Busy News Day; Quiet Reaction

Thursday, January 13, 2011
Stock Market Commentary:

The major averages were quiet on a rather busy news day. Heretofore, market internals remain healthy evidenced by broad leadership, favorable volume patterns, a rising advance/decline line, and a healthy number of new highs on both major exchanges.

Bank of England & ECB Hold Rates Steady, Spain’s Debt Sells, U.S. Economic Data:

On Thursday, the Bank of England (BOE) & the European Central Bank  (ECB) held rates steady at record lows and reaffirmed their stimulus measures as the global economy continues to recover. The BOE said it is concerned that inflation is above the government’s +3% limit as it sits at a six-month high. Spain’s debt auction went well which helped allay concerns that the 10th largest economy will need to be bailed out in the near future. In The U.S, the producer price index (PPI)  rose +1.1% from November and topped the +0.8% estimate. Core prices, which exclude food and energy, rose +0.2% which matched estimates. Jobless claims rose to their highest level since October. Elsewhere, the U.S. trade deficit unexpectedly contracted in November to the lowest level in 10 months. The decline was due to faster growth in overseas markets coupled with a weak dollar which boosted demand for U.S. goods and services. The consumer price index, advance retail sales, consumer confidence, and industrial production are all slated to be released on Friday.

Market Action- Market In Confirmed Rally Week 20

It was encouraging to see the bulls show up in November and defend the major averages’ respective 50 DMA lines. The market remains in a confirmed rally until those levels are breached. The tech-heavy Nasdaq composite and small-cap Russell 2000 indexes continue to lead evidenced by their shallow correction and strong recovery. However, it is important to note that stocks are a bit extended here and a pullback of some sort (back to the 50 DMA lines) would do wonders to restore the health of this bull market. Put simply, stocks are strong. Trade accordingly. If you are looking for specific high ranked ideas, please contact us for more information.

Are You Looking For Someone To Manage Your Money?
Our Private Wealth Management Services Can Help You!

Similar Posts

  • Stocks Slide on On Libya Woes

    Market Action- Confirmed Rally; Week 26 Ends
    It was encouraging to see the bulls show up and defend the major averages’ respective 50 DMA lines in November as this market proves resilient and simply refuses to go down. From our point of view, the market remains in a confirmed rally until those levels are breached. The tech-heavy Nasdaq composite and small-cap Russell 2000 indexes continue to lead evidenced by their shallow correction and strong recovery. However, it is important to note that stocks are a bit extended here and a pullback of some sort (back to the 50 DMA lines) would do wonders to restore the health of this bull market. If you are looking for specific high ranked ideas, please contact us for more information.
    Are You Looking For Someone To Manage Your Money?
    Our Private Wealth Management Services Can Help You!

  • Stocks Plunge As Contagion Fears Spread

    The market is currently in a correction which, according to historical precedent, suggests 3 out of 4 stocks will follow the market lower until a new follow-through day emerges. That said, taking the appropriate action on a case-by-case basis with your stocks prompts investors to raise cash when any holdings start getting in trouble. It is also important to note that the major averages have experienced multiple “corrections” since the March 2009 lows and each one has been mild at best (less than a -10% decline from the recent high). Therefore, it will be very interesting to see how low this correction goes before the bulls show up and defend support (if that happens).
    Additionally, it is important to note that the market can go much lower (or higher) than anyone thinks; so it is of the utmost importance to filter out the “noise” and carefully analyze price and volume for the best read on the health of the market.

  • Day 1 Of A New Rally Attempt!

    Market Outlook- Market In A Correction:
    From our point of view, the market is back in a correction now that all the major averages closed below their respective 50 DMA lines and important upward trendlines. Since the beginning of May, we have urged our clients and readers to be extremely cautious as the major averages and a host of commodities began selling off.
    For those of you that are interested, the S&P 500 hit a new 2011 high on May 2, 2011. Two days later, on Wednesday, May 4, 2011, we turned cautious and said “The Rally Was Under Pressure” (read here). Then on Monday, 5.23.11, we changed our outlook to “Market In A Correction” (read here). On Monday June 6, 2011 we pointed out that the S&P 500 violated its 9-month upward trendline (read here) and reiterated our cautious stance. We have received a lot of “thank you” emails for being “spot on” in our cautious approach. We are humbled by your presence and very thankful for your continued support. Looking forward, the next level of resistance for the major averages is their respective 50 DMA lines then their 2011 highs. The next level of support is their longer term 200 DMA lines. If you are looking for specific help navigating this market, please contact us for more information.

  • Dow Closes Below 50 DMA Line on Tepid Earnings & Economic Data

    The major averages and leading stocks are pulling back to digest their recent gains as investors make their way through the latest round of economic and earnings data. So far, the market’s reaction has been tepid at best which puts serious pressure on the current rally. Until a clear picture can be formed as to how companies fared last quarter, one could easily expect to see more of this sideways to lower action to continue. The market is in the middle of its46th week since the March lows and the rally remains intact, albeit under serious pressure from our point of view. The Dow Jones Industrial Average sliced and closed below its 50 DMA line on heavy volume for the first time since October which is an ominous sign. The Nasdaq and the S&P 500 closed above their respective 50 DMA lines which, in the near term, is a healthy sign. Now that the market is clearly under pressure one would be wise to adjust their exposure accordingly.

  • Stocks Rally As USD Falls

    Market Action- Market In Confirmed Rally Week 16
    It is encouraging to see the bulls show up and defend the 50 DMA lines for the major averages. The market remains in a confirmed rally until those levels are breached. The tech-heavy Nasdaq composite and small-cap Russell 2000 indexes continue to lead evidenced by their shallow correction and strong recovery. Put simply, stocks are strong. Trade accordingly. If you are looking for specific high ranked ideas, please contact us for more information.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *