The Black Swan Returns
Airtime: Wed. May 12 2010 | 1:03 PM ET
Insight on the bearish options bets that initially sparked the thousand point decline on the Dow, with Nassim Taleb, “The Black Swan” author.
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November 2010 Market Commentary
The major averages ended lower in November after encountering resistance near their April 2010 highs. Furthermore, the 12 week rally which was confirmed on the September 1, 2010 follow-through day (FTD) ended on Tuesday, November 16, 2010. This corresponded with a steep rally in the US dollar and a fresh round of European debt woes.
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Resistance Should Become Support
Market Outlook- Confirmed Rally:
The major U.S. averages are back in a new confirmed rally and broke above resistance of their 6-week base. The benchmark S&P 500 index scored a proper FTD on Tuesday, October 18, 2011, i.e. Day 12, when it rallied over 2% on heavier volume than the prior session. The next important area of resistance is its longer term 200 DMA line. In addition, it is important to note that the bulls scored a victory since many of the major averages closed above their downward sloping 50 DMA lines for the first time since late July! Our longstanding clients/readers know, we like to filter out the noise and focus on what matters most: market action. If you are looking for specific help navigating this market, please contact us for more information.
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FindLeadingStocks.comAugust 2010's Monthly Stock Market Commentary
This data indicates that Monday, April 26, 2010 appeared to be a very important day for the market because that is the day that most of the popular averages printed their near-term highs and negatively reversed by closing lower from new recovery highs. In addition, after such hefty moves, a 10-18% pullback, if the indices can prove resilient enough to hold their ground near current levels, would be quite normal before the bulls return and send this market higher. However, if the 2010 lows are further breached, then odds will favor that even lower prices will follow. In addition, the downward sloping 50 DMA line undercut the longer-term 200 DMA line for many of the indices which is known as a death cross and is not a healthy sign. Trade accordingly. Never argue with the tape, and always keep your losses small.
