Davos 2010: Morgan Stanley's John Mack
Morgan Stanley’s John Mack:
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The U.S. Dollar vs. Capital Markets
Th Inverse Correlation Explained:
In the recent past, there has been an inverse correlation between the U.S. dollar and dollar denominated assets (mainly stocks and commodities). By definition, the inverse correlation states that stocks and commodities (which are priced in dollars) will fall when the dollar rallies. Since early December, the greenback has steadily rallied which has put pressure on several capital markets. As the following few charts show, on a relative basis, crude oil is the hardest hit, followed by gold, then U.S. equities. What does this mean? We’ll let you draw your own conclusions by commenting below.May 2010 Stock Market Commentary
Sovereign debt woes continue to be the bane of this rally. At the end of April the S&P Rating Agency downgraded Greece’s debt to “junk” status, which accelerated the steep sell-off in the euro and sent it down to its 2008 lows! This sparked a world-wide panic sell-off which sent stocks plunging. In addition, Spain and Portugal’s debt was also downgraded which put pressure on a host of capital markets. Italy and Iceland are the two nations which analysts believe are also dealing with ominous debt levels. All of this helped the US dollar enjoy one of its strongest gains against the euro in over a year. Since November, the greenback has rallied smartly and jumped above its 50-day moving average (DMA) and 200 DMA lines. As expected, the stronger dollar sent US stocks and a slew of commodities (i.e. dollar denominated assets) lower as investors continue to debate our economic future.
Can Asia Save The World's Economy?
Right now the world is in nascent stages of a massive economic recovery. There is no question that Asia is playing a pivotal role in that process. Asian economies are currently growing at a very rapid pace. Countries like China, India, Russia, Japan, South Korea and Singapore are experiencing robust economic growth which will eventually translate into more important global power. However, that is years, if not decades, away and it is nothing for the West to fear.
Thursday's Watchlist 1.14.10
A new watch list for Thursday, January 14, 2010
Starbucks Shares Smacked As Coffee Prices Surge
Coffee Is The Strongest Market of 2014: As of yesterday’s close, Coffee is the strongest market of 2014 – up a whopping 77%! Meanwhile, shares of SBUX are down 13% this year. In addition, SBUX is forming a large topping pattern while coffee prices are forming a large bottoming pattern. SBUX Is Inversely Related To…
Mid-Morning Profit Taking
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