Best Q1 Since 1999!

Thursday, March 31, 2011
Stock Market Commentary:

Stocks were quiet on Thursday as the major averages enjoyed their best Q1 since 1999 and traders awaited Friday’s much anticpated jobs report.  It was encouraging to see a slew of leading stocks and the benchmark S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq composite, and small cap Russell 2000 index all close above their respective 50 DMA lines last week. The 28-week rally, which began on the September 1, 2010 follow-through day (FTD), ended on Thursday March 10, 2011 when all the major U.S. averages plunged below their respective 50 DMA lines in heavy trade. However, the correction was short lived when a new rally was confirmed on Thursday March 24, 2011′s healthy action. The healthy action suggests the bulls are back in control. Interestingly, it took other sources 4 days before recognizing that important fact. We have received a ton of positive feedback about our calls in recent weeks and months, and are happy to be able to help!

Jobless Claims Fall & Market Averages Q1 Results:

Before Thursday’s open, the Labor Department said initial jobless claims fell by -6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 388,000 last week. This was better than the Street’s estimate for a decline of -2,000 but the prior week’s numbers were revised up to 394,000 from an originally reported 382,000. The up tick in jobs bodes poorly for Friday’s monthly jobs report. Economists believe U.S. employers added 195,000 jobs in March. The Labor Department is slated to release March’s non farm payrolls report before Friday’s open. For the quarter, the small cap Russell 2000 index topped its peers, rallying +7%. Elsewhere, the Nasdaq composite rose +4.5%. The benchmark S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average both rose +5.5% and +6.6%, respectively.

Market Action-Confirmed Uptrend

From our point of view, the market is back in a confirmed uptrend after a modest (and healthy) -6% correction from its post-recovery highs. The fact that the Dow Jones Industrial Average, small-cap Russell 2000 index, and Copper all closed above their respective 50 DMA lines on Wednesday March, 23 was a very healthy sign and suggests higher prices will follow.  The very next day, the benchmark S&P 500 regained that important level and broke above its downward trendline (shown above). Couple that with the fact that other markets like Oil, Silver, and Gold are all at fresh post recovery highs suggests it is only a matter of time until equities follow. The final bullish sign for us was that a slew of high ranked stocks triggered fresh technical buy signals this week which suggests higher, not lower prices lie ahead. If you are looking for specific help navigating this market, please contact us for more information.

Don’t Miss Out!
Have You Seen How Our New Site Can Help You!
Visit: www.SarhanCapital.com Today!

Similar Posts

  • Quiet Day On Wall Street

    Market Action- Confirmed Rally; Week 25
    It was encouraging to see the bulls show up and defend the major averages’ respective 50 DMA lines in November as this market proves resilient and simply refuses to go down. From our point of view, the market remains in a confirmed rally until those levels are breached. The tech-heavy Nasdaq composite and small-cap Russell 2000 indexes continue to lead evidenced by their shallow correction and strong recovery. However, it is important to note that stocks are a bit extended here and a pullback of some sort (back to the 50 DMA lines) would do wonders to restore the health of this bull market. If you are looking for specific high ranked ideas, please contact us for more information.
    Are You Looking For Someone To Manage Your Money?
    Our Private Wealth Management Services Can Help You!

  • Stocks End Lower After Fed Meeting & Tepid Economic Data

    Market Action- Confirmed Rally: Distribution Day Count- 3 For Nasdaq and S&P500. 2 for NYSE Comp and DJIA since July 7 FTD.
    The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the NYSE Composite Index have traded above resistance at their long term 200-day moving average (DMA) lines and recent chart highs. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite, benchmark S&P 500, and small-cap Russell 2000 indexes still remain slightly below their recent chart highs. However, the fact that all of the major averages are trading above their respective 2-month downward trendlines bodes well for this five week rally. In order for a new leg higher to begin, all the major averages must close and remain above their respective resistance levels. Remember that the window remains open for for high-ranked stocks to be accumulated when they trigger fresh technical buy signals. Trade accordingly.

  • Slower Economic Growth Ahead?

    Thursday, May 19, 2011
    Stock Market Commentary:
    Stocks and a host of commodities ended mixed after the latest economic data missed estimates. So far, the old adage, “Sell in May and Go Away,” appears to be working brilliantly. From our vantage point, the market rally remains under pressure due to the lackluster action in the major averages and several leading stocks.
    Lousy Economic Data Weighs On Stocks:
    Investors digested a slew of economic data on Thursday. On the plus side, the Labor Department said weekly jobless claims fell by -29,000 to 409,000 last week but the four-week average is still above 400,000. On the downside, existing homes sales missed estimates at a 5.05 million annual unit rate, down -0.8% in April and tanked -12.9% vs. the same period in 2010. Leading economic indicators fell -0.3% in April following a 0.7% jump in March. The report also missed the Street’s estimates. In other news, the Philly Fed Survey also missed estimates which suggests sluggish economic growth may be on the horizon.
    Market Outlook- Rally Under Pressure
    From our point of view, the market rally is under serious pressure which suggests caution is paramount at this juncture. Looking forward, the next level of support for the major averages are their respective 50 DMA lines and resistance is their 2011 highs. The rally remains in tact as long as support holds on a closing basis. If you are looking for specific help navigating this market, please contact us for more information.
    Want Better Results?
    You Need Better Ideas!
    We Know Markets!
    Learn How We Can Help You!

  • Stocks Fall On Weak Economic News

    The action since this rally was confirmed on the September 1, 2010 follow-through day (FTD) has been strong. Looking forward, the window is open for disciplined investors to carefully buy high-ranked stocks, while many pundits are expecting that markets may consolidate following recent gains. Since the major averages negatively reversed (opened higher and closed lower) on Tuesday (after the Fed meeting) stocks have steadily declined and have now closed below support (formerly resistance) which corresponds with their summer highs. Looking forward, the next level of support for the major averages is their respective 200-day moving average (DMA) lines while the next level of resistance is their respective April highs. Trade accordingly.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *