27 Sep
Media Quotes

Adam Sarhan Reuters Quote: Technically speaking, gold bull run not broken…yet

By Alden Bentley

NEW YORK | Mon Sep 26, 2011 5:20pm EDT

(Reuters) – It’s hard to be upbeat about gold these days, but technical analysts are keeping their faith in the long-term bull run — just barely.
As the precious metal fell by a record over $120 an ounce on Friday and Monday, peak to trough, gold selling snowballed as several important technical support levels were breached. What began in early September as a correction after several months of accelerating gains has threatened to become a rout.
But the most critical price points needed to maintain the post-2008 rally at around $1,500 an ounce have held firm for now, according to analysts who study candlestick charts and historical trends to predict prices.
Monday’s low at $1,534.49 was just above the 200-day moving average at $1,527, the first of three relatively clustered support levels that are either going to provide good reentry levels, or, if they all crumble, perhaps signal that this was more than a short-term correction.
The trendline connecting major lows at $680.80 on Oct 24, 2008, and $1,156.90 on July 28, 2010 lies around $1,472.60 and rises about $2 per day. Right below that at $1,451.43 is the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement of the 2008-2011 rally, which is an important technical objective for followers of Elliott Wave Theory and others.
“As long as that pull back is orderly, one would have to give bulls the benefit of the doubt in the long-term timeframe,” says Adam Sarhan, CEO of New York-based Sarhan Capital. “However, the bears remain in control of this movement.”
At its low of $1,534.49 early Monday, gold was down 20 percent from the record high at $1,920.30 set on September 6. While 20 percent is the conventional bear-market threshold for stock market technicians, it is less meaningful for gold because the market is so volatile and sometimes illiquid.
“As long as we are not settling below $1,500, I’m very, very comfortable in my bullish bias,” said Christopher Henwood, a commodities market analyst for Reuters Insider.
CORRECTIVE MEASURES
By Monday evening, gold had pared its losses to close 16 percent below its record. Such a loss is in keeping with corrections seen since the start of gold’s decade-long bull market, according to Sarhan, who said the average monthly pullback for gold since the uptrend started is 15.6 percent.
Gold closed at $1,620.09 per ounce on Monday, down from $1,655.29 on Friday. That is still a quintupling of prices since gold broke above $300 per ounce in 2002.
“This is simply in line with the normal average decline we’ve seen since 2002 in gold’s very strong bull market,” Sarhan said.
Indeed, since gold recovered from a 33 percent July-October 2008 retreat during the financial crisis, gold’s largest declines were 14 percent over 42 days in February-April 2009 and from December 4, 2009 to February 5 2010 with 15.2 percent shed.
“Normally in bull markets as established in gold, you see several pullbacks which shake out the weaker hands and also give the market and bulls a chance to digest the recent move,” said Sarhan.
Since the long capitulation started on Thursday, gold fell 8.2 percent, the deepest three-day slide since late October 2008. It gained momentum upon breaking below price levels identified as being important — usually previous highs and lows or trendlines drawn to extend through them.
This forced investors with long positions tied to gold going up to liquidate en masse to cut losses or lock in profits before they evaporated.
“Even if they are selling it here, chances are they’ve got some good money in this position, if they held it for a long time,” Henwood said.
On Monday spot gold moved below the 100-day moving average — widely watched as an important trend indicator by traders — which was the catalyst for much of the leg down on Monday.
But that move started in Asia trade, when markets were still relatively thin, and subject to bigger swings, without London and New York traders fully involved.
(Editing by David Gregorio)

21 Sep
Media Quotes

Latest MSN.com Quote- Gold enjoys biggest jump in eight days

Gold jumped to its biggest gain in eight sessions on Tuesday, snapping back from steep day-ago losses as the anticipation of further US stimulus mingled with new fears over global growth.
In a jittery session marked again by gold trading less like a safe haven and more like a risky commodity, bullion rallied in the US mid-morning following downbeat forecasts from the International Monetary Fund, and held gains later in theday even as stocks pared increases and the US dollar rose.
It drew some strength from a poll at the world’s biggest bullion conference showing gold is forecast to rise to $US2,019 an ounce by November 2012. Expectations of softening policy from the US Federal Reserve on Wednesday also lent support.
The day’s wide trading range and thin volume – 40 per cent below the one-month average for US futures – highlighted the volatility that has plagued gold for the past month, tainting its image as a haven of stability and safety.
By 2.30pm EDT (0430 Wednesday AEST), gold’s spot price, which tracks trades in bullion, was above $US1,802 an ounce, after rallying to more than $US1,810. Its last registered trade on Monday was $US1,777.64.
US gold futures’ most-active contract, December, settled up $US30.2, or 1.7 per cent, at $US1,809.10, after trading between a high of $US1,814.30 and a low of $US1,772.
Prices fell about two per cent in the previous session as investors deserted gold for other perceived safe havens such as bonds and cash amid fears about a Greek debt default. US Treasuries and the dollar held relatively steady on Tuesday.
The session kicked off with an upward bias after Standard & Poor’s cut Italy’s credit rating in a surprise move that increased strains on the debt-stressed euro zone. For details, see “Today, we have the Italian downgrade and uncertainties from the Fed meeting, which are both major events, to bring the safe-haven play back into gold,” said George Gero, senior vice president at RBC Wealth Management in New York.
“On top of that, there’s intervention in the Swiss currency and less production of gold out of China, all of which are providing the perfect storm for a rebound.”
An International Monetary Fund report accelerated gains. It said Europe’s leaders were failing to act decisively enough to resolve the crisis and shaved the IMF’s global growth forecasts to four per cent for this year and next.
Dealers will now anxiously await the outcome of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting on Wednesday, which was expected to try to make low long-term interest rates even cheaper by tilting toward longer-duration bonds.
“We really have been in a downtrend for the best part of the last couple of weeks and that needs to be broken … and for that, we need to move back above $US1,825,” said Ole Hansen, senior manager at Saxo Bank.
But some are sceptical that gold will stay in an upward trajectory, pointing to its inconsistency of late amid risk-off trades in commodities and stocks.
Gold had doubled its value in a long ascent since the 2008 crisis. It has risen nearly 30 per cent this year, hitting record highs above $US1,920. Last month alone, bullion jumped 12 per cent, its most since November 2009.
All of this, some say, has led to market fatigue.
“Gold cannot stay down too long in a depressed financial environment like today’s, but considering how much it’s gained this year, you’d expect the market to slow somewhat,” said Adam Sarhan at Sarhan Capital in New York.
“Also, a lot of today’s gains seem to be riding on the Fed, but the Fed could just disappoint. They could kick the can down the road, allowing more time for the US economy to pick up on its own, or come up with initiatives that fall below market expectations. That could hurt gold again.”
URL: http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=8304778

16 Sep
Media Quotes

MSN.com Gold Quote: Gold falls 2% to 3-week low

Gold fell two per cent to three-week lows on Thursday, as increasing efforts to contain the European debt crisis fuelled another volatile session, further diminishing bullion’s appeal as a safe haven.

Equities rallied after major central banks said they would co-operate to offer three-month US dollar loans to commercial banks to prevent money markets from freezing up. A bearish double-top chart pattern in gold accelerated technical selling as prices slid below $US1,800 an ounce.
Gold has lost seven per cent since hitting a record $US1,920.30 last Tuesday.
“Any attempt to ease the fear or moving forward with the euro zone debt crisis is going to be viewed as positive by the markets, and nonetheless takes away the need for the safe haven assets such as bonds and gold,” said David Meger, director of metals trading at futures broker Vision Financial Markets.
Spot gold was down 1.8 per cent at $US1,788.09 an ounce by 3.57pm (0557 Friday AEST), having dipped as low as $US1,772.04. The precious metal is set for its second straight weekly loss, which would be its first two-week drop since early July.
US gold futures for December settled down $US45.10 at $US1,781.40 an ounce. Trading volume was about 10 per cent above this week’s average turnover, preliminary Reuters data showed.
Silver fell 2.2 per cent at $US39.77 an ounce.
Most analysts said gold’s long-term bull run remains intact, but some investors questioned the metal’s ability to rise above $US2,000 after its most volatile trade in two years, with bullion rising or falling more than two per cent 12 times in the past 30 days.
“It seems like sentiment has swung back and forth significantly on a daily basis in the past several weeks. At the moment, gold is the readily traded asset being watched very closely by speculators and investors alike, creating volatility to the market of late,” Meger said.
On charts, gold should find support at $US1,702, a recent low reached in late August, representing the “neckline” of a bearish double-top pattern after bullion failed to extend gains above $US1,900 an ounce twice in the past four weeks, said Adam Sarhan, CEO of New York-based Sarhan Capital.
“If we are not able to get above the all-time high, by definition the double top remains in place. In the short term, it’s definitely going to be technical pressure,” Sarhan said.
Equities and the euro rose after coordinated actions by central banks eased any funding crunch created by Europe’s sovereign debt crisis. European bank shares rallied.
Gold dropped as German government bond futures staged their largest one-day fall in six months on signs of more willingness from policymakers to solve Greece’s debt crisis, prompting some to sell positions in safe-haven bonds.
US data showed an above-forecast rise in weekly US jobless claims, August inflation cooling and a surprisingly large contraction in a reading of regional manufacturing.
UBS analyst Edel Tully said in a note that the US Federal Reserve policy meeting next week could boost the gold market.
HSBC and metals consultancy GFMS said on Thursday they see gold rising above $US2,000 an ounce, citing high government debt levels and instability in the currency markets.
GFMS, a unit of Thomson Reuters, said it expected gold to break through $US2,000 an ounce by year-end, as recovering investment added to already strong bar, jewellery and official sector buying.
Spot platinum was down 1.4 per cent at $US1,783.58 an ounce, and spot palladium was up 0.9 per cent at $US721.88 an ounce.

URL: http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=8302916

16 Sep
Media Quotes

Adam Sarhan Latest Reuters Quote- Gold's Double Top

By Frank Tang and Jan Harvey NEW YORK/LONDON | Thu Sep 15, 2011 1:03pm EDT
(Reuters) – Gold fell 2 percent to three-week lows on Thursday, as efforts by global central banks and top European powers to end the region’s debt crisis prompted investors to dump safe havens.
Bullion prices tumbled and riskier assets such as equities rallied after major central banks around the world said they would cooperate to offer three-month U.S. dollar loans to commercial banks to prevent money markets from freezing up.
A bearish double-top chart pattern also accelerated technical selling as prices slid below $1,800 an ounce. Gold has lost 7 percent since hitting a record $1,920.30 an ounce on Tuesday last week.
“If we are not able to get above the all-time high, by definition the double top remains in place. In the short term, it’s definitely going to be technical pressure,” said Adam Sarhan, CEO of New York-based Sarhan Capital.
Spot gold was down 2.1 percent at $1,781.90 an ounce by noon EDT, having dipped as low as $1,772.04. The precious metal is set for its second straight weekly loss, which would be its first two-week drop since early July.
U.S. gold futures for December fell $41.60 to $1,784.40 an ounce in heavy trade.
Silver lost 2.5 percent at $39.66 an ounce.
Equities and the euro rose after the coordinated actions by central banks eased any funding crunch created by Europe’s sovereign debt crisis. European bank
shares rallied.
“People don’t feel any more confident about the outlook for Europe, but obviously, there must be a bit more positivity for holding riskier assets,” Societe Generale analyst David Wilson said.
Gold dropped as German government bond futures staged their largest one-day fall in six months on signs of more willingness from policymakers to solve Greece’s debt crisis, prompting some to sell positions in safe-haven bonds. <GVD/EUR> French and German leaders told Greece on Wednesday it was vital to implement reforms set under a bailout plan. Patience is wearing thin among euro zone members with Greece’s failure to meet fiscal and structural reform targets.
The latest U.S. data showed an above-forecast rise in weekly U.S. jobless claims, and August inflation cooling, along with a surprisingly large contraction in a reading of regional manufacturing, highlighting weakness in the U.S. economy.
HSBC, GFMS FORECAST $2,000 GOLD
UBS analyst Edel Tully said in a note that the U.S. Federal Reserve policy meeting next week could provide fresh impetus to the gold market.
HSBC and metals consultancy GFMS said on Thursday they see gold rising above $2,000 an ounce, citing high government debt levels and instability in the currency markets.
GFMS, a unit of Thomson Reuters, said it expected gold to break through $2,000 an ounce by year-end, as recovering investment added to already strong bar, jewelry and official sector buying.
Spot platinum was down 1.4 percent at $1,782.50 an ounce, and spot palladium was up 0.1 percent at $716.50 an ounce.
 
Url: http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/15/us-markets-precious-idUSTRE78401J20110915
 

