Stocks Rally As Dollar Falls

Monday, October 18, 2010
Stock Market Commentary:

Stocks rallied as the US dollar fell and the latest round of economic and earnings data hit the wires.  Volume patterns remain healthy as the major averages continue their 8-week rally. Healthy volume patterns are important because they suggest large institutional investors are aggressively buying, not selling, stocks.   It is also encouraging to see, market internals remain healthy evidenced by an upward sloping Advance/Decline line and the fact that new 52-week highs continue to easily outnumber new 52-week lows on both exchanges.

Economic Data Is Mixed:

Before Monday’s opening bell,  US industrial production unexpectedly fell -0.2% last month which fell short of the small gain expected on Wall Street. At 10:00 AM EST, US homebuilder confidence rose in October to the highest level in four months which was a welcomed sign for the ailing housing market. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo confidence index rose to +16 which topped estimates and exceeded the prior month’s reading of 13.

Q3 Earnings Top Estimates:

Citigroup (C) jumped over +3% after the company said earnings rose +$0.07 compared to a loss of –$0.07 in the same period last year.  After Monday’s close, International Business Machines (IBM) and Apple Inc. (AAPL) are slated to release their Q3 results. Both stocks have enjoyed double digit percent gains since the September 1, 2010 follow-through day (FTD). Looking forward, twelve members of the 30-stock Dow Jones Industrial Average are scheduled to post Q3 earnings this week. Accordingly to Bloomberg.com (so far) over +75% of companies in the S&P 500 index that have reported their Q3 results, beat estimates

Market Action- Confirmed Rally Week 8:

The action since this rally was confirmed on the September 1, 2010 follow-through day (FTD) has been very strong and stocks are simply pausing to consolidate their recent gains. It was encouraging to see the bulls show up and defend support (formerly resistance) in recent weeks. The next level of support for the major averages is their September highs, then their respective 200-day moving average (DMA) lines while the next level of resistance is their respective April highs. Trade accordingly.

Want Better Results?
Our Private Advisory Services Can Help You!

Sarhan Consulting provides both global macro and equity only consulting services to institutional clients around the world. For years, its clientele has participated in the firm’s objective market-based outlook, which has one primary goal: to provide stable trading ideas across all asset classes.
Sarhan Capital’s consulting arm allows clients to participate in the idea generation process and be privy to many of Sarhan’s best ideas long before they are highlighted in other publications. In addition, clients receive objective feedback on their own ideas and are alerted each time Sarhan Capital traders buy and sell. Many institutional clients including hedge funds, private family offices, brokerages, registered investment advisers, and corporations, have turned to Sarhan Capital for personalized advisory/consulting services in recent years.

How We Can Help You:

  1. We employ a discretionary long/short global macro strategy that is profitable in both bull and bear markets.
  2. Achieve better results in the market by working with an objective third party who is not an internal “yes” man.
  3. Provide you with sound buy/sell ideas in real-time
  4. Provide objective feedback on your investment ideas and market outlook
  5. Contribute profitable ideas to your investment committee
  6. All investment ideas are fully transparent, unbiased, and based on market action, not someone’s opinion.
  7. Help create uniformed structure within your organization!

Contact Us Today To See How We Can Help You!

Similar Posts

  • Day 3 Of A New Rally Attempt

    Looking at the market, Wednesday marked Day 3 of a new rally attempt which means that as long as Monday’s lows are not breached, the earliest a possible follow-through day could emerge will be Thursday. However, if Monday’s lows are taken out, then the day count will be reset and the chances for a steeper correction increase markedly. It is also important to see how the major averages react to their respective 50-day moving average (DMA) lines. Until they all close above that important level the technical damage remaining on the charts is a concern. So far, the market’s reaction has been tepid at best to the latest round of economic and earnings data. Remember that the recent series of distribution days coupled with the deleterious action in the major averages suggests large institutions are aggressively selling stocks. Disciplined investors will now wait for a new follow-through day to be produced before resuming any buying efforts. Until then, patience is key.

  • Thurs Market Recap- Sarhan in Reuters: Financials lift Wall Street as rate hike optimism grows

    Thu Aug 25, 2016 11:42am EDT Wall Street reversed course to eke out small gains on late on Thursday morning as financial stocks gained after two more Federal Reserve officials said the case for an interest rate hike was strengthening. Their comments followed the hawkish tone set by key Fed policymakers in recent days and…

  • Stocks Soar on EU Bailout Rumors

    Market Outlook- In A Correction:
    The major U.S. averages are still in a “correction” as they continue to bounce towards resistance of their 2-month base. The latest follow-through day (FTD) which began on August 23, 2011 has officially ended which means we will continue “counting” days before a new rally can be confirmed. In addition, it is important to note that the bulls scored a victory since many of the major averages closed above their downward sloping 50 DMA lines for the first time since late July! The next stop is September’s highs and then their 200 DMA lines. Our longstanding clients/readers know, we like to filter out the noise and focus on what matters most: market action. If you are looking for specific help navigating this market, please contact us for more information.
    Fall Sale- We Will Double Your Order!!!
    Limited-Time Offer!
    www.FindLeadingStocks.com
    On Tap This Week:
    MONDAY: Industrial production, Fed’s Lacker and Evans speak; Earnings from IBM
    TUESDAY: PPI, treasury international capital, housing market index, Bernanke speaks; Earnings from BofA, Coca-Cola, Goldman Sachs, J&J, Apple, Intel, CSX and Yahoo
    WEDNESDAY: Weekly mortgage apps, CPI, housing starts, Fed’s Rosengren speaks, oil inventories, Fed’s Beige Book; Earnings from Morgan Stanley, Travelers, United Tech, AmEx, Ebay, Western Digital
    THURSDAY: Jobless claims, existing home sales, Philadelphia Fed survey, leading indicators, Fed’s Bullard and Kocherlakota speak, NewsCorp investor day; Earnings from AT&T, Eli Lilly, Nokia, AutoNation, Microsoft, Capital One, Chipotle and SanDisk
    FRIDAY: Fed’s Kocherlakota speaks, 2011 Dodd-Frank Rulemaking Deadline; Earnings from GE, McDonald’s, Verizon, Honeywell and Schlumberger
    Source: CNBC.com

  • 27-Week Rally Continues!

    Market Action- Rally Under Pressure; Week 27 Begins
    It was encouraging to see the bulls show up and defend the major averages’ respective 50 DMA lines in November, January, and late February. From our point of view, the market remains in rally-mode until those levels are breached. The tech-heavy Nasdaq composite and small-cap Russell 2000 indexes continue to lead evidenced by their shallow correction and strong recovery. However, it is important to note that stocks were a bit extended in recent months and this pullback (back to the 50 DMA lines) is very healthy as it shakes out the weaker hands and restores the the health of this bull market. If you are looking for specific high ranked ideas, please contact us for more information.
    Are You Looking For Someone To Manage Your Money?
    Our Private Wealth Management Services Can Help You!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *