Negative Reversal From Resistance; Stocks Give Back Earlier Gains

Monday, November 1, 2010
Stock Market Commentary:

Stocks opened higher after Chinese manufacturing data surged to a 6-month high and US mfg data jumped to a 5-month high. However, the bears showed up and stocks lower after the US Dollar rallied and Irish bond yields jumped to the highest on record. Volume patterns remain healthy as the major averages have now begun their 10th week of their ongoing rally. However, it is important to note that there have been an ominous number of distribution days that have emerged in the popular indexes in recent sessions which suggests caution. On average, market internals remain healthy evidenced by an upward sloping Advance/Decline line and the fact that new 52-week highs continue to easily outnumber new 52-week lows on both exchanges.

Manufacturing Data and Spending Solid; Income Light

Overnight, Chinese manufacturing soared to a 6-month high which sent the dollar lower and a slew of commodities higher (oil, copper, etc.) on hopes of increasing demand. Meanwhile, US manufacturing jumped to a 5-month high which also bodes well for the demand side of the equation. Consumer spending rose while incomes fell to a 14-month low. US stocks negatively reversed today after hitting another 5 month high. This reiterates our cautious stance and suggests the bulls are getting tired after a 10-week robust rally. Again, caution is paramount during this busy headline driven week.
Market Action- Confirmed Rally, Week 10:

Heretofore, the action since this rally was confirmed on the September 1, 2010 follow-through day (FTD) has been strong but the market action has been wide-and-loose which is not a healthy sign. The S&P 500 sliced below its two month upward trendline (shown above) which is not ideal. The next level of support for the major averages is their September highs, then their respective 200-day moving average (DMA) lines while the next level of resistance is their respective April highs. We have enjoyed large gains since the September 1st FTD and over the past two weeks, the tape remains somewhat sloppy.  Trade accordingly.