01 Sep
Media Quotes

Reuters Quote: Copper caps worst monthly loss since June 2010

Wed Aug 31, 2011 2:41pm EDT

  * London copper breaks above 200-day moving average

 * COMEX copper still eyes death cross technical barrier
 * Labour talks continue at Vale's Canadian nickel ops
 * Coming up: China/U.S. manufacturing data Thurs.
 (Rewrites, adds New York dateline/byline, updates with New York closing copper price, adds
graphic and analyst comments)
 By Chris Kelly and Melanie Burton
 NEW YORK/LONDON, Aug 31 (Reuters) - Copper capped its worst monthly performance in more than a
year with a firmer close on Wednesday, as concerns about tightening supply and upbeat U.S. data
steered the rally.
 Losses in the base metals complex piled up in August, with aluminum CMAL3 posting its weakest
performance since May 2010, zinc's CMZN3 weakest since November 2010, and tin's CMSN3 greatest
monthly loss since October 2008.
 But the selling pressures came to a halt on the last day of the month Wednesday, with technical
momentum and supply-side restraints fueling gains in copper.
 "It is very much a case of refocusing on fundamentals. We had an awful Chilean production
report which highlights the challenges the industry faces in trying to grow supply this year," said
Gayle Berry, analyst at Barcap. [ID:nN1E77T0BQ]
 London Metal Exchange (LME) copper for three-month delivery CMCU3 broke above its 200-day
moving average at $9,286 a tonne at one point, before ending at $9,275, up $115 on the day.
 In New York, the key December COMEX contract HGZ1 jumped 6.30 cents or 1.5 percent to settle
at $4.2045 per lb.
 It too received a technical boost with an earlier breach of its 100-day moving average at
$4.2092.
 But analysts said the move lacked conviction and a greater technical barrier stood in its way.
 "I still think there is still some work to be done," said Adam Sarhan, chief executive of Sarhan Capital in New York.
 "We are seeing a light-volume bounce up to a logical area of resistance ... there is also the issue of a death cross, which bodes poorly for the near-term outlook."
 A death cross occurs when the 50-day moving average sinks below, or crosses over, its 200-day moving average.
 (Graphic: link.reuters.com/puk53s )
 "As long as copper stays below its 50- and 200-day moving averages, the bears remain in control."
 Total copper trading volumes in New York reached about 29,000 lots -- more than 40 percent
below the 30-day average, according to preliminary data from Thomson Reuters.
 Copper received a boost from a report that the U.S. private sector added 91,000 jobs in August
while an index of factory activity in the U.S. Midwest in August and U.S. July factory orders were
better than expected. [ID:nN9E7H701V]
 "There are still a number of question marks when it comes to the macro outlook and there still
could be a lot of fear-driven weakness in prices ahead," Berry said.
 "The next month is going to be interesting because that is when seasonally you would expect
buyers to start returning to the market again so we should get a feel for how much of an impact the
slower economic data is having on actual metal fundamentals."
 Premiums for bonded copper in Shanghai have fallen more than 10 percent from last week due to
poor arbitrage and reduced demand for spot metal in the domestic market, marking the first fall in
premium since July, traders said on Wednesday.[ID:nL4E7JV1M0]
 NICKEL TALKS
 In nickel, labour talks appear to be going smoothly at Vale's (VALE5.SA) Thompson mining,
smelting and refining complex in Manitoba, Canada where the current contract expires in
mid-September.
 "Talks continue in Thompson and we remain committed to reaching a deal," a Vale spokesman told
Reuters.
 Thompson has the capacity to produce around 60,000 tonnes a year of refined nickel, according
to Reuters Metal Production Database.
 Nickel CMNI3 ended up $25 at $22,200 a tonne.
 Metals database here
 Global metal stocks link.reuters.com/deg67n
 LME stocks vs prices r.reuters.com/hub62s
 Metal Prices at 1826 GMT
 COMEX copper in cents/lb, LME prices in $/T and SHFE prices in yuan/T
 Metal            Last      Change  Pct Move   End 2010   Ytd Pct
                                                         move
 COMEX Cu       420.20        6.05     +1.46     444.70     -5.51
 LME Alum      2469.00       44.00     +1.81    2470.00     -0.04
 LME Cu        9274.00      114.00     +1.24    9600.00     -3.40
 LME Lead      2578.00       20.00     +0.78    2550.00      1.10
 LME Nickel   22200.00      250.00     +1.14   24750.00    -10.30
 LME Tin      24400.00      400.00     +1.67   26900.00     -9.29
 LME Zinc      2291.50        6.50     +0.28    2454.00     -6.62
 SHFE Alu     17470.00       25.00     +0.14   16840.00      3.74
 SHFE Cu*     68360.00      110.00     +0.16   71850.00     -4.86
 SHFE Zin     17360.00       45.00     +0.26   19475.00    -10.86
** Benchmark month for COMEX copper
* 3rd contract month for SHFE AL, CU and ZN
SHFE ZN began trading on 26/3/07
 (Additional reporting by Harpreet Bhal in London and Euan Rocha in Toronto; Editing by Alison
Birrane;editing by Sofina Mirza-Reid)
URL: http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/31/markets-metals-idUSL5E7JV0P420110831
16 Aug
Media Quotes

Latest Reuters Quote- Stocks End Up For 3rd Day

By Barani Krishnan
NEW YORK | Mon Aug 15, 2011 10:20pm BST

(Reuters) – Shares on Wall Street rose with oil prices on Monday as acquisition news and stronger-than-expected economic data in Japan led markets to steadily forge ahead after last week’s wild swings.
News that Google Inc (GOOG.O) offered to buy Motorola Mobility Holdings Inc (MMI.N) for about $12.5 billion (7.6 billion pounds) in cash fuelled a rebound in U.S. stocks for a third straight session.
Global equities climbed further out of their August hole on news that Japan’s economy shrank less than anticipated in the second quarter as companies made strides in restoring output following a devastating earthquake and tsunami.
“The Japanese news, while not overly encouraging, was another data point showing things are not nearly as bad as the selloff seemed to suggest,” said Rick Meckler, president of investment firm LibertyView Capital Management in New York.
“This is an extremely jittery market, just looking to avoid significant bad news,” he said. “I would expect there to be less volatility than we saw last week.”
Hopes that a Tuesday meeting between French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel will lead to a breakthrough on the European debt crisis added to gains.
“You have the two of the strongest people in a weak environment coming together to do something about this,” said Adam Sarhan, founder of Sarhan Capital in New York. “The markets are pricing in a situation where some of the extreme or Armageddon-type scenarios in the debt crisis will hopefully be elevated or be off the table after they meet.”
Wall Street’s Dow Jones industrial average .DJI closed up 213.88 points, or 1.90 percent, at 11,482.90. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index .SPX was up 25.68 points, or 2.18 percent, at 1,204.49. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC was up 47.22 points, or 1.88 percent, at 2,555.20.
The S&P 500 fell to a near one-year low last week as markets tumbled initially on the first-ever U.S. credit ratings downgrade and fears that Europe’s debt woes may spread. They then rebounded with almost equal force, rising more than 6 percent over the last three sessions.
“You’re seeing kind of a reversal from last week in financials,” said Thomas Villalta, portfolio manager for Jones Villalta Asset Management in Austin, Texas.
Analysts said strong buying from the corporate sector and a step up in M&A activity — such as the Google offer — aided the recovery. Motorola Mobility, the phone maker, rose 56 percent to $38.13 while Google fell 1.2 percent to $557.23.
As for the U.S. economy, a gauge of manufacturing in New York State fell for a third month in a row in August as factory orders hit their lowest level since November 2010, the New York Federal Reserve said.
Separate data from the U.S. Treasury Department showed foreigners unloaded U.S. assets in June for a second straight month and were net sellers of Treasury securities for the first time in more than two years as concern about a U.S. credit downgrade soured overseas demand.
MSCI’s all-country world stock index .MIWD00000PUS, a broad measure of global equities, rose nearly 2 percent, ratcheting up an 8 percent gain since hitting an 11-month low on Thursday.
The dollar’s drop to a three-week low against the euro, at $1.44779, lent support to commodities. U.S. crude oil settled up 3 percent at nearly $88 per barrel.
The euro was also lifted by news that the European Central Bank spent 22 billion euros to buy government debt last week to stem the spread of the debt crisis to Spain and Italy. It was the most the ECB had spent in a week on such purchases since it began buying debt in May 2010.
Most U.S. Treasuries prices were stable, while long bond prices dropped as stocks recovered and investors looked for signs of stability after last week.
The benchmark 10-year notes were last unchanged in price to yield 2.26 percent.
(Additional reporting by Jeremy Gaunt, Atul Prakash and Blaise Robinson in London, Editing by Kenneth Barry)
URl: http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/08/15/uk-markets-global-idUKTRE77E0BL20110815

15 Aug
Media Quotes

Adam Sarhan Reuters Quote: Gold/S&P Ratio Rises to 1.6

Mon Aug 15, 2011 11:04am EDT
(Corrects text in graphic to show correlation tightens to near negative 0.7, not postitive; new hyperlink)
* Gold/S&P ratio rises to 1.6, escaping range around 1.1.
* Further economic shocks should help ratio rise further
By Frank Tang
NEW YORK, Aug 12 (Reuters) – Mounting fears about a double-dip recession and a U.S. government debt crisis prompted equity investors to seek refuge in bullion, sending the Gold/S&P 500 ratio to its highest in 23 years this week. The ratio, calculated by dividing the price of an ounce of gold XAU= by the S&P 500 index .SPX, has traded in a range between 1 and 1.2 from January 2010 to June 2011. In the past four weeks it climbed nearly 50 percent, hitting 1.6 on Wednesday, the highest since September 1988.
<^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Gold/S&P hits 23-year high:  r.reuters.com/kuv23s
Gold/stocks correlation :    r.reuters.com/cez23s
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^>
Heightened economic uncertainty around the globe suggested the divergence between safe-haven gold and equities —
considered a riskier asset — has room to widen further,analysts said.
 “If we are going to enter another period of massive economic slowdown, one would have to expect risk assets and the S&P to underperform gold as well,” said Adam Sarhan, CEO of Sarhan Capital, a consultant to institutional investors.
The anticipation of dire economic events, such as the Standard & Poor’s downgrade on U.S. Treasury debt last Friday,
default by a euro zone country or problems in the European banking sector, prompted investors to favor gold at the expense
of riskier assets.
“Right now, with the dollar and euro in trouble — people are talking about the euro failing. If you have a ‘black swan’ type event with a major currency, people are going to flock toward gold,” said Sarhan, using a term for a low-probability economic shock that catches markets unprepared.
Some daytraders are reaping big returns from this week’s extreme volatility, by betting on exchange-traded funds such as
the FactorShares 2X: Gold Bull/S&P500 Bear ETF (FSG.P), which ‘double-short’ S&P futures and ‘double-long’ gold prices.
[ID:nN1E77A1CA]
On Friday, the ratio fell back to around 1.5. Daniel Hwang, senior currency strategist at GAIN Capital’s
FOREX.com, said that a possible third round of quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve could boost both gold and
equities at the same time. “My opinion is for the S&P at that point to outpace gold again as investors pull out of safety and chase higher yields in equities that are being supported by central-bank policy
actions,” Hwang said.
(Editing by Alden Bentley)
 
Source: http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/15/gold-sp500-ratio-idUSN1E77B1MA20110815
11 Aug
Media Quotes

Adam Sarhan Reuters Quote: Copper Rallies With Broader Risk Recovery

METALS-Copper ends up with broader market risk recovery

Thu Aug 11, 2011 2:57pm EDT
* Copper posts biggest one-day rally since Nov. 2010
* Base metals markets eye yuan appreciation
* Coming up: U.S. July retail sales data Friday
(Rewrites, updates with closing New York price, adds graphics,
analyst comments, New York dateline/byline)
By Chris Kelly and Pratima Desai
NEW YORK/LONDON, Aug 11 (Reuters) – Copper ended up on Thursday for only the second time this month but posted its biggest daily gain in nearly nine months, as positive economic signals in the world’s top-two consumers powered the rally.
Economic confidence, which has been savaged in recent days from a credit rating downgrade in the United States and concerns over a spreading debt crisis in Europe, was partly restored after an appreciation in the Chinese yuan and relatively positive U.S. labor market data struck a rare optimistic tone in the broader market.
“On a short-term basis, it appears that both copper and equities are putting in what appears to be a short-term low as long as this week’s lows are not breached,” said Adam Sarhan, chief executive of Sarhan Capital, a financial services firm based in New York.
But even with the positive close, recent losses have pulled copper down 1.7 percent so far this week and around 7 percent year to date, prompting some additional buying on the view that fundamentals remain strong for the metal.
“Demand from China is significant and we expect that to more than offset the falling demand in western economies,” said Ana Armstrong, chairman of Distinction Asset Management. “The sharp decline that we have seen in copper is a good buying opportunity. Whenever there is a decent sell-off investors should be ready to enter the market because global growth prospects are still quite strong.”
London Metal Exchange (LME) benchmark copper CMCU3 shot up $286, or 3.3 percent, to end at $8,881 a tonne — its largest one-day rally since Nov. 4, when the contract price surged by 3.35 percent.  In New York, the key September COMEX contract HGU1 jumped 12.00 cents or by 3 percent to settle at $4.0085 per lb, near the upper end of its $3.8560 to $4.0360 session range.
Reuters Commodities Specialist Christopher Henwood said any slowdown in global economic growth will push copper below key support levels as low as $3.40. [ID:nRTV248619]
The rally helped drive COMEX copper volumes up about 40 percent from the 30-day norm, at 66,500 lots, but well away from last Friday’s record 98,079 lots. Copper bulls fed off a strengthening yuan after top metals consumer China moved to fix its mid-point CNY=SAEC to a record high of 6.3991 versus the dollar. [ID:nEAP309B00]
“This suggests to me that Beijing is sufficiently relaxed about allowing the domestic economy to drive growth and being less dependent on the export sector,” said David Thurtell, an analyst at Citi. “It shows they are confident that the Chinese economy has sufficient momentum.”
<^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Graphic of copper imports:  link.reuters.com/suh23s
Table for July imports:                    [ID:nEAP307715]
Graphic on week’s winners/losers:
link.reuters.com/xus92s
Graphic on LME stocks, prices: r.reuters.com/hub62s
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^>
U.S. data later in the day added some support to the rally, with weekly jobless claims falling to a four-month low last week. [ID:nN1E77A099] The data helped cement gains in the base metals and equities, alike. [.EU][.N
“We suspect that equity markets will continue to set the tone for commodities for the balance of the week. Although the two diverged yesterday, it is very unusual for the pair to go their separate ways for long,” Edward Meir, analyst at MF Global, said in a note. (Copper/equities graphic: r.reuters.com/veq23s )
An indication of buying activity is canceled warrants, or material already tagged for delivery on stocks in LME-approved warehouses. <0#LME-STOCKS> MCUSTX-TOTAL Total LME copper stocks were at 463,150 tonnes and canceled warrants at 8,300 tonnes. The percentage at 1.8 percent is the lowest since February 2010.
(LME warehouse graphic: link.reuters.com/neq23s )
Zinc CMZN3 rose $86 to $2,186 a tonne, recovering from key technical support near $2,000. “$2,100 has now established itself as a good level of support for zinc and we’d expect to see further trade interest if the prices dips down towards that level again,” RBC analysts said in a note. “Fundamentally, we still don’t see any major tightness in the zinc markets appearing until late next year as mine closures will begin to constrain supply.”
 
Metal Prices at 1817 GMT
Metal            Last      Change  Pct Move   End 2010   Ytd Pct move
COMEX Cu       402.05       13.20     +3.39     444.70     -9.59
LME Alum      2412.00       16.00     +0.67    2470.00     -2.35
LME Cu        8881.00      286.00     +3.33    9600.00     -7.49
LME Lead      2382.00      107.00     +4.70    2550.00     -6.59
LME Nickel   21550.00      575.00     +2.74   24750.00    -12.93
LME Tin      23605.00      860.00     +3.78   26900.00    -12.25
LME Zinc      2186.00       86.00     +4.10    2454.00    -10.92
SHFE Alu     17635.00       45.00     +0.26   16840.00      4.72
SHFE Cu*     66710.00     -380.00     -0.57   71850.00     -7.15
SHFE Zin     16780.00       70.00     +0.42   19475.00    -13.84
 
** Benchmark month for COMEX copper
* 3rd contract month for SHFE AL, CU and ZN
SHFE ZN began trading on 26/3/07
(Additional reporting by Harpreet Bhal in London; editing by William
Hardy and Marguerita Choy)
 
Source: http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/11/markets-metals-idUSL6E7JB0X420110811
 

27 Jul
Media Quotes

Reuters Quote: Metals- Copper Ends Off As Econ Worries Trump Supply Woes

Wed Jul 27, 2011 2:41pm EDT
* Copper ends down as macro-economic jitters bite
* Escondida strike pressures already tight copper market
* Aluminium, tin hit multi-week highs
* Coming up: US jobless claims, pending home sales Thurs.
(Rewrites, adds New York dateline/byline, updates with New York closing
copper price, adds analyst comments)
By Chris Kelly and Silvia Antonioli
NEW YORK/LONDON, July 27 (Reuters) – Copper closed down on Wednesday as
a firmer dollar and macro-economic concerns continued to cloud near-term
demand prospects and limit the bullish impact of a prolonged strike at the
world’s largest copper mine.
 
It was another day of divergence in the base metals complex, with
aluminum CMAL3 extending a recent rally to its highest since early June
and tin CMSN3 reaching its priciest level since mid-May at $29,000 a
tonne.
 
With deadlocked debt talks in the United States, lingering debt
troubles in the euro zone, and another round of poor U.S. economic data,
copper’s supportive supply-side fundamentals seemed to move to the
back-burner, with investors more focused on demand implications from any
potential slowdown in the global economy.
 
“Demand seems to be the most important side of the equation for all capital markets right now due to the fact that you have several concurrent themes that could drastically cut demand,” said Adam Sarhan, chief executive of Sarhan Capital.
“If the debt situation is resolved swiftly and there is no demand destruction in the ramifications of the debt situation, then the focus is going to shift back to the supply side of the equation, and the strike will re-emerge as a leading force to drive copper prices.”
 
London Metal Exchange (LME) benchmark copper CMCU3 fell $40 to end at
$9,780 a tonne.
 
In New York, the key September COMEX contract HGU1 shed 3.15 cents to
settle at $4.4465 per lb.
 
The dollar rose against a basket of currencies .DXY, making
dollar-priced commodities costlier for holders of other currencies. [USD/]
Demand prospects dimmed after data showed new orders for long-lasting
U.S. manufactured goods fell in June and a gauge of business spending plans
slipped. [ID:nN1E76Q09V]
 
“Poor economic data this morning has the markets certainly moving to
the sidelines,” said David Bouckhout, senior commodity strategist with TD
Bank Financial Group.
 
As a result, trading volumes thinned out to a little more than 30,300
lots traded late in New York, down more than a third from the 30-day norm,
according to Thomson Reuters preliminary data.
 
 
But as a six-day strike at Chile’s huge Escondida mine showed no sign
of ebbing, copper’s downside risks looked limited, even as talks between
President Sebastian Pinera and unionists at state giant Codelco appeared to
ease the threat of contagion. [ID:nN1E76Q0UG]
 
“Analyst forecasts always build in at the beginning of each year supply
losses, and I think we are already at or close to exceeding those
forecasts,” said Evan Smith, co-manager of the U.S. Global Investors Global
Resources Fund (PSPFX) — a natural resources fund with about $900 million
in assets under management.
 
“If we start to see restocking in China or more labor disruptions or
weather disruptions to supply, the copper price will probably continue to
move sideways to higher.”
 
In a Reuters poll, analysts forecast the copper market will be in a
343,150 tonnes deficit in 2011. COMMODITYPOLL16 Some think supply
tightness may push copper prices up to record levels again.
 
“Although it may take a few attempts to break the $10,000 mark, we
expect copper prices to move above that level later in the year,” Credit
Suisse said in a note.
 
END OF DESTOCKING
Inventories of copper in LME-registered warehouses rose by 700 tonnes
to 469,800 tonnes, over a third higher than in December last year.
 
MCU-STOCKS
(Graphic: r.reuters.com/hub62s )
 
High stocks of copper in the last few months raised concerns over
reduced demand in top consumer China, where consumers were seen tapping
into their domestic stocks rather than importing more material, analysts
said.
 
But the destocking phase may be close to an end.
 
“Data for the first half as a whole strongly suggests destocking in a
number of the commodities, although the most recent monthly data points
suggest this destocking may be coming to an end,” Macquarie said in a
note.
 
“For both copper and aluminium…destocking was at its strongest over
the first four months of the year, with the May and June data implying that
the market has been either better balanced (aluminium) or that producers
have started tentatively rebuilding inventory (copper).”
 
Metal Prices at 1821 GMT
COMEX copper in cents/lb, LME prices in $/T and SHFE prices in yuan/T
Metal            Last      Change  Pct Move   End 2010   Ytd Pct
move
COMEX Cu       444.40       -3.40     -0.76     444.70     -0.07
LME Alum      2644.00       -8.00     -0.30    2470.00      7.04
LME Cu        9779.00      -41.00     -0.42    9600.00      1.86
LME Lead      2690.00       15.00     +0.56    2550.00      5.49
LME Nickel   24395.00      295.00     +1.22   24750.00     -1.43
LME Tin      28745.00      145.00     +0.51   26900.00      6.86
LME Zinc      2522.00      -10.00     -0.39    2454.00      2.77
SHFE Alu     18310.00      295.00     +1.64   16840.00      8.73
SHFE Cu*     72810.00        0.00     +0.00   71850.00      1.34
SHFE Zin     19085.00      185.00     +0.98   19475.00     -2.00
** Benchmark month for COMEX copper
* 3rd contract month for SHFE AL, CU and ZN
SHFE ZN began trading on 26/3/07
(Editing by Keiron Henderson)
URL: http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/07/27/markets-metals-idUSL6E7IR0QE20110727
 
