Where's The Volume?

Wednesday, December 1, 2010
Stock Market Commentary:
The Nasdaq composite and the small-cap Russell 2000 index both soared but failed to produce a proper follow-through day (FTD) because volume was lighter than the prior session. Therefore the market is still in a correction until a new proper FTD emerges.
Euro Woes Ease, Chinese Mfg Jumps, & US Economic Data Is Strong:
Overnight, Jean Claude Trichet, head of the European Central Bank (ECB), said the central bank was ready to step in and buy distressed assets to help curb EU contagion woes. This helped ease concern that the ominous debt woes will spread and that the euro will breakup. The euro rallied on the news which sent stock markets around the world higher. In other news, China said that mfg jumped to a 7-month high which bodes well for the global economic recovery. Before Wednesday’s open, ADP, the country’s large private payrolls company, said private jobs vaulted +93,000 last month which easily topped estimates and September’s reading was revised higher. Elsewhere, the US ISM mfg index rose for the 16th consecutive month and was little changed at 56.6.
Market Action- Correction Enters Week 3
It is encouraging to see the bulls show up this week and defend the 50 DMA lines for the major averages. Wednesday marked Day 1 of a new rally attempt for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the benchmark S&P 500 which means the earliest a possible FTD could emerge for those indices is Monday. Meanwhile, the tech-heavy Nasdaq composite and small-cap Russell 2000 indexes marked Day 10 of their respective rally attempts which means the window remains open for either of those two indices to score a proper FTD. Trade accordingly.

Are You Looking For Someone To Manage Your Money?
Our Private Wealth Management Services Can Help You!

Sarhan Wealth Management provides both global macro and equity only consulting services to high net worth and institutional clients around the world. For years, our clientele has participated in the firm’s objective market-based outlook, which has one primary goal: to provide robust trading ideas across all asset classes. Since 2004 we have outperformed the S&P 500 on a regular basis. These results are based solely on our weekly research. All our historical data is available upon request.
How we can improve your performance:

  • Achieve better results in the market by working with an objective third party.
  • Provide you with sound buy/sell ideas in real-time.
  • Provide objective feedback on your investment ideas and market outlook.
  • Contribute profitable ideas to your investment committee (if applicable).
  • All investment ideas are fully transparent, unbiased, and based on market action, not opinions.
  • Help create uniformed structure within your organization.

Contact Us To Learn How We Can Help You!

Investors in China were treading cautiously as the latest manufacturing data indicated the economy is growing solidly, heightening concerns about further tightening measures from Beijing to cool rising inflation.
China’s Purchasing Managers Index rose to 55.2 in November from 54.7 in October, according to data released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, marking the 21st consecutive expansion in manufacturing activity.
The strong result was reinforced by the HSBC China PMI, a gauge of nationwide manufacturing activity, which rose to 55.3 in November from 54.8 in October.
“This provides further evidence that price pressures are uncomfortably strong and will reinforce the case for further—and more urgent—policy normalization to get inflation under control,” Royal Bank of Canada economist Brian Jackson wrote in a note.
Beijing has delivered a series of tightening measures as consumer price inflation hit a two-year high of 4.4% in October. The central bank raised interest rates for the first time in almost three years in October and increased the reserve requirement ratio for banks twice in November

Similar Posts

  • Week In Review: Leaders Get Hit As Market Churns

    Initially, the market rallied on the jobs report but sellers quickly emerged which put pressure on the market. It was disconcerting to see a several high profile leaders such as Apple Inc. (AAPL -1.61%) and Netflix (NFLX -3.04%) get smacked on Friday. Apple, one the strongest stocks since the March lows, triggered a technical sell signal when it violated its well defined 8-month upward trendline and its 50 DMA line on Friday. This was the first time since the March low that Apple closed below support (its upward trendline and 50 DMA line). Volume surged as the stocks fell which indicated that large institutional investors were unloading their positions, not Aunt Mary or Uncle Bob. The dollar rallied sharply after the jobs report was released which put pressure on a slew of commodities, mainly gold. Gold plunged sharply today which dragged a slew of gold related stocks. Remember that gold has been one of the strongest performing groups in recent weeks and now that it has fallen, a new group will need to emerge to carry this market higher. That coupled with the recent questionable action in the major averages and the dearth of leadership suggests this rally is “under pressure” which means caution is advised.

  • Stocks Smacked After Fed Decision

    Market Outlook- Rally Under Pressure:
    The major averages confirmed their latest rally attempt on Tuesday, August 23, 2011 which was the 11th day of their latest rally attempt. It is important to note that all major rallies in history began with a FTD however not every FTD leads to a new rally (i.e. several FTDs fail). In addition, it is important to note that the major averages still are under pressure as they are all trading below their longer and shorter term moving averages (50 and 200 DMA lines) and are all still negative year-to-date. Our longstanding clients/readers know, we like to filter out the noise and focus on what matters most: market action. This rally will fail if/when several distribution days emerge or August’s lows are breached. Until then, the bulls deserve the benefit of the doubt. If you are looking for specific help navigating this market, please contact us for more information.

  • Week Long Rally Continues

    Market Action- Market In Confirmed Rally Week 20
    It was encouraging to see the bulls show up in November and defend the major averages’ respective 50 DMA lines. The market remains in a confirmed rally until those levels are breached. The tech-heavy Nasdaq composite and small-cap Russell 2000 indexes continue to lead evidenced by their shallow correction and strong recovery. However, it is important to note that stocks are a bit extended here and a pullback of some sort (back to the 50 DMA lines) would do wonders to restore the health of this bull market. Put simply, stocks are strong. Trade accordingly. If you are looking for specific high ranked ideas, please contact us for more information.

  • Quiet Day On Wall Street

    It was encouraging to see the bulls show up and defend the major averages’ respective 50 DMA lines as this market proves resilient and simply refuses to go down. The market remains in a confirmed rally until those levels are breached. The tech-heavy Nasdaq composite and small-cap Russell 2000 indexes continue to lead evidenced by their shallow correction and strong recovery. However, it is important to note that stocks are a bit extended here and a pullback of some sort (back to the 50 DMA lines) would do wonders to restore the health of this bull market. If you are looking for specific high ranked ideas, please contact us for more information.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *