Friday, September 30, 2011 Stock Market Commentary: The third quarter of 2011 was the worst quarter for risk assets since 2008! Several key risk assets (multiple stock markets around the world, Copper, Crude Oil, etc.) officially entered bear market territory (marked by a decline of >20% from a recent high) in Q3 2011 which bodes…
Market Outlook- Rally Under Pressure:
The major averages confirmed their latest rally attempt on Tuesday, August 23, 2011 which was the 11th day of their latest rally attempt. It is important to note that all major rallies in history began with a FTD however not every FTD leads to a new rally (i.e. several FTDs fail). In addition, it is important to note that the major averages still are under pressure as they are all trading below their longer and shorter term moving averages (50 and 200 DMA lines) and are all still negative year-to-date. Our longstanding clients/readers know, we like to filter out the noise and focus on what matters most: market action. This rally will fail if/when several distribution days emerge or August’s lows are breached. Until then, the bulls deserve the benefit of the doubt. If you are looking for specific help navigating this market, please contact us for more information.
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Market Outlook- Rally Under Pressure:
The major averages confirmed their latest rally attempt on Tuesday, August 23, 2011 which was the 11th day of their latest rally attempt. It is important to note that all major rallies in history began with a FTD however not every FTD leads to a new rally (i.e. several FTDs fail). In addition, it is important to note that the major averages still are under pressure as they are all trading below their longer and shorter term moving averages (50 and 200 DMA lines) and are all still negative year-to-date. Our longstanding clients/readers know, we like to filter out the noise and focus on what matters most: market action. This rally will fail if/when several distribution days emerge or August’s lows are breached. Until then, the bulls deserve the benefit of the doubt. If you are looking for specific help navigating this market, please contact us for more information.
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“As long as that pull back is orderly, one would have to give bulls the benefit of the doubt in the long-term timeframe,” says Adam Sarhan, CEO of New York-based Sarhan Capital. “However, the bears remain in control of this movement.”
At its low of $1,534.49 early Monday, gold was down 20 percent from the record high at $1,920.30 set on September 6. While 20 percent is the conventional bear-market threshold for stock market technicians, it is less meaningful for gold because the market is so volatile and sometimes illiquid.
“As long as we are not settling below $1,500, I’m very, very comfortable in my bullish bias,” said Christopher Henwood, a commodities market analyst for Reuters Insider.
CORRECTIVE MEASURES
By Monday evening, gold had pared its losses to close 16 percent below its record. Such a loss is in keeping with corrections seen since the start of gold’s decade-long bull market, according to Sarhan, who said the average monthly pullback for gold since the uptrend started is 15.6 percent.
Gold closed at $1,620.09 per ounce on Monday, down from $1,655.29 on Friday. That is still a quintupling of prices since gold broke above $300 per ounce in 2002.
“This is simply in line with the normal average decline we’ve seen since 2002 in gold’s very strong bull market,” Sarhan said.
Indeed, since gold recovered from a 33 percent July-October 2008 retreat during the financial crisis, gold’s largest declines were 14 percent over 42 days in February-April 2009 and from December 4, 2009 to February 5 2010 with 15.2 percent shed.
“Normally in bull markets as established in gold, you see several pullbacks which shake out the weaker hands and also give the market and bulls a chance to digest the recent move,” said Sarhan.
Market Outlook- Rally Under Pressure:
The major averages confirmed their latest rally attempt on Tuesday, August 23, 2011 which was the 11th day of their latest rally attempt. It is important to note that all major rallies in history began with a FTD however not every FTD leads to a new rally (i.e. several FTDs fail). In addition, it is important to note that the major averages still are under pressure as they are all trading below their longer and shorter term moving averages (50 and 200 DMA lines) and are all still negative year-to-date. Our longstanding clients/readers know, we like to filter out the noise and focus on what matters most: market action. This rally will fail if/when several distribution days emerge or August’s lows are breached. Until then, the bulls deserve the benefit of the doubt. If you are looking for specific help navigating this market, please contact us for more information.
Monday, September 26, 2011 Stock Market Commentary: Stocks rallied across the globe after the worst weekly decline for the Dow Jones Industrial Average since 2008 on optimism that EU leaders will help prevent a Greek default. Nearly every day since mid-August, we told you that the major averages were simply rallying (on light volume) towards…
Market Outlook- Rally Under Pressure:
The major averages confirmed their latest rally attempt on Tuesday, August 23, 2011 which was the 11th day of their latest rally attempt. It is important to note that all major rallies in history began with a FTD however not every FTD leads to a new rally (i.e. several FTDs fail). In addition, it is important to note that the major averages still are under pressure as they are all trading below their longer and shorter term moving averages (50 and 200 DMA lines) and are all still negative year-to-date. Our longstanding clients/readers know, we like to filter out the noise and focus on what matters most: market action. This rally will fail if/when several distribution days emerge or August’s lows are breached. Until then, the bulls deserve the benefit of the doubt. If you are looking for specific help navigating this market, please contact us for more information.
Thursday, September 22, 2011 Stock Market Commentary: Nearly every major capital market (equities, euro, crude oil, gold, copper, etc…etc..) was smacked on Thursday in the wake of the Fed’s meeting. Nearly every day since mid-August, we told you that the major averages were simply rallying (on light volume) towards resistance (50 DMA line) and unless…
Market Outlook- Rally Under Pressure:
The major averages confirmed their latest rally attempt on Tuesday, August 23, 2011 which was the 11th day of their latest rally attempt. It is important to note that all major rallies in history began with a FTD however not every FTD leads to a new rally (i.e. several FTDs fail). In addition, it is important to note that the major averages still are under pressure as they are all trading below their longer and shorter term moving averages (50 and 200 DMA lines) and are all still negative year-to-date. Our longstanding clients/readers know, we like to filter out the noise and focus on what matters most: market action. This rally will fail if/when several distribution days emerge or August’s lows are breached. Until then, the bulls deserve the benefit of the doubt. If you are looking for specific help navigating this market, please contact us for more information.
Gold jumped to its biggest gain in eight sessions on Tuesday, snapping back from steep day-ago losses as the anticipation of further US stimulus mingled with new fears over global growth. In a jittery session marked again by gold trading less like a safe haven and more like a risky commodity, bullion rallied in the…