Here’s how the market performed in Q1 (& so far in 2017): DJ Industrial Avg +4.56%, S&P 500 +5.57%, Nasdaq Comp +9.82%, Russell 2000 +2.13%. The title of last week’s article was: Market Tests Support. On cue, the bulls showed up earlier in the week and defended support for the major indices (50 DMA line which was highlighted for you in last week’s report). That was the first real test of the 50 DMA line since the election. For now, the bulls emerged victorious because that level was defended. Going forward, the bulls remain in control as long as the major indices remain above that important level. I do want to note that the tape is getting a little messy and several important areas of are below their respective 50 DMA lines: Transports (IYT), Steel Stocks (SLX), Russell 2000 (IWM), Mid-Cap 400 (MDY), Materials (XLB), just to name a few. Right now, there are three options: 1. the market bounces from here, lifting these areas back above their 50 DMA lines. 2. The major indices rollover and break below support. 3. The market moves sideways for a few months to consolidate the recent move. Until the market cracks, the bulls have earned the benefit of the doubt and the market likely heads higher from here.
Thur & Fri Action:
On Thursday, the market rallied nicely as bank and energy stocks bounced back from deeply oversold levels. The Nasdaq posted a record close as tech stocks continue to shine. In other news, oil jumped above $50 a barrel as it also bounced back from oversold levels. Stocks were relatively quiet on Friday which was the last day of the month and quarter.
Market Outlook: Strong Action Continues
The market remains strong as the major indices continue to hit fresh record highs. The bulls have a very strong fundamental backdrop of monetary and now fiscal policy. All the major central banks are still relatively “dovish” which is bullish for stocks. The U.S. Fed only raised rates by a quarter point to 0.75%, which, historically, is still very low. On the fiscal side, Trump’s pro-growth policies are received well. As always, keep your losses small and never argue with the tape. Want Adam To Be Your Personal Portfolio Consultant? You Don’t Have To Feel Alone In The Market, There Is A Better Way: Learn More