Stocks Consolidate Recent Move Near 50 DMA Line

Thursday, May 13, 2010
Market Commentary:

The major averages traded between positive and negative territory as the major averages encountered resistance near their respective 50 DMA lines. Volume totals were reported lower on the Nasdaq and on the NYSE compared to Wednesday’s totals, continuing the week long trend of inordinately light volume.  New 52-week highs outnumbered new 52-week lows on the NYSE and on the Nasdaq exchange. New leadership is a critical part of any rally effort, and while disciplined investors are awaiting a follow-through-day from at least one of the major averages it is somewhat reassuring to see the new highs list expanding again.

NY Prosecutors Focus On Mortgage Backed Securities:

Financial stocks were under pressure after a report showed a Federal investigation was launched into mortgage related bond deals. New York prosecutors are probing eight major Wall Street firms over whether they misled rating companies about mortgage-backed securities. In recent weeks, rating agencies have suffered tremendous criticism over their role in the financial crisis. It is disconcerting to see the highly influential financial group continue to lag its peers evidenced by the lackluster action in several key names. Most of the major financial firms are trading below both their respective 50 and 200 DMA lines which is not an healthy sign.   

Q1 Earnings Are Solid:

So far, +77% of S&P 500 companies beat analyst profit estimates during the first quarter. This is one of the strongest quarterly results in the past decade and bodes well for the ongoing economic recovery. Remember that in late 2009, the S&P 500 snapped a record nine-quarter losing streak in earnings which illustrated how weak the economy was since 2007. However, the fact that earnings have turned higher bodes well for the current recovery.

Market Action- In A Correction- Day 4 Of A New Rallly Attempt:

Thursday marked Day 4 of the current rally attempt which means that as long as Monday’s lows are not breached the window is now open for a proper follow-through-day (FTD) to emerge. In order for a proper FTD to emerge one would have to see at least one of the major averages rally at least +1.7% on higher volume than the prior session as a new batch of high ranked leaders trigger fresh technical buy signals. Once that occurs, then the current rally attempt will be confirmed and the ideal window for accumulating high-ranked stocks will be open again. However, if Monday’s lows are breached, then the day count will be reset. Trade accordingly.
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  • Slower Economic Growth Ahead?

    Thursday, May 19, 2011
    Stock Market Commentary:
    Stocks and a host of commodities ended mixed after the latest economic data missed estimates. So far, the old adage, “Sell in May and Go Away,” appears to be working brilliantly. From our vantage point, the market rally remains under pressure due to the lackluster action in the major averages and several leading stocks.
    Lousy Economic Data Weighs On Stocks:
    Investors digested a slew of economic data on Thursday. On the plus side, the Labor Department said weekly jobless claims fell by -29,000 to 409,000 last week but the four-week average is still above 400,000. On the downside, existing homes sales missed estimates at a 5.05 million annual unit rate, down -0.8% in April and tanked -12.9% vs. the same period in 2010. Leading economic indicators fell -0.3% in April following a 0.7% jump in March. The report also missed the Street’s estimates. In other news, the Philly Fed Survey also missed estimates which suggests sluggish economic growth may be on the horizon.
    Market Outlook- Rally Under Pressure
    From our point of view, the market rally is under serious pressure which suggests caution is paramount at this juncture. Looking forward, the next level of support for the major averages are their respective 50 DMA lines and resistance is their 2011 highs. The rally remains in tact as long as support holds on a closing basis. If you are looking for specific help navigating this market, please contact us for more information.
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