Happy Birthday Bull Market!

Wednesday, March 09, 2011
Stock Market Commentary:

On Wednesday, stocks slid as oil prices resumed their stubborn advance. The current crisis in the Middle East remains in flux which is putting upward pressure on oil and gold and some modest pressure on equities. The benchmark S&P 500 is up nearly 100% from its March 2009 low, and still about -16% off its all time high from October 2007. On average, market internals remain healthy as the major averages bounced after finding support near their respective 50 DMA lines in late February and early March.

Mortgage Applications & Wholesale Inventories Rise:

The Mortgage Bankers Association’s index of loan applications vaulted +16% during the first week of March. The stronger than expected number was the first piece of good news from the ailing housing sector in weeks. Elsewhere, the Commerce Department said wholesale inventories topped estimates in January. Wholesale inventories rose +1.1% which easily topped the median projection in a Bloomberg News survey for a +0.9% rise. The report also showed that sales rose +3.4% in January, led by technology, automobiles, and commodities.

Market Action- Rally Under Pressure; Week 28

It was encouraging to see the bulls show up and defend the major averages’ respective 50 DMA lines in November, January, late February, and early March. From our point of view, the market remains in rally-mode until those levels are breached. The tech-heavy Nasdaq composite and small-cap Russell 2000 indexes continue to lead evidenced by their shallow correction and strong recovery. If you are looking for specific high ranked ideas, please contact us for more information.

Have You Seen Our New Site?
Visit: www.SarhanCapital.com now!

 
 

Similar Posts

  • Global Economy Continues To Slow

    Market Outlook- Market In A Correction:
    From our point of view, the market is back in a correction now that all the major averages closed below their respective 50 DMA lines and important upward trendlines. Since the beginning of May, we have urged our clients and readers to be extremely cautious as the major averages and a host of commodities began selling off.
    For those of you that are interested, the S&P 500 hit a new 2011 high on May 2, 2011. Two days later, on Wednesday, May 4, 2011, we turned cautious and said “The Rally Was Under Pressure” (read here). Then on Monday, 5.23.11, we changed our outlook to “Market In A Correction” (read here). On Monday June 6, 2011 we pointed out that the S&P 500 violated its 9-month upward trendline (read here) and reiterated our cautious stance. We have received a lot of “thank you” emails for being “spot on” in our cautious approach. We are humbled by your presence and very thankful for your continued support. Looking forward, the next level of resistance for the major averages is their respective 50 DMA lines then their 2011 highs. The next level of support is their longer term 200 DMA lines. If you are looking for specific help navigating this market, please contact us for more information.
    Stock Market Research?
    Global Macro Research?
    Want To Follow Trends?
    Learn How We Can Help You!

  • Stocks Rally On E.U. Optimism

    Market Outlook- Rally Under Pressure:
    The major averages confirmed their latest rally attempt on Tuesday, August 23, 2011 which was the 11th day of their latest rally attempt. It is important to note that all major rallies in history began with a FTD however not every FTD leads to a new rally (i.e. several FTDs fail). In addition, it is important to note that the major averages still are under pressure as they are all trading below their longer and shorter term moving averages (50 and 200 DMA lines) and are all still negative year-to-date. Our longstanding clients/readers know, we like to filter out the noise and focus on what matters most: market action. This rally will fail if/when several distribution days emerge or August’s lows are breached. Until then, the bulls deserve the benefit of the doubt. If you are looking for specific help navigating this market, please contact us for more information.

  • US Stocks Negatively Reverse After China's Currency Becomes More "Flexible"

    It is also important to note that it was encouraging to also see the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the benchmark S&P 500 Index rally above their respective 200-day moving average (DMA) lines last week. The 200 DMA line should now act as support as this market continues advancing, while any reversal below that key technical level would be a worrisome sign.
    Remember to remain very selective because all of the major averages are still trading below their downward sloping 50 DMA lines (which is the next area of resistance). It is also important to note that approximately 75% of FTDs lead to new sustained rallies, while 25% fail. In addition, every major rally in market history has begun with a FTD, but not every FTD leads to a new rally. Trade accordingly.

  • Day 3 Of A New Rally Attempt

    Looking at the market, Wednesday marked Day 3 of a new rally attempt which means that as long as Monday’s lows are not breached, the earliest a possible follow-through day could emerge will be Thursday. However, if Monday’s lows are taken out, then the day count will be reset and the chances for a steeper correction increase markedly. It is also important to see how the major averages react to their respective 50-day moving average (DMA) lines. Until they all close above that important level the technical damage remaining on the charts is a concern. So far, the market’s reaction has been tepid at best to the latest round of economic and earnings data. Remember that the recent series of distribution days coupled with the deleterious action in the major averages suggests large institutions are aggressively selling stocks. Disciplined investors will now wait for a new follow-through day to be produced before resuming any buying efforts. Until then, patience is key.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *