Thursday, July 28, 2011
Stock Market Commentary:
Stocks were relatively quiet on Thursday after jobless claims topped estimates, the latest round of corporate earnings were announced, and the debt stalemate continued in D.C.. It is a bit worrisome to see the Nasdaq 100 negate its latest breakout and pull back along side the other major averages. Technically, the current rally is under pressure as all the major averages are pulling back towards their respective 50 DMA lines. The Dow Jones Industrial Average & benchmark S&P 500 index sliced and closed below their respective 50 DMA line which is not a healthy sign. Looking forward, the next level of support are the 2011 lows/the 200 DMA lines and the next level of resistance are the 2011 highs.
Debt Deadline Approaches, Economic Data & Earnings Help Stocks:
Before Thursday’s open, the Labor Department said jobless claims fell by a seasonally adjusted -24,000 to 398,000 last week. It was somewhat encouraging to see claims fall below –400,000 for the first time since April 2. In case you do not know, most economists view 400,000 as the dividing line between job growth and job contraction. So it will be interesting to see if this is a one off or the beginning of a new trend (stronger job growth). Earnings news was mixed, Crocs Inc. (CROX), Skechers USA (SKX), and Green Mountain Coffee (GMCR) all rallied while Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Akamai Technologies (AKAM) fell after releasing their numbers. After Thursday’s close, the House is scheduled to vote on a Boehner’s latest plan, a slew of earnings are slated to be released, and Q2 GDP will be released before Friday’s open. It goes without saying, it will be a very ‘busy’ 24 hours.
Market Outlook- Rally Under Pressure
The latest action in the major averages suggests the current rally is under pressure. Our longstanding clients/readers know, we like to filter out the noise and focus on what matters most: market action. That said, the recent action suggests caution is paramount at this stage until all the major averages rally back towards their respective 2011 highs. If you are looking for specific help navigating this market, please contact us for more information.