Stocks and a slew of other “riskon” assets bounced from deeply oversold levels as hope spread that another round of global monetary easing will curb the economic slowdown across the globe. In early May, all the major averages sliced below their respective 50 DMA lines which prompted us to label this market “in a correction.” For the past few weeks, we have written about the importance of being defensive especially because the action in the major averages and a slew of leading stocks deteriorated. After the sharp fall, the bulls showed up and are doing their best to defend the longer term 200 DMA lines for the major averages. If that level is “broken” on a closing basis- then we have to expect another leg lower to begin.
Stocks rallied on Monday erasing earlier losses and marked Day 1 of a new rally attempt. Stocks looked passed a lackluster non-manufacturing PMI reading from China and were hopeful that the EU crisis was not deteriorating further. The CRB Commodity Index managed to snap a four day losing streak which also helped stocks rally. The euro, which is a great barometer for “riskon” assets, also rallied from deeply oversold levels which paved the way for a “riskon” day.
Stocks rallied on Tuesday after the latest round of economic data was mixed. European retail sales slid but non-manufacturing PMI improved marginally. Finance ministers from the G7 held an emergency teleconference but failed to come up with any ground breaking solutions. The latest ISM Services Index rose to 53.7 in May from 53.5 in April. Moody’s one of the popular rating agencies, slashed the ratings on several European banks.
Stocks extended their gains on Wednesday after the ECB held rates steady at 1% and optimism spread. The ECB held its key interest rate unchanged at 1% which matched expectations. ECB President Mario Draghi said the central bank will do its best to curb inflation but added that inflation pressures remain subdued. Draghi also said the ECB expects inflation should remain above 2% for the rest of 2012 and then fall to 1-2% in 2013.
Thursday & Friday’s Action- Stocks Slide As Enthusiasm Wanes:
Before Thursday’s open, China lowered their interest rates by 25 basis points to 6.31% to help boost their “sagging economy.” The PBC move was not expected and helped send a slew of risk assets higher. Janet Yellen, the vice chair of the Fed, gave a speech in Boston where she made a case for another round of monetary easing to protect and stimulate the US economy from the impact of the euro zone debt crisis. After the open, Bernanke testified before the Congressional Joint Economic Committee and reiterated his recent stance regarding continued “downside” risks to the economy and capital markets. In European news, Spain has not yet requested assistance from the ECB and has resisted being placed under international supervision. However, Reuters reported that both German and European Union officials are urgently searching for solutions to their onerous debt problems. Stocks sold off in the final hour after the U.S. Fed boosted capital requirements for several of the country’s largest banks. Stocks rallied on Friday as enthusiasm regarding the global economy improved.
Stocks Fall As Oil Surges 14% Over Past Two Weeks Stocks fell hard last week as the major averages paused to digest their recent and robust rally. A slew of “leading stocks” (mainly biotech, small-cap and tech stocks) fell hard last week which dragged the major averages lower. In other news, Crude Oil surged over +20%…
Friday, November 5, 2010 Stock Market Commentary: Stocks and commodities soared as the US dollar fell one day after the Federal Reserve announced a second round of quantitative easing. Volume patterns remain healthy as the major averages are now in their 10th week of their ongoing rally.On average, market internals remain healthy evidenced by an…
STOCK MARKET COMMENTARY: FRIDAY, MARCH 14, 2014 It was a tough week on Wall Street; The benchmark S&P 500 (SPX) negated its latest breakout (above), turned negative for the week and year, and closed just near its 50 dma line. In the past 6 weeks, from the Feb 5th low of 1737, the S&P 500…
Stocks Taking A Breath After A Big Run: In the short term, the market looks a little tired up here and has earned the right to pause for a while to catch its breath. The bifurcated environment we have discussed at length in recent weeks remains in full effect- as large cap stocks (on average), continue…
It is important to note that the major averages have been steadily rallying since early February and a pullback of some sort should be expected. The increasing number of distribution days is putting pressure on this 10-week rally. However, the fact that the market continues to shrug off most of the negative data bodes well for the bulls.
Stocks Rally On Trump’s 3rd Week In Office Stocks are up three weeks in a row and have literally rallied every week since Trump took office. The market closed at fresh record highs as buyers continue to accumulate stocks. Stepping back, this is beginning to feel like the very early stages of a 1999 style climax/blow-off…
