The 24-Week Rally Is Alive & Well

Monday, February 7, 2011
Stock Market Commentary:

Stocks rallied on Monday as investors digested a slew of stronger-than-expected earnings data and the latest round of M&A news. The fact that the major averages bounced back sharply after a very brief pullback illustrates how strong this 24-week rally actually is.

Strong Start To The Week!

Stocks rose on Monday after a confluence of healthy data set the stage for another strong week. India said it expects its red-hot economy to enjoy its strongest annual rate of growth in nearly three years as the global economic recovery continues apace! Elsewhere, in Asia, Indonesia said its economy grew at the fastest pace in six years which bodes well for the Asia growth theme and the global recovery. Investor sentiment improved in Egypt as existing politicians took steps to resolve the 3-week crisis. The latest estimates show that Q4 earnings season was strong with nearly +90% of the companies in the S&P 500 which reported earnings beat or matched expectations while around 10% missed.

Market Action- Confirmed Rally; Week 24

It was encouraging to see the bulls show up and defend the major averages’ respective 50 DMA lines in November as this market proves resilient and simply refuses to go down. From our point of view, the market remains in a confirmed rally until those levels are breached. The tech-heavy Nasdaq composite and small-cap Russell 2000 indexes continue to lead evidenced by their shallow correction and strong recovery. However, it is important to note that stocks are a bit extended here and a pullback of some sort (back to the 50 DMA lines) would do wonders to restore the health of this bull market. If you are looking for specific high ranked ideas, please contact us for more information.

Are You Looking For Someone To Manage Your Money?
Our Private Wealth Management Services Can Help You!

Similar Posts

  • Stocks Edge Higher On Quiet Day

    Market Action- Market In Confirmed Rally Week 18
    It is encouraging to see the bulls show up in November and defend the 50 DMA lines for the major averages. The market remains in a confirmed rally until those levels are breached. The tech-heavy Nasdaq composite and small-cap Russell 2000 indexes continue to lead evidenced by their shallow correction and strong recovery. However, it is important to note that stocks are a bit extended here and a pullback of some sort (back to the 50 DMA lines) would do wonders to restore the health of this bull market. Put simply, stocks are strong. Trade accordingly. If you are looking for specific high ranked ideas, please contact us for more information.

  • Earnings Season Begins; Stocks Fall

    On Monday, we penned, “After three strong weeks of gains, the market appears to be showing signs that a near-term pullback might be in the cards. A slew of stocks negatively reversed (opened higher and closed lower) on Monday, which suggests a change in trend may unfold.” Therefore, Tuesday’s pullback was somewhat expected as the major averages (and leading stocks) pause to consolidate their recent gains. Is the rally over? No, but all we have to do is be cognizant of the fact that a near term pullback may occur and then trade accordingly. From our point of view, the current, 45-week rally, remains intact as long as the major averages continue trading above their respective 50 DMA lines. Until those levels are breached, the bulls deserve the benefit of the doubt.

  • Earnings & M&A News Lifts Stocks

    It is important to note that the major averages have been steadily rallying since early February and a pullback of some sort should be expected. Tuesday marked the latest distribution day since the rally was confirmed on the March 1, 2010 follow-through day (FTD). According to the paper, there are 6 distribution days for the NYSE, 5 for the S&P 500, 4 for the Dow, and 3 for the Nasdaq in recent weeks. This puts some pressure on this 9-week rally, but has yet to cause any technical damage. The fact that the market continues to shrug off any and all negative data bodes very well for this 13-month bull market.

  • Stocks Tank As Italian Yields Surge Above Critical 7% Level!

    Wednesday, November 9, 2011 Stock Market Commentary: The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are back in negative territory for the year after fresh concern spread regarding Italy’s debt woes. From our point of view, the current EU bailout plan- to use leverage & add more debt to a debt crisis- is foolish at best and does…

  • Day Count Reset; Market In A Correction 2.4.10

    Looking at the market, Thursday’s ominous action took out Monday’s lows and effectively ended the brief rally attempt which suggests a steeper correction may unfold and resets the day count for a proper follow-through day to emerge. It is also important to see how the major averages react to their respective 50-day moving average (DMA) lines which were support and are now resistance. Until they all close above that important level the technical damage remaining on the charts is a concern. So far, the market’s reaction has been tepid at best to the latest round of economic and earnings data. Remember that the recent series of distribution days coupled with the deleterious action in the major averages suggests large institutions are aggressively selling stocks. Disciplined investors will now wait for a new follow-through day to be produced before resuming any buying efforts. Until then, patience is paramount.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *