Market In A Correction; 50 DMA Line Broken

Monday, May 23, 2011
Stock Market Commentary:

Stocks and a host of commodities were smacked on Monday after Standard & Poor’s downgraded Italy’s credit rating to negative and China’s PMI slowed. So far, the old adage, “Sell in May and Go Away,” appears to be working brilliantly.  From our vantage point, the market rally remains under pressure due to the lackluster action in the major averages and several leading stocks.

Trouble In Europe Grows As Global Economic Growth Slows:

Over the weekend, Standard & Poor’s rating agency cut Italy’s credit rating to negative which sent the euro and a slew of commodities plunging. Italy, one of the “PIIGS” is the latest shoe to fall in the euro-zone. The primary reason why the euro is getting smacked is because many people are questioning the single currency’s future. In other news, economic data from China was weaker-than-expected which led many to question the ongoing global recovery theme. China has been a primary catalyst for the 2.5 year global recovery. Therefore, any material slow-down in China may derail the ongoing recovery which will adversely affect demand.

Market Outlook- Market In A Correction

From our point of view, the market is in a correction as a new downtrend has formed and the 50 DMA line is broken for many of the major averages.  Since the beginning of May, we have urged caution as the major averages and a host of commodities began selling off. Looking forward, the next level of support is the 9-month upward trendline and the next level of resistance is their 2011 highs. If you are looking for specific help navigating this market, please contact us for more information.

Want Better Results?

You Need Better Ideas!

We Know Markets!

Learn How Our Consulting Services Can Help You!

 

Similar Posts

  • Week-In-Review: Central Banks Help Stocks Hit New Highs

    Central Banks Help Stocks Hit New Highs Stocks rallied nicely last week after nearly every major central bank in the world made it clear that they will move very slowly to “normalize” rates. Additionally, politicians in D.C. made a big step to help pass the tax reform bill. Earlier this month, I wrote, the major…

  • Global Central Banks Help The Euro

    Market Outlook- Rally Under Pressure:
    The major averages confirmed their latest rally attempt on Tuesday, August 23, 2011 which was the 11th day of their latest rally attempt. It is important to note that all major rallies in history began with a FTD however not every FTD leads to a new rally (i.e. several FTDs fail). In addition, it is important to note that the major averages still are under pressure as they are all trading below their longer and shorter term moving averages (50 and 200 DMA lines) and are all still negative year-to-date. Our longstanding clients/readers know, we like to filter out the noise and focus on what matters most: market action. This rally will fail if/when several distribution days emerge or August’s lows are breached. Until then, the bulls deserve the benefit of the doubt. If you are looking for specific help navigating this market, please contact us for more information.

  • Robust Rally Continues!

    Monday-Wednesday’s Action: Stocks Successfully Test Support!
    Over the weekend, EU leaders kicked the can down the road and reschedule yet another meeting on Wednesday to tackle their onerous debt levels. Elsewhere, shares of Catepillar Inc. (CAT) gapped up after topping Q3 estimates and raised their 2012 forecasts. The news on the M&A front was healthy- shares of RightNow Technologies (RNOW) and Healthspring Inc. (HS) gapped up after agreeing to be acquired on Monday.
    Stocks fell on Tuesday and turned negative for the week as investors digested the latest round of lackluster earnings and EU leaders kicked the can down the road. Since 2008, we have been telling clients that is impossible to solve a debt crisis with more debt! However, the cognoscenti feel otherwise and as always we shall let the markets guide us.The news from the economic front was less than stellar. Consumer confidence in the U.S. unexpectedly fell in October to the lowest level since March 2009, during the “Great Recession.” Separately, the S&P Case/Shiller index of home prices in 20 major U.S. cities fell and missed estimates in August which reiterates how weak the housing market is right now.
    Stocks bounced off support (SPX 1230) on Wednesday after Germany passed a plan to expand the EU bailout measure. In the U.S., durable goods topped estimates which bodes well for the economic recovery. Durable goods rose +1.7% in September which was the largest increase in six months and topped the +0.4% estimate. In other news, mortgage applications rose last week and recovered some of the losses from the previous week as demand for purchases and refinancing rose.
    Thursday & Friday’s Action: Risk Assets Surge on EU Deal!
    Stocks soared on Thursday after private lenders agreed to a 50% haircut on their Greek debt and EU leaders agreed to leverage the hell out of their EU bailout plan. French President Nicolas Sarkozy said the EFSF (European bailout fund) will be leveraged 4-to-5 times in an attempt to curb their excessive debt woes. Sarkozy also spoke with Chinese leader Hu Jintao who offered to help Europe from imploding. Economic data in the U.S. was positive, the Labor Department said weekly jobless claims came in at 402,000 which barely beat expectations. More importantly, GDP jumped +2.5% last quarter which matched estimates and bodes well for the economic recovery. Stocks were relatively quiet on Friday after consumer spending rose but incomes remained lackluster.
    Market Outlook- Confirmed Rally:
    The major U.S. averages are back in a new confirmed rally and broke above the mid-point/resistance of their 6-week bullish double bottom base. The benchmark S&P 500 index scored a proper FTD on Tuesday, October 18, 2011, i.e. Day 12, when it rallied over 2% on heavier volume than the prior session. In addition, it is important to note that the bulls scored a victory since many of the major averages closed above their downward sloping 50 DMA lines for the first time since late July! Our longstanding clients/readers know, we like to filter out the noise and focus on what matters most: market action. If you are looking for specific help navigating this market, please contact us for more information.
    Stop Chasing Stocks,
    Let Them Chase You!
    Join FindLeadingStocks.com Today!

  • Tuesday's CNBC Quote: Stocks close mildly lower as Apple plunges more than 3%

    Evelyn Cheng U.S. stocks closed lower on Tuesday as investors eyed further declines in Apple’s stock and slight recovery in oil prices, amid continued focus on the timing of a rate hike. “What we got today was reaffirmation that the Fed would like to raise rates this year, certainly not far from consensus,” said Art…

  • Markets Tank As Global Economy Slows

    Market Outlook- Market In A Correction
    From our point of view, the market is back in a correction now that all the major averages closed below their respective 50 DMA lines and downward trendlines. Since the beginning of May, we have urged caution as the major averages and a host of commodities began selling off. The next level of resistance is their respective 2011 highs. If you are looking for specific help navigating this market, please contact us for more information.
    Stock Market Research?
    Global Macro Research?
    Want To Follow Trends?
    Learn How We Can Help You!