Stocks End Relatively Flat In Final Week of August


Market Action-Confirmed Uptrend
The market is back in a confirmed uptrend after a modest (and healthy) -6% correction from its post-recovery highs. We find it bullish to see the mid-cap S&P 400 index and the small cap Russell 2000 index both hit fresh all-time highs! In addition, the Dow Jones Industrial Average vaulted to a fresh post-recovery high and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq composite are just shy of fresh 2011 highs. Finally, we are very happy to see a slew of high ranked stocks trigger fresh technical buy signals in recent weeks which suggests higher, not lower prices lie ahead. If you are looking for specific help navigating this market, please contact us for more information.
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Looking forward, the window is now open for disciplined investors to begin carefully buying high-ranked stocks again. It was encouraging to see a flurry of high-ranked leaders trigger fresh technical buy signals and break out of sound bases in recent sessions. The next important level to watch for the major averages are their respective 200-day moving average (DMA) lines. It is important to note that approximately 75% of FTDs lead to new sustained rallies, while 25% fail. In addition, every major rally in market history has begun with a FTD, but not every FTD leads to a new rally. Trade accordingly.
At this point, all the major averages sliced and closed below their respective 200 DMA lines which suggests lower prices will likely follow. Furthermore, the NYSE composite undercut its Thursday, May 6, 2010 low (Flash crash) which bodes poorly for this market. In addition, all the major averages are now down over -10% from their late April highs which is the first time that occurred since the March 2009 low. On Wednesday, all the major averages undercut their recent lows which means the day count was reset and we are now looking for Day 1 of a new rally attempt to occur. What does all of this mean for investors? Simple, the market remains in a correction which reiterates the importance of adopting a strong defense stance until a new rally is confirmed. Trade accordingly.
Monday January 11, 2010 Market Commentary: The major averages closed mixed after China reported record imports and earnings season officially began. Volume, an important indicator of institutional sponsorship, was reported slightly lower than Friday’s totals on the NYSE and was about even to slightly higher on the Nasdaq exchange which indicated large institutions were not aggressively buying or…
Tuesday, January 31, 2012 Stock Market Commentary: Stocks and a slew of other risk assets were quit on the last trading day of the month as investors digested the latest round of economic and earnings data. From our point of view, the major averages confirmed their latest rally attempt on Tuesday 1.3.12 which was Day…
Thursday, February 02, 2012 Stock Market Commentary: Stocks and a slew of other risk assets were relatively quiet ahead of Friday’s much anticapitated nonfarm payrolls report. From our point of view, the major averages confirmed their latest rally attempt on Tuesday 1.3.12 which was Day 9 of their current rally attempt. It was also encouraging…