S&P 500 Up 100% From March 2009 Low!

Wednesday, February 16, 2011
Stock Market Commentary:
Stocks rallied on Wednesday after the latest round of economic, earnings, & M&A news were released. The benchmark S&P 500 is up 100% from its March 2009 low! The benchmark S&P 500 is up 100% from its March 2009 low! On average, market internals remain healthy as the major averages continue marching higher. The fact that the major averages bounced back sharply after a very brief pullback in January illustrates how strong this 25-week rally actually is.

Housing Starts, PPI, and Industrial Production:

After Tuesday’s close, Dell (DELL), the world’s second largest computer manufacturer said earnings and revenue easily topped estimates. This set the stage for a healthy rally in a slew of tech stocks. The news on the M&A front was also healthy as Sanofi-Aventis (SASY.PA) said it plans to acquire Genzyme (GENZ) for $20.1 billion in cash and activist investor Nelson Peltz’s Trian Group offered to acquire Family Dollar Stores Inc (FDO) for $55 to $60 per share in cash or $7.6 billion.
Housing construction was mixed last month and remained at a very weak levels. Starts advanced while permits fell back. Housing starts rose +14.6% after falling -5.1% in December. Elsewhere, the producer price index (PPI) rose which suggests inflation is accelerating. The headline number rose +0.8%, matching the median forecast. Core prices, which strip out food and energy, rose +0.5% which topped the Street’s estimate for a +0.2% gain. If inflation continues to accelerate, the Fed will have more pressure to raise rates sooner than expected. A separate report showed industrial production falling to 5.2% from 6.3% in December. At 2pm EST, the FOMC released the minutes of its latest meeting which largely reiterated their recent support for QE II.

Market Action- Confirmed Rally; Week 25 Begins

It was encouraging to see the bulls show up and defend the major averages’ respective 50 DMA lines in November as this market proves resilient and simply refuses to go down. From our point of view, the market remains in a confirmed rally until those levels are breached. The tech-heavy Nasdaq composite and small-cap Russell 2000 indexes continue to lead evidenced by their shallow correction and strong recovery. However, it is important to note that stocks are a bit extended here and a pullback of some sort (back to the 50 DMA lines) would do wonders to restore the health of this bull market. If you are looking for specific high ranked ideas, please contact us for more information.

Are You Looking For Someone To Manage Your Money?
Our Private Wealth Management Services Can Help You!

Similar Posts

  • 50 DMA Line Is Resistance

    Market Outlook- Market In A Correction
    From our point of view, the market is in a correction as a new downtrend has formed and the 50 DMA line is broken for many of the major averages. Since the beginning of May, we have urged caution as the major averages and a host of commodities began selling off. Looking forward, the next level of support is the 9-month upward trendline and the next level of resistance is the 50 DMA line and then the 2011 highs. If you are looking for specific help navigating this market, please contact us for more information.
    Want Better Results?
    You Need Better Ideas!
    We Know Markets!
    Learn How Our Consulting Services Can Help You!

  • Market Remains In A Correction; Day Count Reset

    All the major averages sliced below their recent lows which means the day count is reset and we are now looking for Day 1 of a new rally attempt to occur. At this point, the 200 DMA line (i.e. 40 week-moving average) remains support for all the major averages while the 50 DMA line is resistance. If the 200 DMA line is breached, on a closing basis, then odds favor lower prices will follow. The converse is also true. Until either event occurs, we should expect this sideways action (between the 50 & 200 DMA line) to continue. What does all of this mean for investors? Simple, the market remains in a correction which reiterates the importance of adopting a strong defense stance until a new rally is confirmed. Trade accordingly.

  • Stocks End Near Highs; Economic Data Weak

    Some might say that Thursday marked day 1 of a new rally attempt due to the fact that the major averages closed in the upper half of their intraday ranges, recovering from steep losses in the first half of the session. That still does not change the fact that the market is in a correction which emphasizes the importance of raising cash and adopting a strong defensive stance until a new follow-through day emerges. For the past several weeks, this column has steadily noted the importance of remaining very selective and disciplined because all of the major averages are still trading below their downward sloping 50-day moving average (DMA) lines. Their 50 DMA line may continue to act as stubborn resistance. It was also recently noted that the NYSE Composite Index’s 50 DMA line already sliced below the 200 DMA line, an event known by market technicians as a “death cross” which usually has bearish implications. Trade accordingly.

  • Stocks Mixed, Commodities Down; USD Up

    Heretofore, the action since this rally was confirmed on the September 1, 2010 follow-through day (FTD) has been strong but the market action has been wide-and-loose which is not a healthy sign. The S&P 500 sliced below its two month upward trendline (shown above) which is not ideal. The next level of support for the major averages is their September highs, then their respective 200-day moving average (DMA) lines while the next level of resistance is their respective April highs. We have enjoyed large gains since the September 1st FTD and for the first time, the tape is getting sloppy. Trade accordingly.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *