Facts Will Make You Money, Not Headlines


The US stock market is (very) strong. Remember, it is very easy to get caught up in the latest headline(S) and lose track of what matters most: price action. Until I see any signs of serious distribution (heavy institutional selling) the market deserves the bullish benefit of the doubt.
Results Are Results. Period.
The S&P 500 is a fraction of a percent below its record high (hit two weeks ago on March 7). Ditto for most of the other averages (or below multi-yr highs). I have been asking for years- what does the market need to do to prove itself to the bears? Everytime this market pulls back a few percentage points- I can’t tell you how fearful people get. My inbox fills up with fear-based questions: Are we going to crash? Is this the top? etc..etc.. The why doesn’t matter as much as the what. (There are many “whys”- most people “remember” two severe bear markets since 2000, they do not trust the central bank driven rally, have a hard time looking past the latest headlines, are fear based traders, etc..etc.).The what, is that they are making fear-based decisions, get shaken out too quickly, and end up missing big rallies.  
Market Is Speaking. Are You Listening?
Contrary to most people, I am not glued to my screen all day and do not read every headline that crosses the wire. Instead, I prefer to only read one headline: The market. I do my best work in the weekly time-frame so all my decisions are made when markets are closed, typically on nights and weekends. This process allows me to remove my emotions from the decision making process, create a plan for the week and then let the market guide me (in and/or out). I do my best to drown out all that noise and focus on the tape, whenever possible. I like to say that the market is speaking. Are you listening? For me, it is tough to listen to the 24/7 daily news and the market at the same time. One tends to win (typically the news b/c it is non-stop and real people are speaking). The market is very quiet and doesn’t say a word. My job is to listen,interpret what I see happening, and adjust my positions when the facts change.
Facts Matter, Headlines Don’t:
Don’t let the latest headlines scare you. It is very easy to get caught up in the fear or headline Du jour. Avoid the temptation. Yesterday, I wrote about how Facts Matter, Not Headlines – here. Think about all the negative headlines the market has digested over the past 5 years. Natural Disasters, Nuclear Meltdowns (Fukushima), European double dip recession, Greek Debt Fiasco, Russia/Ukraine, Arab Spring, Fiscal Cliff, Tepid US Economic Recovery (new normal), etc.etc.. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 is up over 180% in the past 5 years and it has not experienced a pullback greater than 10% in almost two years! That said, what is more important the facts or the latest headline?
My Job: Provide you with intelligent ideas in the market
My job is to provide you with intelligent ideas in the market. I accomplish this goal by trading on what I see happening, not what I think will happen. Until the facts change, this is a very strong bull market and pullbacks should be bought, not sold. I hope this information is helps you. 

Monthly Chart of the S&P 500 From the March 2009 Bottom- March 2014

SPX- Monthly