Stocks Smacked As Global Economy Slows

Gold Slices Below Both Its 50 & 200 DMA Lines!
Gold Slices Below Both Its 50 & 200 DMA Lines!

Tuesday, March 06, 2012
Stock Market Commentary:

Stocks were under pressure as several global economic powerhouses reported weaker than expected GDP growth. From our point of view, the major averages confirmed their latest rally attempt on Tuesday 1.3.12 which was Day 9 of their current rally attempt. Since then, stocks have been enjoying a very strong uptrend. However, the benchmark S&P 500 encountered resistance above its 2011 high (~1370) and is currently pulling back to consolidate its recent move. It would be perfectly normal and healthy to see a 5-9% pullback before a new leg higher begins. That would bring the S&P 500 down to 1310-1240. Until then, the bulls remain in control of this market as long as the benchmark S&P 500 stays above its 50 DMA line.

Stocks Fall On Super Tuesday As Global Growth Slows:

Before Tuesday’s open, stock markets across the globe were under pressure as fear spread that the global economic recovery would slow materially. Brazil said its economy will grow by less than 3% in 2012 which was way below estimates. Fear spread that Europe will  officially enter another recession and Greece will default on their debt. ICSC-Goldman Store Sales, which is an index that measures comparable same-store sales across the country, rose +1.3% in the first week of March. However, the year-on-year rate fell to +1.7%, from +2.7%. On the political front, the much awaited Super Tuesday finally arrived. It will be a pivotal day for the GOP, either solidifying Romney’s lead or causing a split within the already fragmented base.

Market Outlook- Confirmed Rally

Risk assets (stocks, FX, and commodities) have finally began to pullback which is considered normal as long as this pullback is mild and stops at logical levels of support (i.e. prior chart highs, 50 DMA line, etc). However, if the selling intensifes and support is breached then the bears will have regained control of this market. As always, keep your losses small and never argue with the tape. If you are looking for specific help navigating this market, feel free to contact us for more information. That’s what we are here for!
 

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    Market Outlook- Market In A Correction:
    The market is back in a correction now that all the major averages closed below their respective 50 DMA lines and important upward trendlines. Since the beginning of May, we have urged our clients and readers to be extremely cautious as the major averages and a host of commodities began selling off. Looking forward, the next level of resistance for the major averages is their recent lows (i.e. 1294 in the S&P 500) and then their respective 50 DMA lines. The next level of support is their longer term 200 DMA lines and then their March 2011 lows.
    For those of you that are interested, the S&P 500 hit a new 2011 high on May 2, 2011. Two days later, on Wednesday, May 4, 2011, we turned cautious and said “The Rally Was Under Pressure” (read here). Then on Monday, 5.23.11, we changed our outlook to “Market In A Correction” (read here). On Monday, June 6, 2011 we pointed out that the S&P 500 violated its 9-month upward trendline (read here) and reiterated our cautious stance. If you are looking for specific help navigating this market, please contact us for more information.
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  • Head & Shoulders Top Or Double Bottom?

    It is also important to note that the major averages are currently tracing out either a massive head-and-shoulders top or a potential double bottom pattern. There are two possible scenarios from this point: the market will trade above the middle of the “W” (dotted line shown above) or it will take out the neckline of its H&S top (recent lows, not shown). Only time will tell which pattern prevails. Patience is paramount until either pattern resolves itself. Trade accordingly.