Daily Market Commentary

Week-In-Review: Stocks Rally As Earnings Season Begins

14 Jul

Stocks Rally As Earnings Season Begins

Stocks ended higher last week as investors digested a busy week of macro data and earnings season officially began.  The big bullish catalyst last week came from global central banks. The U.S. Fed and the European Central Bank (ECB) made dovish comments which prompted buyers to return from a 4-week hiatus. First, Janet Yellen softened her recent slightly hawkish stance when she gave a somewhat dovish testimony on Capitol Hill. Second, the ECB said it is ready to print money (continue QE) for the next few years. This was a bullish one-two punch that helped buyers return to the market. Earnings season officially kicked off last week and a slew of companies will be reporting over the next several weeks. Remember, in addition to analyzing the data, we focus more on how the market reacts to the data. Three of the big banks opened lower on Friday after reporting earnings: Wells Fargo (WFC), JP Morgan (JPM) and Citigroup (C). So far, that is not ideal but we’ll see how it plays out over the next few weeks.

Mon-Wed Action:

Stocks closed mostly higher on Monday as investors prepared for earnings season. Amazon’s stock jumped nearly 2% as the company got set for its big Prime Day sales. Prime Day features big deals for Amazon’s Prime customers and tries to encourage non-prime members to join prime. Needless to say, Prime Day was a huge success for the company. On Tuesday, stocks ended higher in a volatile session after Donald Trump Jr. released a chain of emails that showed direct connection with a Russian lawyer. Intra-day, the Dow fell about 100 points but recovered by the close, again showing how strong the market is right now. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said U.S. banks are still too big to fail which barely moved the needle. Stocks rallied nicely on Wednesday after Janet Yellen gave dovish testimony on Capitol Hill. Yellen basically said the Fed is ready to shift back to an easy money policies if conditions deteriorate. Big money also flowed into a slew of beaten down tech stocks as they come back into play.

Thur & Fri Action:

On Thursday, stocks rallied helping the Dow hit a fresh record high. The ECB said it is ready to continue QE for the next few years which is also a very dovish stance. Remember, the entire move from the historic 2009 low was based on easy money from global central banks. So the fact that they are still ready to shift back to an ultra-easy money stance was enough to bring buyers back into the market. Stocks edged higher on Friday after Wells Fargo, JP Morgan and Citigroup all reported earnings. Interestingly, all three stocks fell in the morning but the broader market still rallied.

Market Outlook: Bulls Defend Support

The bulls showed up and defended important support in June which is very bullish for the market. As we have said several times over the past month, as long as support holds, the bulls remain in control of this market. As always, keep your losses small and never argue with the tape. Get Our Free e-Book: Learn How To Buy Leading Stocks…EARLY. Get It Here…

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31 Mar
Daily Market Commentary

Week-In-Review: Bulls Defend Support

Bulls Defend Support

Here’s how the market performed in Q1 (& so far in 2017): DJ Industrial Avg +4.56%, S&P 500 +5.57%, Nasdaq Comp +9.82%, Russell 2000 +2.13%. The title of last week’s article was: Market Tests Support. On cue, the bulls showed up earlier in the week and defended support for the major indices (50 DMA line which was highlighted for you in last week’s report). That was the first real test of the 50 DMA line since the election. For now, the bulls emerged victorious because that level was defended. Going forward, the bulls remain in control as long as the major indices remain above that important level. I do want to note that the tape is getting a little messy and several important areas of are below their respective 50 DMA lines: Transports (IYT), Steel Stocks (SLX), Russell 2000 (IWM), Mid-Cap 400 (MDY), Materials (XLB), just to name a few. Right now, there are three options: 1. the market bounces from here, lifting these areas back above their 50 DMA lines. 2. The major indices rollover and break below support. 3. The market moves sideways for a few months to consolidate the recent move. Until the market cracks, the bulls have earned the benefit of the doubt and the market likely heads higher from here.   

Mon-Wed Action:

Stocks fell on Monday as the major indices tested their respective 50 DMA lines for the first time since the election. The Dow Jones Industrial Average posted a 8-day slide which was the longest since 2011. The narrative of the day was that investors were concerned Trump’s tax reform bill would get blocked because the Healthcare bill didn’t pass. Stocks opened lower and closed higher on Tuesday after the bulls showed up and defended support (50 DMA line). The Dow snapped its 8-day losing streak and rallied nicely causing the buy-the-dip crowd to step in and buy the first real dip since the election. Stocks closed mostly higher on Wednesday after the United Kingdom passed article 50 which officially begins the Brexit process.

Thur & Fri Action:

On Thursday, the market rallied nicely as bank and energy stocks bounced back from deeply oversold levels. The Nasdaq posted a record close as tech stocks continue to shine. In other news, oil jumped above $50 a barrel as it also bounced back from oversold levels. Stocks were relatively quiet on Friday which was the last day of the month and quarter. 

Market Outlook: Strong Action Continues

The market remains strong as the major indices continue to hit fresh record highs. The bulls have a very strong fundamental backdrop of monetary and now fiscal policy. All the major central banks are still relatively “dovish” which is bullish for stocks. The U.S. Fed only raised rates by a quarter point to 0.75%, which, historically, is still very low. On the fiscal side, Trump’s pro-growth policies are received well. As always, keep your losses small and never argue with the tape. Want Adam To Be Your Personal Portfolio Consultant? You Don’t Have To Feel Alone In The Market, There Is A Better Way: Learn More