New Rally Confirmed!

Wednesday, September 1, 2010
Stock Market Commentary:

Stocks soared on Wednesday, produced a proper follow-through day (FTD), and confirmed their latest rally attempt (which began on Friday) after fear eased that the global economic recovery was in peril. Wednesday’s reported volume totals were higher on the NYSE and the Nasdaq exchange compared to Tuesday’s already high levels which suggests large institutions were aggressively buying stocks. Advancers led decliners by over a 4-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and by over a 5-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq exchange. New 52-week highs outnumbered new 52-week lows on the NYSE but were about even on the Nasdaq exchange. There were 48 high-ranked companies from the CANSLIM.net Leaders List made a new 52-week high and appeared on the CANSLIM.net BreakOuts Page, sharply higher than the 16 issues that appeared on the prior session.

Strong Manufacturing Data From China & US Send Stocks Soaring!

Stocks surged as the US dollar and treasuries plunged after manufacturing in the US and China grew faster than economists expected. The stronger than expected manufacturing data from China and the US helped allay woes of a global economic slowdown and sent stocks soaring! Apple (AAPL) jumped on heavy turnover after Steve Jobs introduced updated versions of their iPod media players and iTunes software. The new versions are designed to be more social-media friendly and allow users to see what their friends are downloading, share, and “follow” other users.

Market Action- Confirmed Rally:

Looking forward, the window is now open for disciplined investors to begin carefully buying high-ranked stocks again. It was encouraging to see a flurry of high ranked stocks trigger fresh technical buy signals and break out of sound bases on Wednesday. However, the major indices’ 50-day moving average (DMA) lines currently serve as near term resistance with their 200 DMA lines as the next important level to watch.
It is of the utmost importance to remain very selective because all of the major averages are still trading below their downward sloping 50 and 200 DMA lines and their 50 DMA lines remain below their longer term 200 DMA lines. This ominous pattern is known as a death cross and typically has bearish ramifications. It is also important to note that approximately 75% of FTDs lead to new sustained rallies, while 25% fail. In addition, every major rally in market history has begun with a FTD, but not every FTD leads to a new rally. Trade accordingly.
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  • Stocks End Mixed As Dollar Edges Higher

    The major averages confirmed their latest rally attempt on Tuesday, June 15, 2010 when they produced a sound follow-through day. Looking forward, the window is now open for disciplined investors to begin carefully buying high-ranked stocks again. Technically, it was encouraging to also see the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the benchmark S&P 500 Index rally above their respective 200-day moving average (DMA) lines. Looking forward, the 200 DMA line should now act as support as this market continues advancing, while any reversal would be a worrisome sign.
    Remember to remain very selective because all of the major averages are still trading below their downward sloping 50 DMA lines. It was somewhat disconcerting to see volume remain light (below average) behind the confirming gains. It is important to note that approximately 75% of FTDs lead to new sustained rallies, while 25% fail. In addition, every major rally in market history has begun with a FTD, but not every FTD leads to a new rally. Trade accordingly.

  • Stocks Mixed As Dollar Rallies

    The 12-week rally ended on Tuesday, November 16, 2010 after the major averages plunged in heavy volume back down towards their respective 50 DMA lines. In recent weeks, we have repeatedly written about how the major averages were experiencing wide-and-loose action after a big move and made it very clear that that was not a healthy sign. At this point, we are looking for a new rally to be confirmed with a new follow-through day before taking any new positions. However, we would be remiss not to note that the major averages deserve the bullish benefit of the doubt as long as they remain above their respective 50 DMA lines. Caution and patience are key at this point. Trade accordingly.

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    Market Action-Confirmed Uptrend
    From our point of view, the market is back in a confirmed uptrend after a modest (and healthy) -6% correction from its post-recovery highs. The fact that the Dow Jones Industrial Average, small-cap Russell 2000 index, and Copper all closed above their respective 50 DMA lines on Wednesday March, 23 was a very healthy sign and suggests higher prices will follow. The very next day, the benchmark S&P 500 regained that important level and broke above its downward trendline (shown above). Couple that with the fact that other markets like Oil, Silver, and Gold are all at fresh post recovery highs suggests it is only a matter of time until equities follow. The final bullish sign for us was that a slew of high ranked stocks triggered fresh technical buy signals this week which suggests higher, not lower prices lie ahead. If you are looking for specific help navigating this market, please contact us for more information.
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