Stocks Consolidate Recent Move Near 50 DMA Line

Thursday, May 13, 2010
Market Commentary:

The major averages traded between positive and negative territory as the major averages encountered resistance near their respective 50 DMA lines. Volume totals were reported lower on the Nasdaq and on the NYSE compared to Wednesday’s totals, continuing the week long trend of inordinately light volume.  New 52-week highs outnumbered new 52-week lows on the NYSE and on the Nasdaq exchange. New leadership is a critical part of any rally effort, and while disciplined investors are awaiting a follow-through-day from at least one of the major averages it is somewhat reassuring to see the new highs list expanding again.

NY Prosecutors Focus On Mortgage Backed Securities:

Financial stocks were under pressure after a report showed a Federal investigation was launched into mortgage related bond deals. New York prosecutors are probing eight major Wall Street firms over whether they misled rating companies about mortgage-backed securities. In recent weeks, rating agencies have suffered tremendous criticism over their role in the financial crisis. It is disconcerting to see the highly influential financial group continue to lag its peers evidenced by the lackluster action in several key names. Most of the major financial firms are trading below both their respective 50 and 200 DMA lines which is not an healthy sign.   

Q1 Earnings Are Solid:

So far, +77% of S&P 500 companies beat analyst profit estimates during the first quarter. This is one of the strongest quarterly results in the past decade and bodes well for the ongoing economic recovery. Remember that in late 2009, the S&P 500 snapped a record nine-quarter losing streak in earnings which illustrated how weak the economy was since 2007. However, the fact that earnings have turned higher bodes well for the current recovery.

Market Action- In A Correction- Day 4 Of A New Rallly Attempt:

Thursday marked Day 4 of the current rally attempt which means that as long as Monday’s lows are not breached the window is now open for a proper follow-through-day (FTD) to emerge. In order for a proper FTD to emerge one would have to see at least one of the major averages rally at least +1.7% on higher volume than the prior session as a new batch of high ranked leaders trigger fresh technical buy signals. Once that occurs, then the current rally attempt will be confirmed and the ideal window for accumulating high-ranked stocks will be open again. However, if Monday’s lows are breached, then the day count will be reset. Trade accordingly.
Professional Money Management Services- Free Portfolio Review:
If your portfolio is greater than $250,000 and you would like a free portfolio review, 
Click Here to get connected with one of our portfolio managers. ** Serious inquires only, please.

Similar Posts

  • Quiet Week on Wall Street

    Market Action-Confirmed Uptrend
    The market is back in a confirmed uptrend after a modest (and healthy) -6% correction from its post-recovery highs. We find it bullish to see the mid-cap S&P 400 index and the small cap Russell 2000 index both hit fresh all-time highs! In addition, the Dow Jones Industrial Average vaulted to a fresh post-recovery high and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq composite are just shy of fresh 2011 highs. In other news, a slew of other markets vaulted to fresh recovery highs most notably: crude oil, euro, gold, and silver which bodes well for the “risk on” trade and by extension U.S. equities. Finally, we are very happy to see a slew of high ranked stocks trigger fresh technical buy signals in recent weeks which suggests higher, not lower prices lie ahead. If you are looking for specific help navigating this market, please contact us for more information.
    Have you seen the “Wise Money Library”?
    Now, All In One Place, A Collection Of Strategies, Techniques and
    Resources That Professional Traders and Investors Use
    Have a Look: www.WiseMoneyLibrary.com

  • Stocks Score A FTD, New Rally Confirmed!

    The Nasdaq composite confirmed its latest rally attempt and produced a sound FTD which means the window is now open to begin buying high-ranked stocks again. Technically, it was encouraging to see the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the benchmark S&P 500 index close above their respective 200 DMA lines. However, the fact that volume receded compared to the prior session prevented the DJIA and S&P 500 from scoring a proper FTD.
    At this point, the S&P 500 is down -8.5% from its 19-month high of 1,219 and managed to close above resistance (200 DMA line) of its latest trading range. Looking forward, the 200 DMA line should now act as support as this market continues advancing. Remember to remain very selective because all the major averages are still trading below their downward sloping 50 DMA lines. It was also disconcerting to see volume remain suspiciously light behind Tuesday’s move. It is important to note that approximately +75% of FTD’s lead to new sustained rallies, while +25% fail. In addition, every major rally in market history has begun with a FTD, but not every FTD leads to a new rally. Trade accordingly.

  • Week-In-Review: Stocks End Flat After Support Was Defended

    Stocks End Flat After Support Was Defended It was another volatile week on Wall Street as investors digested a slew of economic and earnings data. Apple was the big standout winner last week as the stock shot up to new highs after reporting earnings and legendary investor Warren Buffet announced he was increasing his position…

  • Stocks Rally On Elections, QE II & Strong Jobs Data

    Friday, November 5, 2010 Stock Market Commentary: Stocks and commodities soared as the US dollar fell one day after the Federal Reserve announced a second round of quantitative easing. Volume patterns remain healthy as the major averages are now in their 10th week of their ongoing rally.On average, market internals remain healthy evidenced by an…

  • Stocks Bounce Back From Egregiously Oversold Levels

    Market Action- Market In A Correction; 28-Week Rally Ends
    All the major averages sliced below their respective 50 DMA lines on Thursday, March 10, 2011 and continued falling since then. Thursday, March 17, 2011 marked day 1 of a new rally attempt which means that the earlest a possible follow-through day (FTD) could emerge would be Tuesday, as long as Thursday’s lows are not breached. However, if Thursday’s lows are breached, then the day count will be reset and odds will favor lower prices, not higher, will follow. It is important to note that the recent ominous action reiterates the importance of raising cash and playing strong defense until a new FTD emerges. If you are looking for specific help navigating this market, please contact us for more information.
    Don’t Miss Out!
    Have You Seen How Our New Site Can Help You!
    Visit: www.SarhanCapital.com Today!

  • Stocks Plunge As Contagion Fears Spread

    The market is currently in a correction which, according to historical precedent, suggests 3 out of 4 stocks will follow the market lower until a new follow-through day emerges. That said, taking the appropriate action on a case-by-case basis with your stocks prompts investors to raise cash when any holdings start getting in trouble. It is also important to note that the major averages have experienced multiple “corrections” since the March 2009 lows and each one has been mild at best (less than a -10% decline from the recent high). Therefore, it will be very interesting to see how low this correction goes before the bulls show up and defend support (if that happens).
    Additionally, it is important to note that the market can go much lower (or higher) than anyone thinks; so it is of the utmost importance to filter out the “noise” and carefully analyze price and volume for the best read on the health of the market.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *