Stocks Consolidate Recent Move Near 50 DMA Line

Thursday, May 13, 2010
Market Commentary:

The major averages traded between positive and negative territory as the major averages encountered resistance near their respective 50 DMA lines. Volume totals were reported lower on the Nasdaq and on the NYSE compared to Wednesday’s totals, continuing the week long trend of inordinately light volume.  New 52-week highs outnumbered new 52-week lows on the NYSE and on the Nasdaq exchange. New leadership is a critical part of any rally effort, and while disciplined investors are awaiting a follow-through-day from at least one of the major averages it is somewhat reassuring to see the new highs list expanding again.

NY Prosecutors Focus On Mortgage Backed Securities:

Financial stocks were under pressure after a report showed a Federal investigation was launched into mortgage related bond deals. New York prosecutors are probing eight major Wall Street firms over whether they misled rating companies about mortgage-backed securities. In recent weeks, rating agencies have suffered tremendous criticism over their role in the financial crisis. It is disconcerting to see the highly influential financial group continue to lag its peers evidenced by the lackluster action in several key names. Most of the major financial firms are trading below both their respective 50 and 200 DMA lines which is not an healthy sign.   

Q1 Earnings Are Solid:

So far, +77% of S&P 500 companies beat analyst profit estimates during the first quarter. This is one of the strongest quarterly results in the past decade and bodes well for the ongoing economic recovery. Remember that in late 2009, the S&P 500 snapped a record nine-quarter losing streak in earnings which illustrated how weak the economy was since 2007. However, the fact that earnings have turned higher bodes well for the current recovery.

Market Action- In A Correction- Day 4 Of A New Rallly Attempt:

Thursday marked Day 4 of the current rally attempt which means that as long as Monday’s lows are not breached the window is now open for a proper follow-through-day (FTD) to emerge. In order for a proper FTD to emerge one would have to see at least one of the major averages rally at least +1.7% on higher volume than the prior session as a new batch of high ranked leaders trigger fresh technical buy signals. Once that occurs, then the current rally attempt will be confirmed and the ideal window for accumulating high-ranked stocks will be open again. However, if Monday’s lows are breached, then the day count will be reset. Trade accordingly.
Professional Money Management Services- Free Portfolio Review:
If your portfolio is greater than $250,000 and you would like a free portfolio review, 
Click Here to get connected with one of our portfolio managers. ** Serious inquires only, please.

Similar Posts

  • Day 9: Investors Digest A Slew of Economic & Earnings News

    Looking at the market, the major averages continue to trade near their respective 50 DMA lines as they consolidate their recent move. Remember that as long as February 5th lows are not breached the window remains open for a new follow-through day (FTD) to emerge. A new follow-through day will confirm the current rally attempt and will be produced when one of the major averages rallies at least +1.7% on higher volume than the prior session as a new batch of leaders breakout of sound bases. However, if the February 5, 2010 lows are breached then the day count will be reset and a steeper correction may unfold.

  • Investors Digest A Flurry of Economic Data

    Thursday, March 4, 2010 Market Commentary: Stocks traded between positive and negative territory and closed higher as investors digested the latest round of economic data. Volume, a critical gauge of institutional demand, was reported lower than the prior session on the Nasdaq exchange and on the NYSE. Advancers led decliners by a 11-to-8 ratio on the NYSE…

  • Weak Economic Data; Stocks Still Below 50 DMA Line

    Market Outlook- Market In A Correction
    From our point of view, the market is in a correction as a new downtrend has formed and the 50 DMA line is broken for many of the major averages. Since the beginning of May, we have urged caution as the major averages and a host of commodities began selling off. Looking forward, the next level of support is the 9-month upward trendline and the next level of resistance is the 50 DMA line and then the 2011 highs. If you are looking for specific help navigating this market, please contact us for more information.
    Want Better Results?
    You Need Better Ideas!
    We Know Markets!
    Learn How Our Consulting Services Can Help You!

  • Stocks Jump As China Eases Debt Woes

    Thursday marked Day 3 of a new rally attempt for the benchmark S&P 500 Index and Day 1 for the other major averages. That said, as long Tuesday’s lows are not breached in the S&P 500, the earliest a proper follow-through day (FTD) could occur would be Friday. However, if at anytime Tuesday’s S&P 500 Index lows are breached, then the day count will be reset. What does all of this mean for investors? Simple, the market remains in a correction which reiterates the importance of adopting a strong defense stance until a new rally is confirmed. Trade accordingly.

  • Stocks Edge Higher Ahead of Q2 Earnings Season

    Looking forward, the window is now open for disciplined investors to begin carefully buying high-ranked stocks again. Looking forward, the 200 DMA line should now act as near term support as this market continues advancing, while any reversal would be a worrisome sign. It is important to note that the NYSE composite, benchmark S&P 500 index, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average have now all seen their 50 DMA lines undercut their respective 200 DMA lines which is is known as a “death cross” and has bearish ramifications. In addition, remember to remain very selective because all of the major averages are still trading below their downward sloping 50 and 200 DMA lines and a fresh downward trendline (shown above). It was somewhat disconcerting to see volume remain light (below average) behind the confirming gains. It is important to note that approximately 75% of FTDs lead to new sustained rallies, while 25% fail. In addition, every major rally in market history has begun with a FTD, but not every FTD leads to a new rally. Trade accordingly.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *