Week-In-Review: Stocks Continue To Rally As Earnings Season Begins

Stocks Rally As Earnings Season Begins

Not much changed from my comments last week. Stocks went from being overbought, to being very over-bought in a matter of a few weeks. The fact that the market refuses to fall in a meaningful fashion clearly shows you how strong the bulls are right now. Stepping back, it is important to keep a cool head and remain cognizant of the fact that the market is very over-bought and due to pullback. Buying up here, after a big move, is not prudent and it is a matter of when, not if, the market pulls back. The first important level to watch is the 50 day moving average for the major indices. Last week I noted that the semiconductor stocks ($SMH) fell while the broader markets rallied. Someone most of have been reading because, since then, Semis rallied hard and are now back above the 50 DMA line. Stepping back, the market remains very strong as we head into earnings season. Remember, in bull markets, surprises happen to the upside, not the downside. 

Mon-Wed Action:

Stocks were closed on Monday in observance of the MLK holiday. Stocks gapped up over 200 points on Tuesday but sellers finally showed up and the Dow fell around 100 points intra -day before rallying back and closing unchanged. On a daily bar, that was a negative reversal which normally marks a near term high. Instead of falling, stocks rallied hard on Wednesday after Apple (AAPL) said it will repatriate billions of dollars in overseas cash and several big banks reported earnings. The Dow jumped 322 points as investors cheered a strong start to earnings season. Accordingly to data from CNBC and Reuters, most of the companies that have reported earning so far have beat estimates.

Thur & Fri Action:

Stocks were mixed to slightly lower on Thursday as the market paused to digest its recent (and very strong) gain. Morgan Stanley (MS) reported stronger-than-expected earnings which capped off a bullish start to earnings season from the big banks. So far, most of the big banks rallied after reporting earnings which is a bullish sign. Separately, some people were concerned about a government shut down. Congress has until Friday night to avoid a shutdown. Historically, a government shutdown leads to a short-term pullback for the market. Stocks were quiet on Friday as the market waited to see what would happen in D.C. with respect to the government shutdown. The official deadline is Friday at midnight.

Market Outlook: Bulls Are Strong

The bulls are back in control and the market remains very strong. As always, keep your losses small and never argue with the tape. We’ve All Hit A “WALL” Before. Learn How To Break Your Mental Walls & Accomplish Your Goals…Learn More Here

Similar Posts

  • Stocks Bounce On A Busy Wednesday

    Stocks slid on Monday and Tuesday but the bulls showed up on Wednesday and quelled the bearish pressure. However, several leading stocks sold off hard, and negated their latest breakouts earlier in the week, which reiterates the importance of remaining selective as investors attempt to figure out how earnings season will unfold. It is important to note that the current 45-week rally remains intact as long as the major averages continue trading above their respective 50-day moving average (DMA) lines. Until those levels are breached, the bulls deserve the benefit of the doubt.

  • Tough Week On Wall Street

    Some might say that Thursday was Day 1 of a new rally attempt due to the fact that the major averages closed in the upper half of their intra-day ranges, recovering from steep losses in the first half of the session. That still does not change the fact that the market is in a correction which emphasizes the importance of raising cash and adopting a strong defensive stance until a new follow-through day emerges. For the past several weeks, this column has steadily noted the importance of remaining very selective and disciplined because all of the major averages are still trading below their downward sloping 50-day moving average (DMA) lines. Their 50 DMA line may continue to act as stubborn resistance. It was also recently noted that a series of capital markets (Crude oil, Copper, NYSE Composite Index, among others) 50 DMA line already sliced below the 200 DMA line, an event known by market technicians as a “death cross” which usually has bearish implications. On Friday, the benchmark S&P 500 Index’s 50 DMA line offically undercut its longer term 200 DMA line which means the benchmark index can be added to the list. Trade accordingly.

  • Strong Housing & Earnings Lift Stocks!

    Market Outlook- Uptrend Under Pressure:
    The last week of June’s strong action suggests the market is back in a confirmed rally. As our longstanding clients/readers know, we like to filter out the noise and focus on what matters most: market action. That said, the current rally is under severe pressure as investors patiently await earnings season and continue to digest the latest economic data. Until all the major averages violate their respective 50 DMA lines on a closing basis, the market deserves the bullish benefit of the doubt. If you are looking for specific help navigating this market, please contact us for more information.
    Stock Market Research?
    Global Macro Research?
    Want To Follow Trends?
    Learn How We Can Help You!

  • Week In Review; 50 DMA Line Is Resistance

    The bears returned from a three day hiatus on Thursday afternoon and erased Wednesday’s gains, sending the DJIA and the Nasdaq composite back below their respective 50 DMA lines. In addition, volume was heavier than the recent advance which was not a healthy sign. The highly influential financial group continues to lag its peers, evidenced by the lackluster action in several key names. Most of the major financial firms are now trading below both their respective 50 DMA and 200 DMA lines, which is another ominous sign. Stocks got smacked on Friday after news spread that French President Nicolas Sarkozy threatened to leave the EU if the trillion dollar bailout was not passed. Again, volume rose as the major averages fell. What does all this mean for investors? Simple, the market is in a correction which reiterates the importance of adopting a defense stance until a new rally is confirmed. Trade accordingly.

  • Week In Review: Healthy Week On Wall St; Stocks Eek Out Weekly Gain & Resistance Becomes Support

    Bulls Are Down But Not Out: It was a busy week on Wall Street but after everything was said and done, the market closed slightly positive which is a healthy sign for the bulls. It was also encouraging to see the bulls show up and defend the market’s prior chart highs (see below; resistance is…

  • Stocks Fall On Weak Earnings Outlook

    The action since this rally was confirmed on the September 1, 2010 follow-through day (FTD) has been very strong and stocks are simply pausing to consolidate their recent gains. It was encouraging to see the bulls show up and defend support (formerly resistance) in recent weeks. The next level of support for the major averages is their respective 200-day moving average (DMA) lines while the next level of resistance is their respective April highs. Trade accordingly.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *