Stocks Drift Lower On Last Day Of Q3

Thursday, September 30, 2010
Stock Market Commentary:

Stocks fell on Thursday as investors digested the latest round of economic data and more negative news from Europe was announced. Volume totals were reported higher on the NYSE and on the Nasdaq exchange compared to Wednesday’s session which marked the latest distribution day and signaled that large institutions were aggressively selling stocks. Advancers were about even with decliners on the NYSE and on the Nasdaq exchange, while new 52-week highs easily outnumbered new 52-week lows on both exchanges. There were 77 high-ranked companies from the CANSLIM.net Leaders List made a new 52-week high and appeared on the CANSLIM.net BreakOuts Page, slightly higher from the 75 issues that appeared on the prior session.

Economic Data Is Decent But Spain’s Downgrade Hurts Stocks:

Before Thursday’s opening bell, the government released two stronger than expected economic reports which helped lift futures. The Commerce Department said the final read on Q2 GDP was +1.7%, higher than the prior estimate of 1.6%. Elsewhere, the Labor Department said initial jobless claims fell -16,000 to 453,000 last week. At 10:00AM EST, the Chicago PMI topped estimates which helped send stocks higher. In Europe, Spain’s credit rating was cut one level from AAA to Aa1. Had this event occurred three months ago, the euro and major equity markets around the world would have been fallen sharply. Therefore, the somewhat muted decline suggests a strong environment.

Market Action- Confirmed Rally:

The action since this rally was confirmed on the September 1, 2010 follow-through day (FTD) has been very strong. Looking forward, the window is open for disciplined investors to carefully buy high-ranked stocks, while many pundits are expecting that markets may consolidate following recent gains. It was encouraging to see the bulls show up and defend support (formerly resistance) last week. The next level of support for the major averages is their respective 200-day moving average (DMA) lines while the next level of resistance is their respective April highs. Trade accordingly.

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    The major averages confirmed their latest rally attempt on Tuesday, June 15, 2010 when they produced a sound follow-through day. Looking forward, the window is now open for disciplined investors to begin carefully buying high-ranked stocks again. Technically, it was encouraging to also see the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the benchmark S&P 500 Index rally above their respective 200-day moving average (DMA) lines. Looking forward, the 200 DMA line should now act as support as this market continues advancing, while any reversal would be a worrisome sign.
    Remember to remain very selective because all of the major averages are still trading below their downward sloping 50 DMA lines. It was somewhat disconcerting to see volume remain light (below average) behind the confirming gains. It is important to note that approximately 75% of FTDs lead to new sustained rallies, while 25% fail. In addition, every major rally in market history has begun with a FTD, but not every FTD leads to a new rally. Trade accordingly.

  • Stocks Fall As Investors Digest Economic & Earnings Data

    Market Outlook- Confirmed Rally:
    The major U.S. averages are back in a new confirmed rally and are flirting with resistance of their current 2.5 month base. The benchmark S&P 500 index scored a proper FTD on Tuesday, October 18, 2011 when it rallied over 2% on heavier volume than the prior session. The next important area of resistance is September’s highs and then the 200 DMA line. In addition, it is important to note that the bulls scored a victory since many of the major averages closed above their downward sloping 50 DMA lines for the first time since late July! Our longstanding clients/readers know, we like to filter out the noise and focus on what matters most: market action. If you are looking for specific help navigating this market, please contact us for more information.
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    On Tap This Week:
    WEDNESDAY: Weekly mortgage apps, CPI, housing starts, Fed’s Rosengren speaks, oil inventories, Fed’s Beige Book; Earnings from Morgan Stanley, Travelers, United Tech, AmEx, Ebay, Western Digital
    THURSDAY: Jobless claims, existing home sales, Philadelphia Fed survey, leading indicators, Fed’s Bullard and Kocherlakota speak, NewsCorp investor day; Earnings from AT&T, Eli Lilly, Nokia, AutoNation, Microsoft, Capital One, Chipotle and SanDisk
    FRIDAY: Fed’s Kocherlakota speaks, 2011 Dodd-Frank Rulemaking Deadline; Earnings from GE, McDonald’s, Verizon, Honeywell and Schlumberger
    Source: CNBC.com

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