Stocks End Relatively Flat In Final Week of August


The technical action in the major averages continues to weaken. Currently, resistance for the the major averages are their 50 DMA lines, then their longer term 200 DMA lines. It is also disconcerting to see the action in several leading stocks remain questionable as evidenced by the dearth of high-ranked leaders breaking out of sound bases. Monday’s negatively reversal emphasizes the importance of remaining cautious until the rally is back in a confirmed uptrend. Put simply, we can expect this sideways/choppy action to continue until the market breaks out above resistance or below support (recent chart lows). The first scenario will have bullish ramifications while the second will be clearly bearish. Trade accordingly.
Stocks rallied on Thursday after healthy trade data helped offset concerns about an increase in weekly unemployment claims. Volume, an important indicator of institutional sponsorship, was mixed when compared to Wednesday’s levels; lower on the NYSE and higher on the Nasdaq exchange.
The action since this rally was confirmed on the September 1, 2010 follow-through day (FTD) has been strong. Looking forward, the window is open for disciplined investors to carefully buy high-ranked stocks, while many so-called pundits are expecting that markets may consolidate following recent gains. It was encouraging to see the bulls show up and defend support (formerly resistance) this week. The next level of support for the major averages is their respective 200-day moving average (DMA) lines while the next level of resistance is their respective April highs. Trade accordingly.
Market Action- Market In Confirmed Rally Week 20
It was encouraging to see the bulls show up in November and defend the major averages’ respective 50 DMA lines. The market remains in a confirmed rally until those levels are breached. The tech-heavy Nasdaq composite and small-cap Russell 2000 indexes continue to lead evidenced by their shallow correction and strong recovery. However, it is important to note that stocks are a bit extended here and a pullback of some sort (back to the 50 DMA lines) would do wonders to restore the health of this bull market. Put simply, stocks are strong. Trade accordingly. If you are looking for specific high ranked ideas, please contact us for more information.
Market Outlook- Rally Under Pressure:
The major averages confirmed their latest rally attempt on Tuesday, August 23, 2011 which was the 11th day of their latest rally attempt. It is important to note that all major rallies in history began with a FTD however not every FTD leads to a new rally (i.e. several FTDs fail). In addition, it is important to note that the major averages still are under pressure as they are all trading below their longer and shorter term moving averages (50 and 200 DMA lines) and are all still negative year-to-date. Our longstanding clients/readers know, we like to filter out the noise and focus on what matters most: market action. This rally will fail if/when several distribution days emerge or August’s lows are breached. Until then, the bulls deserve the benefit of the doubt. If you are looking for specific help navigating this market, please contact us for more information.
Looking at the recent action in the market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and benchmark S&P 500 index enjoyed their best close of the year as they continue flirting with important resistance levels (10,500 and 1,115 respectively.). The major averages continue acting well as they remain perched just below resistance (their respective 2009 highs) and above their respective 50-day moving average lines. Both these factors are considered healthy and bodes well for this 8-month (41-week) rally. It was also encouraging to see the Nasdaq close above 2,200 which has served as formidable resistance over the past few months. A slew of economic data is slated to be released this week and, as always, it will be very important to see how the market reacts to that news.