Stocks Surrender Earlier Gains

SPX- July's Highs Are Resistance
SPX- July's Highs Are Resistance

Friday, February 10, 2012
Stock Market Commentary:

Stocks and a slew of other risk assets ended the week mixed to slightly lower after Greece finally accepted the tough austerity terms of its second bailout package from the EU and the IMF. From our point of view, the major averages confirmed their latest rally attempt on Tuesday 1.3.12 which was Day 9 of their current rally attempt. It was also encouraging to see the S&P 500 break above its downward trendline and its longer term 200 DMA line. Looking forward, the S&P 500 has done a great job staying above its Q4 2011 high (~1292) and now has its sights set on its 2011, high near 1370. In addition, the bulls remain in control as long as the benchmark S&P 500 trades above 1292 and then its 200 DMA line.

Monday-Wednesday’s Action: Stocks Consolidate Recent Gains:

Before Monday’s open, stocks in Europe fell after Greece missed another deadline to receive a second bailout package from the EU and the IMF. Greek officials were supposed to reply by noon in Brussels to the European Union on new and difficult terms for a second bailout package. Stocks were quiet on Tuesday as Ben Bernanke testified on Capital Hill and the world awaited a resolution to the second bailout for Greece. U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke reiterated his recent stance to support the global economy and help stem Europe’s financial crisis from adversely affecting the U.S. economy. Bernanke remained cautious about the prospects for the U.S. economy. Stocks were quiet again on Wednesday as the world continued to wait for a solution to the second Greek bailout and the latest round of earnings were released. Economic data was light, the Mortgage Bankers Association said weekly mortgage applications rose sharply last week which was another sign of a bottom in the ailing housing market. As we have said since the middle of 2011, housing stocks have appeared to have traced out a near term bottom and they usually move 3-9 months before the housing market moves. Therefore, if they continue to rally we have to believe that a bottom is in place for the ailing housing market. Earnings data was mixed but the market’s reaction so far has been positive.

Thursday & Friday’s Action: Greece Agrees To Bailout Terms, ECB and BOE Meetings Barely Move Markets

Investors digested a lot of earnings and economic data on Thursday. The big news was that Greece agreed to to the demanding terms of its second bailout package from the EU and the IMF. Separately, the Bank of England (BOE) and the European Central Bank (ECB) both concluded their latest meetings. The BOE injected (printed more money) $79.3 billion to boost their struggling economy. Meanwhile, the ECB held rates steady at 1% and made it clear that they are willing to take additional (and aggressive) steps to save the Euro, if needed. Finally, the Labor Department said jobless claims fell by 15,000 to a seasonally adjusted 358,000. Stocks fell on Friday after the trade balance in the U.S. topped estimates and grew to $48.8B in December. Elsewhere, the latest read on consumer confidence missed estimates which is not ideal for the broader economy.

Market Outlook- New Rally Confirmed

Nearly all risk assets are extended by any normal measure and are due for a pullback to consolidate their recent gains. The key is to ascertain the health of the pullback to see if it is a short pause in a new uptrend or the beginning of a new downtrend. Risk assets (stocks, FX, and commodities) have been acting better since the latter half of December. Now that the major U.S. averages scored a proper follow-through day the path of least resistance is higher. Looking forward, one can err on the long side as long as the benchmark S&P 500 remains above support (1292). Leadership is beginning to improve which is another healthy sign. Now that the 200 DMA line was taken out it will be important to see how long the market can stay above this important level. If you are looking for specific help navigating this market, feel free to contact us for more information. That’s what we are here for!
 

Similar Posts

  • S&P 500 Perched Below Resistance

    Market Action- Market In Confirmed Rally Week 15
    It is encouraging to see the bulls show up and defend the 50 DMA lines for the major averages. The market remains in a confirmed rally until those levels are breached. The tech-heavy Nasdaq composite and small-cap Russell 2000 indexes continue to lead evidenced by their shallow correction and strong recovery. Put simply, stocks are strong. Trade accordingly.

  • Stocks Plunge To Fresh 2011 Lows!

    Market Outlook- Market In A Correction:
    The major U.S. averages are back in a “correction” as they continue to flirt with their 2011 lows. Allow us to be clear: If the 2011 lows are breached, we will likely see another leg down commence. Please, trade accordingly! Several high ranked leaders violated their respective 50 DMA lines in late September which bodes poorly for the bulls and suggests the bears are getting stronger. The latest follow-through day (FTD) which began on August 23, 2011 has officially ended which means we will begin “counting” days before a new rally can be confirmed. In addition, it is important to note that the bears remain in control of this market until the major averages trade above their longer and shorter term moving averages (50 and 200 DMA lines). Our longstanding clients/readers know, we like to filter out the noise and focus on what matters most: market action. . If you are looking for specific help navigating this market, please contact us for more information.
    Save Over 50%!
    Limited-Time Offer!
    www.FindLeadingStocks.com
    Coming Up This Week:
    TUESDAY: Factory orders, Bernanke speaks, Apple iPhone event; Earnings from Yum Brands
    WEDNESDAY: Weekly mortgage apps, Challenger job-cut report, ADP employment report, IS non-mfg index, oil inventories; Earnings from Costco, Monsanto, Marriott
    THURSDAY: BoE announcement, ECB announcement, jobless claims, chain-store sales; Earnings from Constellation Brands
    FRIDAY: Non-farm payroll, wholesale trade, consumer credit, Sprint’s 4G plans unveiled
    Source: CNBC.com

  • Debt Deadline; To Be, Or Not To Be?

    Market Outlook- Confirmed Rally
    The last week of June’s strong action suggests the market is back in a confirmed rally. As our longstanding clients/readers know, we like to filter out the noise and focus on what matters most: market action. That said, the recent action suggests the rally is back in a confirmed rally as all the major averages are now flirting with fresh 2011 highs. Until all the major averages violate their respective 50 DMA lines on a closing basis, the market deserves the bullish benefit of the doubt. If you are looking for specific help navigating this market, please contact us for more information.
    Stock Market Research?
    Global Macro Research?
    Want To Follow Trends?
    Learn How We Can Help You!

  • Tight Trading Range Continues

    So far, the action since this rally was confirmed on the September 1, 2010 follow-through day (FTD) has been very strong and stocks are simply pausing to consolidate their recent gains. It was encouraging to see the bulls show up and defend support (formerly resistance) in recent weeks. The next level of support for the major averages is their September highs, then their respective 200-day moving average (DMA) lines while the next level of resistance is their respective April highs. Trade accordingly