Week-In-Review: Stocks Rally On Strong Economic & Earnings Data

Stocks Rally On Healthy Earnings and Economic Data

The market ended mostly higher last week as investors digested a slew of earnings, economic and central bank data. First, nearly every major central bank in the world continues its easy money stance. Even though the Fed, and a few other central banks, began raising rates, rates are still extremely low and they are doing so at a very measured (a.k.a. slow) rate. Also, if the market, or the economy, deteriorates, one would expect global central banks to stop raising or actually lower rates (depending on how steep the market/economy declines). That phenomenon is also known as the central bank put. That has been the prevailing bullish logic since the financial crisis. Second, economic data remains healthy as the market is now hoping for a big tax cut that will stimulate the economy. Finally, earnings continue to come in above estimates and that is another net positive. Stepping back, I know the market is extended to the upside so I wouldn’t be surprised to see another near term pullback unfold. Remember, eventually, this very strong bull market will end, but until it does, there is no point in fighting it.

Mon-Wed Action:

Stocks fell on Monday after Robert Mueller indicted Paul Manafort and Manafort’s right hand man. The charges against Mr. Manafort came from before he was the head Trump’s campaign. But they are serious nonetheless. Stocks largely pulled back on Monday to digest Friday’s very strong rally. Tuesday was the last day of October and the Dow & S&P 500 both enjoyed their 7th straight monthly gain. In fact, over the past year, the Dow & S&P 500 have been up 11 of the past 12 months. That is exceptionally strong. On Wednesday, stocks were quiet as the Fed decided to hold off and raise rates later in the year. That was largely expected so it was a non-event.

Thur & Fri Action:

Stocks were relatively quiet on Thursday as investors continued to digest a slew of data. According to Reuters, earnings remain strong. So far, close to 75% of the companies that have reported earnings have beat estimates, while 67% have surpassed sales estimates. Before Friday’s open, the Labor Department said, U.S. employers added 261k new jobs last month, missing estimates for 325k. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate slid to 4.1% which beat estimates for 4.2%.

Market Outlook: Bulls Are Running

The bulls are back in control and the market remains very strong. As always, keep your losses small and never argue with the tape. Get Our Free e-Book: Learn How To Buy Leading Stocks…EARLY. Get It Here…

Similar Posts

  • Stocks Smacked as Germany Adds To EU Woes

    Market Outlook- In A Correction:
    The major U.S. averages are still in a “correction” as they continue to bounce towards resistance of their 2-month base. The latest follow-through day (FTD) which began on August 23, 2011 has officially ended which means we will continue “counting” days before a new rally can be confirmed. In addition, it is important to note that the bulls scored a victory since many of the major averages closed above their downward sloping 50 DMA lines for the first time since late July! The next stop is September’s highs and then their 200 DMA lines. Our longstanding clients/readers know, we like to filter out the noise and focus on what matters most: market action. If you are looking for specific help navigating this market, please contact us for more information.
    Fall Sale- We Will Double Your Order!!!
    Limited-Time Offer!
    www.FindLeadingStocks.com
    On Tap This Week:
    MONDAY: Industrial production, Fed’s Lacker and Evans speak; Earnings from IBM
    TUESDAY: PPI, treasury international capital, housing market index, Bernanke speaks; Earnings from BofA, Coca-Cola, Goldman Sachs, J&J, Apple, Intel, CSX and Yahoo
    WEDNESDAY: Weekly mortgage apps, CPI, housing starts, Fed’s Rosengren speaks, oil inventories, Fed’s Beige Book; Earnings from Morgan Stanley, Travelers, United Tech, AmEx, Ebay, Western Digital
    THURSDAY: Jobless claims, existing home sales, Philadelphia Fed survey, leading indicators, Fed’s Bullard and Kocherlakota speak, NewsCorp investor day; Earnings from AT&T, Eli Lilly, Nokia, AutoNation, Microsoft, Capital One, Chipotle and SanDisk
    FRIDAY: Fed’s Kocherlakota speaks, 2011 Dodd-Frank Rulemaking Deadline; Earnings from GE, McDonald’s, Verizon, Honeywell and Schlumberger
    Source: CNBC.com

  • Stocks Bounce From Oversold Levels

    Wednesday, April 11, 2012 Stock Market Commentary: Stocks and other risk assets bounced back on Wednesday helping alleviate their oversold conditions. Alcoa (AA) officially kicked off earnings season with a bang after they beat already depressed expectations. Over the next few weeks it is paramount that we not only pay attention to the actual numbers…

  • Stocks Score A FTD, New Rally Confirmed!

    The Nasdaq composite confirmed its latest rally attempt and produced a sound FTD which means the window is now open to begin buying high-ranked stocks again. Technically, it was encouraging to see the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the benchmark S&P 500 index close above their respective 200 DMA lines. However, the fact that volume receded compared to the prior session prevented the DJIA and S&P 500 from scoring a proper FTD.
    At this point, the S&P 500 is down -8.5% from its 19-month high of 1,219 and managed to close above resistance (200 DMA line) of its latest trading range. Looking forward, the 200 DMA line should now act as support as this market continues advancing. Remember to remain very selective because all the major averages are still trading below their downward sloping 50 DMA lines. It was also disconcerting to see volume remain suspiciously light behind Tuesday’s move. It is important to note that approximately +75% of FTD’s lead to new sustained rallies, while +25% fail. In addition, every major rally in market history has begun with a FTD, but not every FTD leads to a new rally. Trade accordingly.

  • Stocks Edge Higher Ahead of Q2 Earnings Season

    Looking forward, the window is now open for disciplined investors to begin carefully buying high-ranked stocks again. Looking forward, the 200 DMA line should now act as near term support as this market continues advancing, while any reversal would be a worrisome sign. It is important to note that the NYSE composite, benchmark S&P 500 index, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average have now all seen their 50 DMA lines undercut their respective 200 DMA lines which is is known as a “death cross” and has bearish ramifications. In addition, remember to remain very selective because all of the major averages are still trading below their downward sloping 50 and 200 DMA lines and a fresh downward trendline (shown above). It was somewhat disconcerting to see volume remain light (below average) behind the confirming gains. It is important to note that approximately 75% of FTDs lead to new sustained rallies, while 25% fail. In addition, every major rally in market history has begun with a FTD, but not every FTD leads to a new rally. Trade accordingly.

  • Selling Continues On Wall St- 200 DMA Line Smacked

    Market Outlook- Market In A Correction
    The latest action in the major averages suggests the market is back in a correction as all the major averages are flirting with their respective 200 DMA lines. Our longstanding clients/readers know, we like to filter out the noise and focus on what matters most: market action. That said, the recent action suggests caution is paramount at this stage until all the major averages rally back towards their respective 2011 highs. If you are looking for specific help navigating this market, please contact us for more information.
    Stock Market Research?
    Global Macro Research?
    Learn How To Follow Trends?
    See How We Can Help You!

  • Happy Birthday Bull Market!

    Market Action- Rally Under Pressure; Week 28
    It was encouraging to see the bulls show up and defend the major averages’ respective 50 DMA lines in November, January, late February, and early March. From our point of view, the market remains in rally-mode until those levels are breached. The tech-heavy Nasdaq composite and small-cap Russell 2000 indexes continue to lead evidenced by their shallow correction and strong recovery. If you are looking for specific high ranked ideas, please contact us for more information.
    Have You Seen Our New Site?

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *