has most ability?
(3) With whom lie the advantages derived from Heaven and Earth?
(4) On which side is discipline most rigorously enforced?
(5) Which army is stronger?
(6) On which side are officers and men more highly trained?
(7) In which army is there the greater constancy both in reward and punishment?”

Let me translate this in to stock market terms:
Among buyers and sellers, the side who will gather the greatest profits will be determined by:
(1) Which side believes that the stock market is always right (up or down)?
(2) Which side is led by the largest investors (bulls or bears)?
(3) Who is trading with the trend?
(4) On which side is discipline most rigorously enforced?
(5) Which side has more money?
(6) Which side has the best understanding of fear and greed, and how the crowd behaves when pressured by either?
(7) Which side lets profits run, and limits losses?
“According as circumstances are favorable, one should modify one’s plans.
We should only add to winning positions and never average down on a loser. Profits are carried by momentum, and if you are on the right side of momentum, you can make a lot of money. When losing, stick to the plan and exercise stop losses. When winning, increase position size as new entry signals are confirmed.
“When you engage in actual fighting, if victory is long in coming, then men’s weapons will grow dull and their ardor will be damped. If you lay siege to a town, you will exhaust your strength.”
If the expectation of your trade is not working out in a timely fashion, then you have read the market wrong and it is best to exit the position.
“It is only one who is thoroughly acquainted with the evils of war that can thoroughly understand the profitable way of carrying it on.”
If you think the stock market is fair, quit trading immediately.
“Hence the saying: If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb to every battle.”
If you know the market and know yourself, you will consistently profit. If you know the market but not yourself, your success will be random. If you do not know the market or yourself, you will consistently lose money. Success in the stock market is not just about the market, it is also about knowing how you react to fear and greed.
“The onset of troops is like the rush of a torrent which will even roll stones along in its course.”
The trend is your friend.
“The good fighters of old first put themselves beyond the possibility of defeat, and then waited for an opportunity of defeating the enemy.”
Good traders know that they can consistently make money, and that confidence fuels them to consistently make good decisions.
“To lift an autumn hair is no sign of great strength; to see the sun and moon is no sign of sharp sight; to hear the noise of thunder is no sign of a quick ear.”
Great traders see more than the obvious.
“There are not more than five primary colors (blue, yellow, red, white, and black), yet in combination they produce more hues than can ever been seen.”
Keep stock trading simple. You need only understand support, resistance, optimism, pessimism, price volatility and abnormal behavior.
Source: Stockscores Summer 2013
 

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Elon Musk How To Kill A Giant

  • Aim to solve a big problem, not a small one
  • Find industries that are stagnate or in decline
  • Look for places where everyone thinks that it is “impossible” to succeed
  • Once you pass the initial startup phase- older industry can not catch up
  • Start a company that tries to change the way the industry behaves

Full video here: http://www.businessweek.com/videos/2013-08-11/two-minutes-with-elon-musk-how-to-kill-a-giant  

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