3 Month Review Of The S&P 500; Much Ado About Nothing


Facts Matter:

The accompanying annotated 3-month daily chart of the S&P 500 illustrates how strong the bulls are right now. After all is said and done- the market is up less than 1% for the year, less than 1% below its all time high (hit two weeks ago on March 7th) and is trading in virtually the same spot it was three months ago.

Headlines Don’t:
In the past 3 months, the market has digested a slew of negative headlines:
  1. Several geopolitical hot-spots flared up across the globe
  2. The Map of the world has literally changed (Ukraine shrunk, Russia grew)
  3. Weather conditions adversely affected much of the global economy (Polar Vortex, drought in Brazil, etc)
  4. China’s stock market is back to the lowest level since 2009
  5. Copper prices crashed to the lowest level in 4 years (taking out major support along the way)
  6. A slew of commodities surged from deeply oversold levels (Coffee, Nat Gas, Sugar, Corn, Oats, Wheat, etc).
If I told you in December that all this would happen and asked where do you think the S&P 500 would be most people would probably have said lower. As a testament to how strong the bulls are right now – the market barely budged and is actually higher! Remember, when a market doesn’t fall on bearish news- it’s actually bullish.
spx- 3 months