22 Jun
Media Quotes

Sarhan Reuters Quote- METALS-Copper ends off on demand worry, recovery threats

Mon Jun 20, 2011 2:22pm EDT

* Recovery woes, euro zone debt crisis weighs on sentiment

 * Chilean mining ops unaffected by strong earthquake
 * Nickel hits lowest since November last year
 * Coming up: U.S. existing home sales Tuesday
 (Recasts, adds New York dateline/byline, updates with New York
closing copper price, adds detail and analyst comments)
 By Chris Kelly and Sue Thomas
 NEW YORK/LONDON, June 20 (Reuters) - Copper ended lower on
Monday as investors reduced risk amid concerns over metals demand
and global recovery prospects after the release of financial aid
to Greece was delayed.
 Euro-zone finance ministers gave Greece two weeks from Monday
to approve stricter austerity measures in return for another 12
billion euros in emergency loans, piling pressure on Athens to get
its ragged finances in order. [ID:nLDE75J1NR]
 "From the risk standpoint, investors are asking themselves
what solution is going to help resolve or allay some of these
concerns we are seeing from the global growth story," said Adam
Sarhan, chief executive of Sarhan Capital.
 "Greece is not resolved. Eventually you have to address the
structural imbalances that are at play. Until those structural
imbalances are addressed and resolved, the debt crisis is going to
continue in some way, shape, or form."
 As a result, the International Monetary Fund (IMGF) warned
that the economic recovery would be under threat. [ID:nB5E7GH007]
 London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month copper CMCU3 fell
$90 to end at $9,005 a tonne, but managed to bounce back from an
earlier dip through its 200-day moving average at around $8,897.
 In New York, the key September COMEX contract HGU1 settled
2.85 cents lower at $4.0925 per lb.
 Despite the negative tone, prices in London and New York stand
just 12 percent away from record highs hit in February of this
year of $10,190 per tonne and $4.63 per lb.
 "Fear is elevated ... there's no question. But when you factor
out all of the noise and just focus on the market action, we don't
see a lot of pressure ... yet," Sarhan said.
 On the supply side, a strong 6.3 magnitude earthquake in
Chile's mining heartland had little on the market after both
Codelco and Freeport McMoRan (FCX.N) said their key copper mines
were unaffected. [ID:nN08136598]
 Randy North, a trader at RBC, also cited price pressures
related to the fallout in industrial output following the March 11
earthquake and subsequent tsunami in Japan.
 "Automotive and electronics factories are just restarting (in
Japan) and it is going to take a little bit of time before metals
consumption goes back to previous levels."
 Japanese factories produce and export key components for the
automotive and manufacturing industries.
 The March earthquake and tsunami caused supply disruption in
Japan that affected industrial production worldwide.
[ID:nN27159980][ID:nL3E7HG00W]
 In this climate, people are taking money off the table, North
said.
 "We need to see copper go down to mid-$8,000 levels again to
see some more buying."
 China's credit tightening measures, aimed at calming
inflation, were also clouding the outlook for metals demand.
[ID:nL3E7HG1OC]
 NICKEL LOW
 Nickel CMNI3 hit a session low of $21,337 a tonne, its
cheapest since November last year, before ending the day with a
loss of $25 at $21,650 a tonne. It is down by about 27 percent
from the year's highs reached in February.
 "At these levels nickel is looking oversold," Barclays Capital
analyst Gayle Berry said.
 "From a fundamental perspective we don't see any reason why
nickel has underperformed to this extent."
 "LME inventories are falling yet prices have been very weak. I
think the market is pricing in expectations of a better outlook
for supply in the second half of the year."
 Nickel inventories in LME-monitored warehouses fell by 516
tonnes to 110,880 tonnes and are down nearly 20 percent since the
start of the year to a near two-year trough, data on Monday
showed.
 The International Nickel Study Group said in April it expected
the nickel market to record a 60,000-tonne surplus this year,
compared with a deficit of 30,000 tonnes in 2010. [ID:nLDE75F1ZO]
 "We believe that demand growth should at least partially
absorb additional supplies, particularly once the Japanese steel
industry recovers again," Credit Suisse said in a research note.
 Metal Prices at 1753 GMT
 COMEX copper in cents/lb, LME prices in $/T and SHFE prices in
yuan/T
 Metal            Last      Change  Pct Move   End 2010   Ytd Pct
                                                         move
 COMEX Cu       408.90       -3.20     -0.78     444.70     -8.05
 LME Alum      2530.00      -15.00     -0.59    2470.00      2.43
 LME Cu        9000.00      -95.00     -1.04    9600.00     -6.25
 LME Lead      2450.00        0.00     +0.00    2550.00     -3.92
 LME Nickel   21650.00      -25.00     -0.12   24750.00    -12.53
 LME Tin      24795.00     -210.00     -0.84   26900.00     -7.83
 LME Zinc      2171.50      -15.50     -0.71    2454.00    -11.51
 SHFE Alu     16895.00      -30.00     -0.18   16840.00      0.33
 SHFE Cu*     67260.00     -740.00     -1.09   71850.00     -6.39
 SHFE Zin     17005.00     -225.00     -1.31   19475.00    -12.68
** Benchmark month for COMEX copper
* 3rd contract month for SHFE AL, CU and ZN
SHFE ZN began trading on 26/3/07
 (Additional reporting by Silvia Antonioli in London; editing by
William Hardy and Alison Birrane)
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