Happy Birthday Bull Market!

Wednesday, March 09, 2011
Stock Market Commentary:

On Wednesday, stocks slid as oil prices resumed their stubborn advance. The current crisis in the Middle East remains in flux which is putting upward pressure on oil and gold and some modest pressure on equities. The benchmark S&P 500 is up nearly 100% from its March 2009 low, and still about -16% off its all time high from October 2007. On average, market internals remain healthy as the major averages bounced after finding support near their respective 50 DMA lines in late February and early March.

Mortgage Applications & Wholesale Inventories Rise:

The Mortgage Bankers Association’s index of loan applications vaulted +16% during the first week of March. The stronger than expected number was the first piece of good news from the ailing housing sector in weeks. Elsewhere, the Commerce Department said wholesale inventories topped estimates in January. Wholesale inventories rose +1.1% which easily topped the median projection in a Bloomberg News survey for a +0.9% rise. The report also showed that sales rose +3.4% in January, led by technology, automobiles, and commodities.

Market Action- Rally Under Pressure; Week 28

It was encouraging to see the bulls show up and defend the major averages’ respective 50 DMA lines in November, January, late February, and early March. From our point of view, the market remains in rally-mode until those levels are breached. The tech-heavy Nasdaq composite and small-cap Russell 2000 indexes continue to lead evidenced by their shallow correction and strong recovery. If you are looking for specific high ranked ideas, please contact us for more information.

Have You Seen Our New Site?
Visit: www.SarhanCapital.com now!

 
 

Similar Posts

  • Home Prices Fall But Consumer Confidence Tops Estimates

    Tuesday, December 27, 2011 Stock Market Commentary: Stocks opened the shortened holiday week higher after the latest round of U.S. consumer sentiment topped estimates. From our point of view, Monday marked Day 5 of the current rally attempt which means the window is now open for a new follow-through day to emerge [as long as…

  • Resistance is Broken!

    Market Outlook- Confirmed Rally:
    The major U.S. averages are back in a new confirmed rally and are flirting with resistance of their current 2.5 month base. The benchmark S&P 500 index scored a proper FTD on Tuesday, October 18, 2011, i.e. Day 12, when it rallied over 2% on heavier volume than the prior session. The next important area of resistance is September’s highs and then the 200 DMA line. In addition, it is important to note that the bulls scored a victory since many of the major averages closed above their downward sloping 50 DMA lines for the first time since late July! Our longstanding clients/readers know, we like to filter out the noise and focus on what matters most: market action. If you are looking for specific help navigating this market, please contact us for more information.
    Stop Losing Money In The Market
    Visit:
    FindLeadingStocks.com

  • Day 11: Stocks Consolidate Recent Move

    Looking at the market, Friday marked day 11 of a new rally attempt which means that as long as the February 5th lows are not breached the window remains open for a new follow-through day (FTD) to emerge. A new follow-through day will confirm the current rally attempt and will be produced when one of the major averages rallies at least +1.7% on higher volume than the prior session as a new batch of leaders break out of fresh bases. However, if the February 5, 2010 lows are breached then the day count will be reset and a steeper correction may unfold. So far, the market’s reaction has been tepid at best to the latest round of economic and earnings data which remains a concern. Remember that the market remains in a correction until a new new follow-through day emerges. Until then, patience is king.

  • Healthy Economic Data Helps Stocks

    Looking at the market, the latest rally attempt was confirmed when a “cautious follow-through day” was produced by the Nasdaq Composite on Monday, March 1. Weighing into the decision to label the day a follow-through-day (FTD) was the strong action in leading stocks along with a great expansion noted in the new highs list. That action suggests that there is a healthy crop of strong stocks capable of fueling a substantial rally higher for the major averages. We will be looking out for any near-term distribution days (high volume declines) which would hurt the chances for this nascent rally. Until then, the bulls deserve the bullish benefit of the doubt as the major averages continue edging higher.
    It is a welcome sign to see the market continue to improve as investors digest the latest round of stronger than expected economic and earnings data. Remember that now that a new rally has been confirmed, the window is open to start buying high quality breakouts. Trade accordingly.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *