Week-In-Review: Stocks Are Up Every Week Since Trump Became President

Byinfo@50park.com

Stocks Rally On Trump’s 3rd Week In Office

Stocks are up three weeks in a row and have literally rallied every week since Trump took office. The market closed at fresh record highs as buyers continue to accumulate stocks. Stepping back, this is beginning to feel like the very early stages of a 1999 style climax/blow-off top. Of course, we are open for any possible scenario that may unfold but, for now, we are in a very strong bull market and weakness should be bought, not sold. The strength is broad based as big money continues to flow into the major indices and several important sectors: Financials ($XLF), Materials ($XLB), Industrials ($XLI), Steel ($SLX), and Technology, just to name a few. For now, pullbacks remain very shallow in both size (small % decline) and scope (short in duration). Until that changes, the bulls remain in clear control. We do want to note that markets do not go straight up and are getting extended to the upside. A nice light volume pullback would be very welcomed.

Mon-Wed Action:

Stocks ended slightly lower on Monday as investors digested the latest round of earnings. Energy stocks weighed on the market as crude oil fell. So far, over half of the S&P 500 companies have reported fourth-quarter results, and about two-thirds of them beat Wall Street expectations, according to Thomson Reuters. Furthermore, the long earnings recession is most likely over.Stocks were relatively quiet on Tuesday as investors continued to digest the latest round of earnings and economic data. Energy prices continued to fall as the US dollar rallied. Shares of General Motors (GM) tumbled over 4.5% after the company reported earnings. The automobile giant said it will pay each employee $12,000 in an effort to help retention and boost morale. Stocks closed mixed on Wednesday as  metals rallied.  Investors are looking forward to Trump’s pro-growth policies such as cutting taxes, deregulation and government spending…but nothing happening just yet. The S&P 500 hasn’t had a 1% intraday move since Dec 14! That is the longest period of intra-day nothingness in history.

Thur & Fri Action:

Stocks rallied on Thursday after Trump promised a “big league” tax announcement. The market has been looking forward to hearing Trump’s tax plan because that is expected to be a big boost to the economy. Economic data was quiet. Weekly jobless claims slid by 12,000 to 234,000, which was lower than the Street’s estimate for 250,000. Separately, wholesale trade data for December showed a 1% increase on inventories. Stocks rallied on Friday after Trump took a big step closer to strengthening relations with both Japan and China.

Market Outlook: Strong Action Continues

The market remains strong as the major indices continue to hit fresh record highs. The bulls have a very strong fundamental backdrop of monetary and now fiscal policy. The ECB extended QE in December and will print another 2.4T to stimulate markets and the global economy. The U.S. Fed only raised rates once in 2016, by a quarter point to 0.50%, which, historically, is still very low. On the fiscal side, Trump’s pro-growth policies are received well. As always, keep your losses small and never argue with the tape.  Schedule a complimentary appointment today –  if you want Adam to manage your portfolio or talk about your investment needs. Visit: 50Park.com

Similar Posts

  • Quiet Day On Wall Street

    Byinfo@50park.com

    It was encouraging to see the bulls show up and defend the major averages’ respective 50 DMA lines as this market proves resilient and simply refuses to go down. The market remains in a confirmed rally until those levels are breached. The tech-heavy Nasdaq composite and small-cap Russell 2000 indexes continue to lead evidenced by their shallow correction and strong recovery. However, it is important to note that stocks are a bit extended here and a pullback of some sort (back to the 50 DMA lines) would do wonders to restore the health of this bull market. If you are looking for specific high ranked ideas, please contact us for more information.

  • Healthy Week On Wall St; Stocks Close Above Resistance!

    Byinfo@50park.com

    It was a very constructive week on Wall Street as all the major averages traded above their respective two month downward trendlines and their respective 50 DMA lines. It was also encouraging to see the Dow Jones Industrial Average & and the tech-heavy Nasdaq composite close above their longer term downward sloping 200 DMA lines. There is no point in fighting the tape and the bulls deserve the bullish benefit of the doubt until this “breakout” is negated. Trade accordingly.

  • Week-In-Review: Stocks Sit Below Major Resistance

    Byinfo@50park.com

    Stocks Sit Below Major Resistance As Earnings Season Begins Stocks rallied last week as the bulls sent the major indices above important areas of resistance and within striking distance of fresh record highs. Most of the big financials rallied last week after reporting crummy numbers. This reinforces our point about focusing on the reaction, not the actual…

  • Day 1 Of A New Rally Attempt

    Byinfo@50park.com

    Looking at the market, Wednesday marked Day 1 of a new rally attempt which means that as long as Wednesday’s lows are not breached, the earliest a possible follow-through day could emerge will be this Monday. However, if Wednesday’s lows are taken out, then the day count will be reset and the chances for a steeper correction increase markedly. It is also important to see how the major averages react to their respective 50 DMA lines. Until they all close above that important level the technical damage remaining on the charts is a concern. So far, the market’s reaction has been tepid at best to the latest round of economic and earnings data. Remember that the recent series of distribution days coupled with the deleterious action in the major averages suggests large institutions are aggressively selling stocks. Disciplined investors will now wait for a new follow-through day to be produced before resuming any buying efforts. Until then, patience is key.

  • Week In Review: Fed's Easy Money Stance Here To Stay

    Byinfo@50park.com

    Fed, “Easy Money” Here To Stay 06.20.14 That didn’t last long- the S&P 500 (SPX) pullback only lasted one short week before the bulls regained control of this market and sent stocks to fresh record highs after 6/18’s Fed meeting. The fact that the consolidation only lasted one week illustrates how strong the bulls are…

  • Stocks Soar On EU Bailout

    Byinfo@50park.com

    The technical action in global equity markets is not promising. At this point, several European stock market’s have fallen over -20% from their 52-week highs which technically defines a bear market. The major US averages are all trading below their respective 50 DMA lines which is not healthy. It was also disconcerting to see volume dry up on Monday as the major averages “bounced” from egregiously oversold levels, which usually suggests massive short covering, not new buying efforts. A host of leading stocks closed near their lows after a very strong open which is a subtle, yet important, sign of distribution. However, if this market resolves itself and wants to go higher, we will need to see a proper follow-through day (FTD) emerge before a new rally can be confirmed. Monday marked Day 1 of a new rally attempt which means that as long as Monday’s lows are not breached the earliest a possible FTD could emerge will be Thursday (Day 4). In addition, if Monday’s lows are breached then the day count will be reset. Taking the appropriate action on a case-by-case basis with your stocks prompts investors to raise cash when any holdings start getting into trouble. Trade accordingly.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *