Stocks End Relatively Flat In Final Week of August

Tuesday, March 20, 2012 Stock Market Commentary: Finally, stocks and other risk assets fell as fear spread that China’s red-hot economy would begin to slow. As we have been mentioning for weeks, the market is extended to the upside and we would not be surprised to see a nice pullback to shake out the weak/late…
Looking at the market, Tuesday marked Day 3 of a new rally attempt which means that as long as last Friday’s lows are not breached this rally attempt remains intact. In addition, the earliest a possible follow-through day (FTD) could emerge will be this Wednesday if the major averages rally at least +1.7% on higher volume than the prior session. However, if Friday’s lows are breached then the day count will be reset and a steeper correction may unfold.
Friday, October 26, 2012 Stock Market Commentary: The major averages ended in the red last week but the bulls showed up and defended the Nasdaq’s 200 DMA line- for now. So far, this is nothing more than a normal pullback after a big run evidenced by the fact that the benchmark S&P 500 is just…
STOCK MARKET COMMENTARY: FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 20, 2013 The SPX and DJIA surged to fresh record highs after the Fed decided to taper QE by $10B per month. The Fed will now print $75B each month instead of $85B (more below), which is still very bullish for stocks. Technically, the action continues to be very bullish…
Monday’s action was a strong sign for the market rally that began on the September 1, 2010 follow-through day (FTD). Looking forward, the window is now open for disciplined investors to begin carefully buying high-ranked stocks again. It was encouraging to see a flurry of high-ranked leaders trigger fresh technical buy signals and break out of sound bases in recent sessions. The next important level to watch for the major averages are their respective 200-day moving average (DMA) lines. It is important to note that approximately 75% of FTDs lead to new sustained rallies, while 25% fail. In addition, every major rally in market history has begun with a FTD, but not every FTD leads to a new rally. Trade accordingly.
The 12-week rally ended on Tuesday, November 16, 2010 after the major averages plunged in heavy volume back down towards their respective 50 DMA lines. In recent weeks, we have repeatedly written about how the major averages were experiencing wide-and-loose action after a big move and made it very clear that that was not a healthy sign. At this point, we are looking for a new rally to be confirmed with a new follow-through day before taking any new positions. However, we would be remiss not to note that the major averages deserve the bullish benefit of the doubt as long as they remain above their respective 50 DMA lines. Caution and patience are key at this point. Trade accordingly.