Wednesday, May 12, 2010
Stock Market Commentary:

The major averages jumped, extending a week long rally after a flurry of healthy headlines from Europe were released. Volume totals were reported lower on the Nasdaq and on the NYSE compared to Tuesday’s totals which was a bit disconcerting. Advancers led decliners by a 5-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and by a 4-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq exchange.  New 52-week highs outnumbered new 52-week lows on the NYSE and on the Nasdaq exchange. There were 25 high-ranked companies from the CANSLIM.net Leaders List that made a new 52-week high and appeared on the CANSLIM.net BreakOuts Page, higher than the 19 issues that appeared on the prior session. Waning leadership has been evidenced by the recent lack of stocks making new highs as the rally came under pressure.

Contagion Fears Ease:

Several positive headlines were released from Europe which helped ease contagion woes. The Portuguese bond sale went better than expected, planned budget cuts in Spain and the U.K. went well and EU GDP topped estimates. The EU’s statistics office in Luxembourg said that gross domestic product in the 16 euro nations climbed +0.2% from the fourth quarter, when it remained unchanged. In addition, Germany’s economy unexpectedly grew in the first quarter, helped by rising exports. Interestingly, the news sent US Treasuries and the euro lower as gold and the dollar rose. Gold surged to a fresh record high even as the dollar rallied and the euro flirted with a fresh 2010 low.  

Technicals Are Improving; But Where’s The Volume?

Technically, it was encouraging to see the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the tech-heavy Nasdaq composite close above their respective 50 DMA lines for the first time since violating those levels late last week. The benchmark S&P 500 closed near its intraday high but just shy of its 50 DMA line. The primary concern at this point is that volume continues to recede compared to last week’s levels which is not ideal. Normally, one would like to see volume recede as the market declines and expand as the market rallies, which is the exact opposite of what is happening now. Only time will tell if this is a short lived correction or the start of something more ominous.   

Market Action- In A Correction; Day 3 Of Current Rally Attempt:

Wednesday marked Day 3 of the current rally attempt which means that as long as Monday’s lows are not breached the earliest a proper follow-through-day (FTD) could emerge will be this Thursday. In order for a proper FTD to emerge one would have to see at least one of the major averages rally at least +1.7% on higher volume than the prior session as a new batch of high ranked leaders trigger fresh technical buy signals. Once that occurs, then the current rally attempt will be confirmed and the ideal window for accumulating high ranked stocks will be open. However, if Monday’s lows are breached, then the day count will be reset. Trade accordingly.
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