Stocks Fall As Dollar Slides

Monday, May 16, 2011
Stock Market Commentary:

Stocks and a host of commodities were relatively quiet as the U.S. dollar fell and investors digested the latest data from the U.S. manufacturing sector and the U.S. housing market. So far, the old adage, “Sell in May and Go Away,” appears to be working brilliantly.  From our vantage point, the market rally remains under pressure due to the lackluster action in the major averages and several leading stocks.

Manufacturing & Housing Data

Over the weekend, the head of the International Monetary Fund, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, was accussed of raping a cleaning lady at a NYC hotel. Before Monday’s open, the NY Empire State manufacturing index fell nearly 10 points to 11.88 which was higher than the boom/bust level of zero signalling expansion, albeit at a slower rate than prior months.
In other news, the National Association of Home Builders released its housing market index which is based on a survey in which respondents from the organization rate the condition of the general economy and the housing market. The index matched the last reading of 16 which suggests more time is needed before the ailing housing market improves.

Market Outlook- Rally Under Pressure

From our point of view, the market rally is under pressure which suggests caution is paramount at this stage.  Looking forward, the next level of support for the major averages are their respective 50 DMA lines and resistance is their 2011 highs. The rally remains in tact as long as support holds. If you are looking for specific help navigating this market, please contact us for more information.

Want Better Results?

You Need Better Ideas!

We Know Markets!

Learn How We Can Help You!

Similar Posts

  • Stocks Perched Below Key Levels Of Resistance

    Correction: Our Market Commentary was published prematurely on Thursday. Please disregard it. Sorry For the confusion. Friday, January 11, 2012 Stock Market Commentary: Stocks are back in a confirmed uptrend and continue to rally after the fiscal cliff was averted and congress decided to put the best interest of the country ahead of their petty bickering. Stocks…

  • Downtrend Is Broken!

    Market Outlook- Market In A Confirmed Rally
    From our point of view, the market is back in a confirmed rally now that all the major averages are back above their respective 50 DMA lines and downward trendlines. Since the beginning of May, we have urged caution as the major averages and a host of commodities began selling off. However, the fact that the pullback was shallow and the market found support at its 50 DMA line in late May, suggests higher, not lower, prices lie ahead. The next level of resistance is the 2011 highs. If you are looking for specific help navigating this market, please contact us for more information.
    Want Better Results?
    You Need Better Ideas!
    We Know Markets!
    Learn How Our Consulting Services Can Help You!

  • Summer Highs Are Breached, Next Stop; April's Highs

    The action since this rally was confirmed on the September 1, 2010 follow-through day (FTD) has been strong. Looking forward, the window is open for disciplined investors to carefully buy high-ranked stocks, while many pundits are expecting that markets may consolidate following recent gains. It is very encouraging to see the major averages and several leading stocks break above stubborn resistance levels and continue marching higher. All the major averages rallied and managed to stay above their respective 200-day moving average (DMA) lines last week, which is another encouraging sign. Now that the summer highs are breached, the next important resistance level for the major averages are their respective April highs.

  • Greek Parliament Approves Austerity Measures

    Monday, February 13, 2012 Stock Market Commentary: Stocks and a slew of other risk assets opened higher on Monday after the Greek parliament approved the closely contested austerity measures for their second bailout. From our point of view, the major averages confirmed their latest rally attempt on Tuesday 1.3.12 which was Day 9 of their…

  • Day 1 Of A New Rally Attempt

    Looking at the market, Monday marked Day 1 of a new rally attempt which means that as long as Monday’s lows are not breached, the earliest a possible follow-through day could emerge will be this Thursday. However, if Monday’s lows are taken out, then the day count will be reset and the chances for a steeper correction increase markedly. It is also important to see how the major averages react to their respective 50 DMA lines. Until they all close above that important level the technical damage remaining on the charts is a concern. So far, the market’s reaction has been tepid at best to the latest round of economic and earnings data. Remember that the recent series of distribution days coupled with the deleterious action in the major averages suggests large institutions are aggressively selling stocks. Disciplined investors will now wait for a new follow-through day to be produced before resuming any buying efforts. Until then, patience is key.

  • Week In Review: Strong Start To The Year For Stocks

    STOCK MARKET COMMENTARY: FRIDAY, JUNE 28, 2013 The major averages enjoyed their largest start to the year since 1998/1999 (depending on the index), rallying above 12%. The strong bull market that we are experiencing continues to be driven by global central banks. That said, the US Fed continues to print $4B/day and other central banks…