Another Quiet Day On Wall Street

Byinfo@50park.com
SPX- Normal Consolidation After Strong Rally
SPX- Normal Consolidation After Strong Rally

Wednesday, March 28, 2012
Stock Market Commentary:

Stocks and other risk assets fell on Wednesday after the latest round of economic data was released. From our point of view, the major averages confirmed their latest rally attempt on Tuesday 1.3.12 which was Day 9 of their current rally attempt. Since then, stocks have been enjoying a very strong uptrend. The benchmark S&P 500 paused near its 2011 high (~1370) before moving higher and that level should now become support. The next level of support would be the 50 DMA line, then a deeper 5-9% pullback. It is important to note that the bulls remain in control of this market as long as the benchmark S&P 500 stays above its 50 DMA line.

Economic Fears Resurface:

Stocks fell on Wednesday as investors digested the latest round of mixed economic data. The Mortgage Bankers Association said weekly mortgage applications rose last week which bodes well for the ongoing housing recovery. The report showed that refinancing demand slid for a 6th consecutive week as interest rates edged higher. Meanwhile, the Commerce Department said durable goods missed estimates and rose at +2.2% in February. Future business investment also missed forecasts. Separately, investors were concerned after Ben Bernanke told ABC News Tuesday evening that the economy is still not out of the woods yet which raised the odds for QE3. Bernanke’s main concern is that this recovery is a shallow version of the Great Depression. After the 1929 meltdown (similar to 2008) the economy and stock market briefly rebounded before relapsing (largely due to poor decisions from the Government regarding both fiscal and monetary policy) in the mid 1930’s. The only thing that saved the economy in the late 1930’s was World War II. Bernanke doesn’t want to make the same mistake.

Market Outlook- Confirmed Rally

After a brief pullback most risk assets (mainly stocks and a slew of commodities) are back in “rally-mode” evidenced by the strong rally we have seen in recent days. This shallow pullback is considered healthy and shows how strong the bulls are at this point. However, if sellers show up and support is breached then the bears will have regained control of this market. As always, keep your losses small and never argue with the tape. If you are looking for specific help navigating this market, feel free to contact us for more information. That’s what we are here for!
Coming Up This Week:
WEDNESDAY: Weekly mortgage apps, durable goods orders, oil inventories, 5-yr note auction, Fed’s Bullard speaks, FDA discusses obesity drugs
THURSDAY: GDP, jobless claims, corporate profits, Fed’s Plosser speaks, 7-yr note auction, farm prices, Fed’s Lacker speaks; Earnings from Best Buy, Research In Motion
FRIDAY: Personal income & outlays, Chicago PMI, consumer sentiment, Stringer’s last day as Sony CEO
Source: CNBC.com
 

Similar Posts

  • Day Count Reset; Market In A Correction 2.4.10

    Byinfo@50park.com

    Looking at the market, Thursday’s ominous action took out Monday’s lows and effectively ended the brief rally attempt which suggests a steeper correction may unfold and resets the day count for a proper follow-through day to emerge. It is also important to see how the major averages react to their respective 50-day moving average (DMA) lines which were support and are now resistance. Until they all close above that important level the technical damage remaining on the charts is a concern. So far, the market’s reaction has been tepid at best to the latest round of economic and earnings data. Remember that the recent series of distribution days coupled with the deleterious action in the major averages suggests large institutions are aggressively selling stocks. Disciplined investors will now wait for a new follow-through day to be produced before resuming any buying efforts. Until then, patience is paramount.

  • Another Volatile Week On Wall Street

    Byinfo@50park.com

    The benchmark S&P 500 Index marked Day 13 of its current rally attempt while narrowly avoiding undercutting its 5/25/10 low thus far but failed to score a proper FTD due to the light volume that accompanied Thursday’s strong move. The Dow Jones Industrial Average marked Day 4 of its latest rally attempt while the Nasdaq composite marked day 2. It is well known that a market should not be considered “healthy” unless it trades above its rising 200-day moving average (DMA) line. The fact that all the major averages are below both their 50 & 200 DMA lines bodes poorly for the near term. That said, the bears will likely remain in control until the popular averages close above their important moving averages. Remember, we have seen these very strong light volume rallies in the past only to fail a few days later. Trade accordingly.

  • 4th Consecutive Weekly Decline!

    Byinfo@50park.com

    Market Outlook- Market In A Correction
    The latest action in the major averages suggests the market is back in a correction as all the major averages remain below key technical levels. Our longstanding clients/readers know, we like to filter out the noise and focus on what matters most: market action. That said, the recent action suggests caution is paramount at this stage until all the major averages rally back towards their respective 200 DMA lines. If you are looking for specific help navigating this market, please contact us for more information.