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Long Term Look At The U.S. Stock Market: 1900-2012 (Summer)

Long Sideways Patterns Are Normal For The Stock Market:

This is one of my favorite charts because it clearly shows that we are in the middle of a long (12 yr) sideways pattern in the US stock market. These long sideways periods are “normal,” have happened before, and will happen again.

1900-2012

 
 

…And So Are Explosive Rallies!

The “good” news is that every long sideways pattern is followed by a monstrous rally! Another interesting observation is that the general public tends to lose interest in the market right before the explosive gains begin (Sound Familiar?). Stay tuned!
 

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    1. We have come too far too fast. How many times do you remember seeing the SP500 soar 17% in 3 weeks (or know of it ever happening in history)? And the kicker- the move has been on below average volume! Moreover, if the market is to get back to 1370 (2011 highs) by year end- it will have to move 28% from Oct 4- Dec 31. Possible, but probable?
    2. Nothing has changed- the “fundamental” mess that sent a slew of risk assets lower over the summer (i.e. US and EU debt issues, anemic economic growth, etc.)- are still unresolved… Everyone (right now) is focused on Greece. However, even if Greece is “handled” it does not address the broader issue: The other PIIGS are broke!
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    3. Most bear markets last 18-24 months- not less than 1 day. The S&P 500 officially hit bear market territory on 10/4 (down 20% from its 2011 high) and that lasted for a tenth of a second because that was the exact low for the year (so far). Normally, the 18-24 months allow stocks to reset their bases and paves the way for new leadership to emerge.

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  • Reuters Quote: Gold ends flat as rally pauses; $1,150/oz seen key

    NEW YORK (Reuters) – Gold futures ended a hair lower on Thursday as the market took a breather after rising for the past five consecutive sessions, and the metal must break above key resistance at $1,150 to rise further, analysts said.
    Bullion prices have climbed nearly 3 percent so far this week, largely defying a stronger dollar, as persistent fears over the fiscal health of smaller euro zone economies prompted investors to buy the metal as a haven from financial risk.
    The price of gold has been largely moving in a trading range between $1,050 and $1,150 since it rallied to a record high above $1,220 in early December, failing to show a clear direction.
    The fact that gold had a technical break-out on Wednesday while the dollar was also rallying “speaks volume” for the metal’s strong underlying demand, said Adam Sarhan, chief executive officer at New York-based Sarhan Capital.
    Sarhan said that it will be key for gold to close above $1,150 an ounce for the week, as the metal has risen toward the mark several times but had failed each time.
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