SPX Found Support Above Its 200 DMA Line
Friday, June 8, 2012
Stock Market Commentary:
Stocks and a slew of other “riskon” assets bounced from deeply oversold levels as hope spread that another round of global monetary easing will curb the economic slowdown across the globe. In early May, all the major averages sliced below their respective 50 DMA lines which prompted us to label this market “in a correction.” For the past few weeks, we have written about the importance of being defensive especially because the action in the major averages and a slew of leading stocks deteriorated. After the sharp fall, the bulls showed up and are doing their best to defend the longer term 200 DMA lines for the major averages. If that level is “broken” on a closing basis- then we have to expect another leg lower to begin.
Monday-Wednesday’s Action- Bulls Defend 200 DMA Line:
Stocks rallied on Monday erasing earlier losses and marked Day 1 of a new rally attempt. Stocks looked passed a lackluster non-manufacturing PMI reading from China and were hopeful that the EU crisis was not deteriorating further. The CRB Commodity Index managed to snap a four day losing streak which also helped stocks rally. The euro, which is a great barometer for “riskon” assets, also rallied from deeply oversold levels which paved the way for a “riskon” day.
Stocks rallied on Tuesday after the latest round of economic data was mixed. European retail sales slid but non-manufacturing PMI improved marginally. Finance ministers from the G7 held an emergency teleconference but failed to come up with any ground breaking solutions. The latest ISM Services Index rose to 53.7 in May from 53.5 in April. Moody’s one of the popular rating agencies, slashed the ratings on several European banks.
Stocks extended their gains on Wednesday after the ECB held rates steady at 1% and optimism spread. The ECB held its key interest rate unchanged at 1% which matched expectations. ECB President Mario Draghi said the central bank will do its best to curb inflation but added that inflation pressures remain subdued. Draghi also said the ECB expects inflation should remain above 2% for the rest of 2012 and then fall to 1-2% in 2013.
Thursday & Friday’s Action- Stocks Slide As Enthusiasm Wanes:
Before Thursday’s open, China lowered their interest rates by 25 basis points to 6.31% to help boost their “sagging economy.” The PBC move was not expected and helped send a slew of risk assets higher. Janet Yellen, the vice chair of the Fed, gave a speech in Boston where she made a case for another round of monetary easing to protect and stimulate the US economy from the impact of the euro zone debt crisis. After the open, Bernanke testified before the Congressional Joint Economic Committee and reiterated his recent stance regarding continued “downside” risks to the economy and capital markets. In European news, Spain has not yet requested assistance from the ECB and has resisted being placed under international supervision. However, Reuters reported that both German and European Union officials are urgently searching for solutions to their onerous debt problems. Stocks sold off in the final hour after the U.S. Fed boosted capital requirements for several of the country’s largest banks. Stocks rallied on Friday as enthusiasm regarding the global economy improved.
Market Outlook- In A Correction
From our point of view, the market is back in a correction now that all the major averages are back below their respective 50 DMA lines. April’s lows were breached and in the short term should now serve as resistance. Looking forward the 200 DMA line and June’s lows are the next level of support. As always, keep your losses small and never argue with the tape. If you are looking for specific help navigating this market, feel free to contact us for more information. That’s what we are here for!