Stocks Smacked As Global Economy Slows

Gold Slices Below Both Its 50 & 200 DMA Lines!
Gold Slices Below Both Its 50 & 200 DMA Lines!

Tuesday, March 06, 2012
Stock Market Commentary:

Stocks were under pressure as several global economic powerhouses reported weaker than expected GDP growth. From our point of view, the major averages confirmed their latest rally attempt on Tuesday 1.3.12 which was Day 9 of their current rally attempt. Since then, stocks have been enjoying a very strong uptrend. However, the benchmark S&P 500 encountered resistance above its 2011 high (~1370) and is currently pulling back to consolidate its recent move. It would be perfectly normal and healthy to see a 5-9% pullback before a new leg higher begins. That would bring the S&P 500 down to 1310-1240. Until then, the bulls remain in control of this market as long as the benchmark S&P 500 stays above its 50 DMA line.

Stocks Fall On Super Tuesday As Global Growth Slows:

Before Tuesday’s open, stock markets across the globe were under pressure as fear spread that the global economic recovery would slow materially. Brazil said its economy will grow by less than 3% in 2012 which was way below estimates. Fear spread that Europe will  officially enter another recession and Greece will default on their debt. ICSC-Goldman Store Sales, which is an index that measures comparable same-store sales across the country, rose +1.3% in the first week of March. However, the year-on-year rate fell to +1.7%, from +2.7%. On the political front, the much awaited Super Tuesday finally arrived. It will be a pivotal day for the GOP, either solidifying Romney’s lead or causing a split within the already fragmented base.

Market Outlook- Confirmed Rally

Risk assets (stocks, FX, and commodities) have finally began to pullback which is considered normal as long as this pullback is mild and stops at logical levels of support (i.e. prior chart highs, 50 DMA line, etc). However, if the selling intensifes and support is breached then the bears will have regained control of this market. As always, keep your losses small and never argue with the tape. If you are looking for specific help navigating this market, feel free to contact us for more information. That’s what we are here for!
 

Similar Posts

  • Week-In-Review: Bullish Tight Post Brexit Trading Range Continues On Wall Street

    Bullish Tight Trading Range Continues The tight trading range we have seen over the past 7 weeks continues as the market pauses to digest the very strong ~10% post-brexit rally. All that has happened over the past 7 weeks is that the moving averages are playing catch up to the strong rally. So far, the…

  • Stocks Fall On Renewed EU Debt Woes

    Thursday marked Day 2 of a new rally attempt which means that the earliest a possible follow-through day (FTD) could emerge will be Monday. However, if at anytime, Wednesday’s lows (Day 1) are breached then the day count will be reset. The technical action in the major averages and the latest round of economic data bodes poorly for the market and the global recovery. Currently, resistance for the the major averages are their 50 DMA lines, then their longer term 200 DMA lines while support remains July’s lows. It is also disconcerting to see weakness in the financial group while action in leading stocks has been questionable as evidenced by the dearth of high-ranked leaders breaking out of sound bases. This emphasizes the importance of remaining cautious until the rally is back in a confirmed uptrend. Put simply, we can expect this sideways/choppy action to continue until the market breaks out above resistance or below support. The first scenario will have bullish ramifications while the second will be clearly bearish. Trade accordingly.

  • Stocks Rally As EU Debt Woes Ease

    Looking forward, the window is now open for disciplined investors to begin carefully buying high-ranked stocks again. It was encouraging to see a flurry of high-ranked leaders trigger fresh technical buy signals and break out of sound bases in recent sessions. The next important level to watch for the major averages are their respective 200-day moving average (DMA) lines. It is important to note that approximately 75% of FTDs lead to new sustained rallies, while 25% fail. In addition, every major rally in market history has begun with a FTD, but not every FTD leads to a new rally. Trade accordingly.

  • Debt Deadline; To Be, Or Not To Be?

    Market Outlook- Confirmed Rally
    The last week of June’s strong action suggests the market is back in a confirmed rally. As our longstanding clients/readers know, we like to filter out the noise and focus on what matters most: market action. That said, the recent action suggests the rally is back in a confirmed rally as all the major averages are now flirting with fresh 2011 highs. Until all the major averages violate their respective 50 DMA lines on a closing basis, the market deserves the bullish benefit of the doubt. If you are looking for specific help navigating this market, please contact us for more information.
    Stock Market Research?
    Global Macro Research?
    Want To Follow Trends?
    Learn How We Can Help You!

  • Day 1 Of A New Rally Attempt

    Looking at the market, Monday marked Day 1 of a new rally attempt which means that as long as Monday’s lows are not breached, the earliest a possible follow-through day could emerge will be this Thursday. However, if Monday’s lows are taken out, then the day count will be reset and the chances for a steeper correction increase markedly. It is also important to see how the major averages react to their respective 50 DMA lines. Until they all close above that important level the technical damage remaining on the charts is a concern. So far, the market’s reaction has been tepid at best to the latest round of economic and earnings data. Remember that the recent series of distribution days coupled with the deleterious action in the major averages suggests large institutions are aggressively selling stocks. Disciplined investors will now wait for a new follow-through day to be produced before resuming any buying efforts. Until then, patience is key.