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7 Things That Concern Me About This Rally- Right Now
1. We have come too far too fast. How many times do you remember seeing the SP500 soar 17% in 3 weeks (or know of it ever happening in history)? And the kicker- the move has been on below average volume! Moreover, if the market is to get back to 1370 (2011 highs) by year end- it will have to move 28% from Oct 4- Dec 31. Possible, but probable?
2. Nothing has changed- the “fundamental” mess that sent a slew of risk assets lower over the summer (i.e. US and EU debt issues, anemic economic growth, etc.)- are still unresolved… Everyone (right now) is focused on Greece. However, even if Greece is “handled” it does not address the broader issue: The other PIIGS are broke!
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3. Most bear markets last 18-24 months- not less than 1 day. The S&P 500 officially hit bear market territory on 10/4 (down 20% from its 2011 high) and that lasted for a tenth of a second because that was the exact low for the year (so far). Normally, the 18-24 months allow stocks to reset their bases and paves the way for new leadership to emerge.
