S&P 500 Up 100% From March 2009 Low!

Wednesday, February 16, 2011
Stock Market Commentary:
Stocks rallied on Wednesday after the latest round of economic, earnings, & M&A news were released. The benchmark S&P 500 is up 100% from its March 2009 low! The benchmark S&P 500 is up 100% from its March 2009 low! On average, market internals remain healthy as the major averages continue marching higher. The fact that the major averages bounced back sharply after a very brief pullback in January illustrates how strong this 25-week rally actually is.

Housing Starts, PPI, and Industrial Production:

After Tuesday’s close, Dell (DELL), the world’s second largest computer manufacturer said earnings and revenue easily topped estimates. This set the stage for a healthy rally in a slew of tech stocks. The news on the M&A front was also healthy as Sanofi-Aventis (SASY.PA) said it plans to acquire Genzyme (GENZ) for $20.1 billion in cash and activist investor Nelson Peltz’s Trian Group offered to acquire Family Dollar Stores Inc (FDO) for $55 to $60 per share in cash or $7.6 billion.
Housing construction was mixed last month and remained at a very weak levels. Starts advanced while permits fell back. Housing starts rose +14.6% after falling -5.1% in December. Elsewhere, the producer price index (PPI) rose which suggests inflation is accelerating. The headline number rose +0.8%, matching the median forecast. Core prices, which strip out food and energy, rose +0.5% which topped the Street’s estimate for a +0.2% gain. If inflation continues to accelerate, the Fed will have more pressure to raise rates sooner than expected. A separate report showed industrial production falling to 5.2% from 6.3% in December. At 2pm EST, the FOMC released the minutes of its latest meeting which largely reiterated their recent support for QE II.

Market Action- Confirmed Rally; Week 25 Begins

It was encouraging to see the bulls show up and defend the major averages’ respective 50 DMA lines in November as this market proves resilient and simply refuses to go down. From our point of view, the market remains in a confirmed rally until those levels are breached. The tech-heavy Nasdaq composite and small-cap Russell 2000 indexes continue to lead evidenced by their shallow correction and strong recovery. However, it is important to note that stocks are a bit extended here and a pullback of some sort (back to the 50 DMA lines) would do wonders to restore the health of this bull market. If you are looking for specific high ranked ideas, please contact us for more information.

Are You Looking For Someone To Manage Your Money?
Our Private Wealth Management Services Can Help You!

Similar Posts

  • Stocks Erase 2011 Gains; Day Count Reset

    Market Outlook- Market In A Correction:
    From our point of view, the market is back in a correction now that all the major averages closed below their respective 50 DMA lines and important upward trendlines. Since the beginning of May, we have urged our clients and readers to be extremely cautious as the major averages and a host of commodities began selling off. Looking forward, the next level of resistance for the major averages is their recent lows (i.e. 1294 in the S&P 500) and then their respective 50 DMA lines. The next level of support is their longer term 200 DMA lines and then their March 2011 lows.
    For those of you that are interested, the S&P 500 hit a new 2011 high on May 2, 2011. Two days later, on Wednesday, May 4, 2011, we turned cautious and said “The Rally Was Under Pressure” (read here). Then on Monday, 5.23.11, we changed our outlook to “Market In A Correction” (read here). On Monday June 6, 2011 we pointed out that the S&P 500 violated its 9-month upward trendline (read here) and reiterated our cautious stance. We have received a lot of “thank you” emails for being “spot on” in our cautious approach. We are humbled by your presence and very thankful for your continued support. If you are looking for specific help navigating this market, please contact us for more information.
    Stock Market Research?
    Global Macro Research?
    Want To Follow Trends?
    Learn How We Can Help You!

  • Stocks Rally On Solid Earnings & Economic Data

    The rally began overnight when Japan reported machinery orders surged +10.1% compared to a -4.5% decline expected by economists. More stronger than expected economic data was released in the US when import prices fell in September, reflecting a drop in energy prices. The -0.3% decline in the import-price index topped the median forecast and followed a +0.6% gain in August. Earnings news also topped estimates with companies such as CSX Corp (CSX), Intel Inc. (INTL), and JPMorgan Chase (JPM) releasing their Q3 results. The fact that the market rallied on the news bodes well for this 7-week rally.

  • Holding Pattern Continues As Market Awaits New Year

    Before Thursday’s open, the Labor Department said weekly jobless claims fell to the lowest level since July 2008 which was a healthy sign for the ailing jobs market. Last week, jobless claims fell by -34,000 to 388,000, lower than the median forecast of 415,000 according to Bloomberg News. After the open, the Chicago PMI topped estimates and rose to 68.6 which bodes well for the ongoing economic recovery. At 10 AM EST, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) said their pending home sales index topped estimates and rose +3.5% to 92.2 from a downwardly revised 89.1 in October. Pending home sales indicate pending contracts that have yet to be closed. The market barely budged on the news which reiterates our thesis that the major averages are in a tight holding pattern until 2011. However, the recent 4-month rally in the major averages suggests the economy will continue to improve in the first half of 2011 and, barring some unforeseen event, the risk of a double dip recession is temporarily off the table. Normally, the stock market serves as a leading indicator and a great discounting mechanism for the economy.

  • Stocks Tank on EU Downgrades & Goldman Testimony

    Tuesday, April 27, 2010 Market Commentary It is important to note that the major averages have been steadily rallying since early February and a pullback of some sort should be expected. Tuesday marked the latest distribution day since the rally was confirmed on the March 1, 2010 follow-through day (FTD). According to the paper, there are 7 distribution days for the NYSE, 6 for the S&P 500, 5 for the Dow, and 2 for the Nasdaq. This puts subtle pressure on this 9-week rally.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *