Best Q1 Since 1999!

Thursday, March 31, 2011
Stock Market Commentary:

Stocks were quiet on Thursday as the major averages enjoyed their best Q1 since 1999 and traders awaited Friday’s much anticpated jobs report.  It was encouraging to see a slew of leading stocks and the benchmark S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq composite, and small cap Russell 2000 index all close above their respective 50 DMA lines last week. The 28-week rally, which began on the September 1, 2010 follow-through day (FTD), ended on Thursday March 10, 2011 when all the major U.S. averages plunged below their respective 50 DMA lines in heavy trade. However, the correction was short lived when a new rally was confirmed on Thursday March 24, 2011′s healthy action. The healthy action suggests the bulls are back in control. Interestingly, it took other sources 4 days before recognizing that important fact. We have received a ton of positive feedback about our calls in recent weeks and months, and are happy to be able to help!

Jobless Claims Fall & Market Averages Q1 Results:

Before Thursday’s open, the Labor Department said initial jobless claims fell by -6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 388,000 last week. This was better than the Street’s estimate for a decline of -2,000 but the prior week’s numbers were revised up to 394,000 from an originally reported 382,000. The up tick in jobs bodes poorly for Friday’s monthly jobs report. Economists believe U.S. employers added 195,000 jobs in March. The Labor Department is slated to release March’s non farm payrolls report before Friday’s open. For the quarter, the small cap Russell 2000 index topped its peers, rallying +7%. Elsewhere, the Nasdaq composite rose +4.5%. The benchmark S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average both rose +5.5% and +6.6%, respectively.

Market Action-Confirmed Uptrend

From our point of view, the market is back in a confirmed uptrend after a modest (and healthy) -6% correction from its post-recovery highs. The fact that the Dow Jones Industrial Average, small-cap Russell 2000 index, and Copper all closed above their respective 50 DMA lines on Wednesday March, 23 was a very healthy sign and suggests higher prices will follow.  The very next day, the benchmark S&P 500 regained that important level and broke above its downward trendline (shown above). Couple that with the fact that other markets like Oil, Silver, and Gold are all at fresh post recovery highs suggests it is only a matter of time until equities follow. The final bullish sign for us was that a slew of high ranked stocks triggered fresh technical buy signals this week which suggests higher, not lower prices lie ahead. If you are looking for specific help navigating this market, please contact us for more information.

Don’t Miss Out!
Have You Seen How Our New Site Can Help You!
Visit: www.SarhanCapital.com Today!

Similar Posts

  • Stocks (Barely) Snap A 6-Week Losing Streak

    Market Outlook- Market In A Correction:
    From our point of view, the market is back in a correction now that all the major averages closed below their respective 50 DMA lines and important upward trendlines. Since the beginning of May, we have urged our clients and readers to be extremely cautious as the major averages and a host of commodities began selling off. Looking forward, the next level of resistance for the major averages is their recent lows (i.e. 1294 in the S&P 500) and then their respective 50 DMA lines. The next level of support is their longer term 200 DMA lines and then their March 2011 lows.
    For those of you that are interested, the S&P 500 hit a new 2011 high on May 2, 2011. Two days later, on Wednesday, May 4, 2011, we turned cautious and said “The Rally Was Under Pressure” (read here). Then on Monday, 5.23.11, we changed our outlook to “Market In A Correction” (read here). On Monday, June 6, 2011 we pointed out that the S&P 500 violated its 9-month upward trendline (read here) and reiterated our cautious stance. We have received a lot of “thank you” emails for being “spot on” in our approach. We are humbled by your presence and very thankful for your continued support. If you are looking for specific help navigating this market, please contact us for more information.
    Stock Market Research?
    Global Macro Research?
    Want To Follow Trends?
    Learn How We Can Help You!

  • Week In Review: Sideways Action Continues Ahead of Fed Meeting

    Sideways Action Continues…For Now The market remains in “wait-and-see” mode as it pauses to digest late August’s steep sell-off and waits for next week’s Fed meeting which will conclude on 9/17. For the week, stocks edged higher but closed in the lower half of their weekly range which is a subtle sign that the bears are…

  • Week-In-Review: Stocks End Week Lower Ahead of Earnings Season

    Stocks End Week Lower Ahead of Earnings Stocks ended lower for the first full week of the new quarter and before earnings season begins in earnest. The short term action remains sloppy (to put it nicely) and continues to frustrate both the bulls and the bears. Eventually, clean trends will emerge, but for now, patience is paramount….

  • Stocks Negatively Reverse After Beige Book Shows "Modest" Economic Growth

    It is well known that a market should not be considered “healthy” unless it trades above its rising 200-day moving average (DMA) line. The fact that all the major averages are below both their 50 & 200 DMA lines bodes poorly for the near term. That said, the bears will likely remain in control until the popular averages close above their important moving averages and the euro catches a bid.

  • Flight To Safety; Stocks & Commodities Plunge As Dollar Soars!

    The market is currently in a correction which, according to historical precedent, suggests 3 out of 4 stocks will follow the market lower until a new follow-through day emerges. That said, taking the appropriate action on a case-by-case basis with your stocks prompts investors to raise cash when any holdings start getting in trouble. It is also important to note that the major averages have experienced multiple “corrections” since the March 2009 lows and each one has been mild at best (less than a -10% decline from the recent high). Therefore, it will be very interesting to see how low this correction goes before the bulls show up and defend support. Additionally, it is important to note that the market can go much lower (or higher) than anyone thinks; so it is of the utmost importance to filter out the “noise” and carefully analyze price and volume action of the major average for the best read on the health of the market. It will be very interesting to see how the market reacts to Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report slated to be released 8:30am EST.

  • Stocks Rally After Hitting Fresh 2010 Lows

    All the major averages sliced below Friday’s lows which effectively ended the current rally attempt and reset the base count. However, the S&P 500 managed to close higher for the day which marked Day 1 of a new rally attempt for that index. In addition, the earliest a proper follow-through day (FTD) could occur would be Friday, providing Tuesday’s lows are not breached. However, if at anytime, Tuesday’s lows are breached, then the day count will be reset. What does all of this mean for investors? Simple, the market remains in a correction which reiterates the importance of adopting a strong defense stance until a new rally is confirmed. Trade accordingly.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *