Markets Fall As Dollar Rallies

Wednesday, May 11, 2011
Stock Market Commentary:

Stocks and a host of commodities fell as the bears showed up after a three day hiatus and sent a slew of global markets lower in heavy trade. Oil, silver, gold, and a host of other closely followed commodities fell after a brief rebound from last week’s week-long “Flash Crash.” From our vantage point, the market rally remains under pressure due to the lackluster action in the major averages and several leading stocks.

Inflation Rises Overseas While Trade Deficit Widens In U.S.

On Wednesday, China said consumer prices jumped +5.3% in April (from the same period in 2010) and lending exceeded analysts’ estimates. The news will likely prompt China’s central bank to raise rates (i.e. tighten monetary policy) to curb inflation and cool their red-hot economy. Inflation in Germany, Europe’s largest economy, also topped estimates and rose by +2.7%. Global markets fell as fear spread that Chinese demand will slow.
In other news, the U.S. trade deficit widened more than forecast in March due to surging commodity prices which eclipsed record exports.  The Commerce Department said the trade deficit rose +6% to $48.2 billion, the largest since June 2010, from $45.4 billion in February. 

Market Outlook- Rally Under Pressure

From our point of view, the market rally is under pressure which suggests caution is paramount at this stage.  Looking forward, the next level of support for the major averages are their respective 50 DMA lines and resistance is their 2011 highs. The rally remains in tact as long as support holds. If you are looking for specific help navigating this market, please contact us for more information.

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    Market Outlook- Market In A Correction:
    From our point of view, the market is back in a correction now that all the major averages closed below their respective 50 DMA lines and important upward trendlines. Since the beginning of May, we have urged our clients and readers to be extremely cautious as the major averages and a host of commodities began selling off.
    For those of you that are interested, the S&P 500 hit a new 2011 high on May 2, 2011. Two days later, on Wednesday, May 4, 2011, we turned cautious and said “The Rally Was Under Pressure” (read here). Then on Monday, 5.23.11, we changed our outlook to “Market In A Correction” (read here). On Monday June 6, 2011 we pointed out that the S&P 500 violated its 9-month upward trendline (read here) and reiterated our cautious stance. We have received a lot of “thank you” emails for being “spot on” in our cautious approach. We are humbled by your presence and very thankful for your continued support. Looking forward, the next level of resistance for the major averages is their respective 50 DMA lines then their 2011 highs. The next level of support is their longer term 200 DMA lines. If you are looking for specific help navigating this market, please contact us for more information.
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