Stocks and a slew of other “riskon” assets bounced from deeply oversold levels as hope spread that another round of global monetary easing will curb the economic slowdown across the globe. In early May, all the major averages sliced below their respective 50 DMA lines which prompted us to label this market “in a correction.” Then in early June the bulls showed up and defend the 200 DMA lines for the major averages. On Friday, the bulls managed send the benchmark S&P 500 index above the neckline of its bullish inverse head and shoulders pattern (shown above). The next level of resistance is the 50 DMA line and then 2012’s highs.
Monday-Wednesday’s Action- Bad News is “Good” News:
Stocks opened higher but closed lower on Monday as enthusiasm waned regarding Spain’s $125 billion bailout. The best headline I came across was one saying, “Spain Got Tarped.” The details of the plan were not ideal and showed EU leaders just throwing more debt at a debt crisis. After the initial and expected at the open on Monday, stocks fell hard and closed near their lows of the day as investors focused on the upcoming elections in Greece and Italy’s onerous debt burden.
Stocks ended with modest gains on Tuesday but volume, a critical component of institutional activity, was lighter than Monday, as investors looked passed Spain’s woes and focused on hopes that the recent spate of “bad” news will force the Fed’s hand into another round of QE when they meet next week. Cyprus, the third smallest country in the eurozone, sports a tiny population of under 1 million, and its economy only accounts for +0.2% of eurozone GDP asked for a bailout. Yields on Spanish and Italian debt jumped on the news.
The major averages ended lower on Wednesday as sellers showed up and sent stocks lower before the close. The economic data in the U.S. was less than stellar. Retail sales fell -0.2% in May which exceeded the Street’s estimate for a decline of -0.1%. Elsewhere, producer prices missed estimates, falling -1% in May while core prices met estimates, rising +0.2%.
Thursday & Friday’s Action- Fed, ECB, Someone Save Us:
Stocks enjoyed nice gains on Thursday after global Central Banks stepped up and said they are willing to act if the Greek elections spook markets. The Labor Department said weekly jobless claims to rose to 386,000 from 380,000 which topped the Street’s estimate for 375,000. Overall consumer prices slid by -0.3%in May which topped the Street’s estimate for a decline of –0.2%. Core prices rose by +0.2% which topped the Street’s estimate for a gain of +0.1%. The government said, for the first quarter the current deficit data totaled $137.3billion, which is greater than the $130.9 billion deficit that had been anticipated. Again, stocks rallied on hopes that “bad” data will force the Fed’s (and other central bank’s) hand. Stocks rallied on Friday after the latest round of economic data was released. The data suggested that the US economy is “slowing” which investors are hoping will force the Fed’s hand at their next meeting later this month.
Market Outlook- In A Correction
From our point of view, the market is back in a correction now that all the major averages are back below their respective 50 DMA lines. Looking forward, we want to see a powerful accumulation day to confirm the latest rally attempt. Technically, the 200 DMA line and June’s lows are the next level of support while the 50 DMA line is the next level of resistance for the major averages. As always, keep your losses small and never argue with the tape.If you are looking for specific help navigating this market, feel free to contact us for more information. That’s what we are here for!
Earnings And Economic Data Continues To Slow We are operating with the notion that stocks topped out in 2015 and are now in the early phases of a new bear market (and global recession). In the short term, the action remains very poor on Wall Street. It was another ugly week as the major indices…
Friday, January 25, 2013 Stock Market Commentary: First, let me begin by restating my thesis since November 16, 2012 – Stocks are strong. The next point that needs to be addressed is that stocks are very extended in the short term and a light volume pullback would do wonders to restore the health of this…
Friday, April 19, 2013 Stock Market Commentary The market rally is under pressure as we are beginning to see elevated levels of distribution across the board. We are also entering the “Sell in May” time-frame which has worked almost perfectly over the past three years. Since 2010, the DJIA has fallen 800 points in the latter of…
The fact that there has only been two distribution days since the follow-though-day (FTD) bodes well for this nascent rally. It is also a welcome sign to see the market continue to improve as investors digest the latest round of stronger than expected economic and earnings data. Remember that now that a new rally has been confirmed, the window is open to proactively be buying high quality breakouts meeting the investment system guidelines. Trade accordingly.
Friday, March 01, 2013 Stock Market Commentary: Stocks ended February higher and enjoyed their 8th positive month in the past 9. For the week, stocks ended mixed to higher as the bulls fight to stay in control of this market. On Wednesday, February 20, 2013 we published a note saying, “Time For A Pullback” after…
Market Action- Market In A Correction; Week 28 Ends
All the major averages sliced below their respective 50 DMA line on Thursday, March 10, 2011. All except for the tech-heavy Nasdaq composite managed to repair that damage and close above that important level on Friday. Friday, March 11, 2011 marked Day 1 of a new rally attempt which means the earliest a possible FTD could emerge would be Thursday, providing Friday’s lows are not breached. If, however, Friday’s lows are breached, the Day count will be reset and odds will favor lower prices will follow. The market is in a correction which underscores the importance of raising cash and playing strong defense until a new FTD emerges. If you are looking for specific help navigating this market, please contact us for more information.
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