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The following was from my twitter feed (to get live access, simply follow @adamsarhan) on 12.29.2011 1. @adamsarhan One of the strongest correlations remains: S&P500/ $XLF (financials ETF) = +97.5%! 2. @adamsarhan Another very strong correlation is SP500/Crude Oil= +95.2%! 3. @adamsarhan However: Euro/Gold correlation remains very strong at nearly +90% 4. @adamsarhan SP 500/Gold correlation has…
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Heretofore, the action since this rally was confirmed on the September 1, 2010 follow-through day (FTD) has been strong but the market action has been wide-and-loose which is not a healthy sign. The S&P 500 sliced below its two month upward trendline (shown above) which is not ideal. The next level of support for the major averages is their September highs, then their respective 200-day moving average (DMA) lines while the next level of resistance is their respective April highs. We have enjoyed large gains since the September 1st FTD and over the past two weeks, the tape remains somewhat sloppy. Trade accordingly.
German investor sentiment fell sharply in August, according to the ZEW index Tuesday. Frieder Mokinski from ZEW, Carsten Brzeski from ING Bank and Dan Greenhaus from Miller Tabak & Co. consider the outlook.
This data indicates that Monday, April 26, 2010 appeared to be a very important day for the market because that is the day that most of the popular averages printed their near-term highs and negatively reversed by closing lower from new recovery highs. In addition, after such hefty moves, a 10-18% pullback, if the indices can prove resilient enough to hold their ground near current levels, would be quite normal before the bulls return and send this market higher. However, if the 2010 lows are further breached, then odds will favor that even lower prices will follow. In addition, the downward sloping 50 DMA line undercut the longer-term 200 DMA line for many of the indices which is known as a death cross and is not a healthy sign. Trade accordingly. Never argue with the tape, and always keep your losses small.
The major averages ended lower in November after encountering resistance near their April 2010 highs. Furthermore, the 12 week rally which was confirmed on the September 1, 2010 follow-through day (FTD) ended on Tuesday, November 16, 2010. This corresponded with a steep rally in the US dollar and a fresh round of European debt woes.