Stocks Rally As USD Falls

Monday, December 13, 2010
Stock Market Commentary:

Stocks rallied as the USD fell and China said it will hold rates steady even though inflation is accelerating. Market internals remain healthy, evidenced by an advancing advance/decline line and an expanding number of stocks reaching new 52-week highs.

China’s Central Bank Holds Rates Steady:

China’s central bank decided to hold rates steady even though inflation accelerated to the fastest rate in more than two years. The Chinese central bank held its benchmark interest rate unchanged which helped a slew of stocks and commodities rally. The move also helped allay concerns that the world’s fastest growing major economy will slow down which would adversely affect the global recovery. The US Fed is slated to hold its last meeting of the year on Tuesday. The market believes the meeting will largely be a non-event as most of the news has already been announced.

Market Action- Market In Confirmed Rally Week 16

It is encouraging to see the bulls show up and defend the 50 DMA lines for the major averages. The market remains in a confirmed rally until those levels are breached. The tech-heavy Nasdaq composite and small-cap Russell 2000 indexes continue to lead evidenced by their shallow correction and strong recovery. Put simply, stocks are strong. Trade accordingly. If you are looking for specific high ranked ideas, please contact us for more information.

Are You Looking For Someone To Manage Your Money?
Our Private Wealth Management Services Can Help You!

Sarhan Wealth Management provides both global macro and equity only consulting services to high net worth and institutional clients around the world. For years, our clientele has participated in the firm’s objective market-based outlook, which has one primary goal: to provide robust trading ideas across all asset classes. Since 2004 we have outperformed the S&P 500 on a regular basis. These results are based solely on our weekly research. All our historical data is available upon request.
How we can improve your performance:

  • Achieve better results in the market by working with an objective third party.
  • Provide you with sound buy/sell ideas in real-time.
  • Provide objective feedback on your investment ideas and market outlook.
  • Contribute profitable ideas to your investment committee (if applicable).
  • All investment ideas are fully transparent, unbiased, and based on market action, not opinions.
  • Help create uniformed structure within your organization.

Contact Us To Learn How We Can Help You!

Similar Posts

  • Stocks Smacked As Debt Debate Continues

    Market Outlook- Market In A Correction
    The latest action in the major averages suggests the market is back in a correction as all the major averages are flirting with their respective 200 DMA lines. Our longstanding clients/readers know, we like to filter out the noise and focus on what matters most: market action. That said, the recent action suggests caution is paramount at this stage until all the major averages rally back towards their respective 2011 highs. If you are looking for specific help navigating this market, please contact us for more information.
    Stock Market Research?
    Global Macro Research?
    Learn How To Follow Trends?
    See How We Can Help You!

  • Day 1 Of A New Rally Attempt!

    Market Outlook- Market In A Correction:
    From our point of view, the market is back in a correction now that all the major averages closed below their respective 50 DMA lines and important upward trendlines. Since the beginning of May, we have urged our clients and readers to be extremely cautious as the major averages and a host of commodities began selling off.
    For those of you that are interested, the S&P 500 hit a new 2011 high on May 2, 2011. Two days later, on Wednesday, May 4, 2011, we turned cautious and said “The Rally Was Under Pressure” (read here). Then on Monday, 5.23.11, we changed our outlook to “Market In A Correction” (read here). On Monday June 6, 2011 we pointed out that the S&P 500 violated its 9-month upward trendline (read here) and reiterated our cautious stance. We have received a lot of “thank you” emails for being “spot on” in our cautious approach. We are humbled by your presence and very thankful for your continued support. Looking forward, the next level of resistance for the major averages is their respective 50 DMA lines then their 2011 highs. The next level of support is their longer term 200 DMA lines. If you are looking for specific help navigating this market, please contact us for more information.

  • Robust Rally Continues!

    Monday-Wednesday’s Action: Stocks Successfully Test Support!
    Over the weekend, EU leaders kicked the can down the road and reschedule yet another meeting on Wednesday to tackle their onerous debt levels. Elsewhere, shares of Catepillar Inc. (CAT) gapped up after topping Q3 estimates and raised their 2012 forecasts. The news on the M&A front was healthy- shares of RightNow Technologies (RNOW) and Healthspring Inc. (HS) gapped up after agreeing to be acquired on Monday.
    Stocks fell on Tuesday and turned negative for the week as investors digested the latest round of lackluster earnings and EU leaders kicked the can down the road. Since 2008, we have been telling clients that is impossible to solve a debt crisis with more debt! However, the cognoscenti feel otherwise and as always we shall let the markets guide us.The news from the economic front was less than stellar. Consumer confidence in the U.S. unexpectedly fell in October to the lowest level since March 2009, during the “Great Recession.” Separately, the S&P Case/Shiller index of home prices in 20 major U.S. cities fell and missed estimates in August which reiterates how weak the housing market is right now.
    Stocks bounced off support (SPX 1230) on Wednesday after Germany passed a plan to expand the EU bailout measure. In the U.S., durable goods topped estimates which bodes well for the economic recovery. Durable goods rose +1.7% in September which was the largest increase in six months and topped the +0.4% estimate. In other news, mortgage applications rose last week and recovered some of the losses from the previous week as demand for purchases and refinancing rose.
    Thursday & Friday’s Action: Risk Assets Surge on EU Deal!
    Stocks soared on Thursday after private lenders agreed to a 50% haircut on their Greek debt and EU leaders agreed to leverage the hell out of their EU bailout plan. French President Nicolas Sarkozy said the EFSF (European bailout fund) will be leveraged 4-to-5 times in an attempt to curb their excessive debt woes. Sarkozy also spoke with Chinese leader Hu Jintao who offered to help Europe from imploding. Economic data in the U.S. was positive, the Labor Department said weekly jobless claims came in at 402,000 which barely beat expectations. More importantly, GDP jumped +2.5% last quarter which matched estimates and bodes well for the economic recovery. Stocks were relatively quiet on Friday after consumer spending rose but incomes remained lackluster.
    Market Outlook- Confirmed Rally:
    The major U.S. averages are back in a new confirmed rally and broke above the mid-point/resistance of their 6-week bullish double bottom base. The benchmark S&P 500 index scored a proper FTD on Tuesday, October 18, 2011, i.e. Day 12, when it rallied over 2% on heavier volume than the prior session. In addition, it is important to note that the bulls scored a victory since many of the major averages closed above their downward sloping 50 DMA lines for the first time since late July! Our longstanding clients/readers know, we like to filter out the noise and focus on what matters most: market action. If you are looking for specific help navigating this market, please contact us for more information.
    Stop Chasing Stocks,
    Let Them Chase You!
    Join FindLeadingStocks.com Today!

  • Day 8: Both Stocks & The US Dollar Rally

    Looking at the market, the major averages closed with modest gains on Wednesday as the major averages consolidate their recent move. As long as February 5th lows are not breached the window remains open for a new follow-through day (FTD) to emerge. A new follow-through day will confirm the current rally attempt and will be produced when one of the major averages rallies at least +1.7% on higher volume than the prior session as a new batch of leaders breakout of sound bases. However, if the February 5, 2010 lows are breached then the day count will be reset and a steeper correction may unfold.
    It is also important to see how the major averages react to their respective 50-day moving average (DMA) lines which were support and are now acting as resistance. Until they all close above that important level the technical damage remaining on the charts is a concern. So far, the market’s reaction has been tepid at best to the latest round of economic and earnings data which remains a concern. Remember that the market remains in a correction until a new new follow-through day emerges. Until then, patience is paramount.

  • Week in Review: Stocks Finally Pull Back & Large Double Top Forming

    Market Finally Takes A Breather: We wrote last week that, “In the short term, the market looks a little tired up here and has earned the right to pause for a while to catch its breath.” That is exactly what has happened as the major averages fell last week after a slew of “important” data was…

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *