Week-In-Review: Stocks Start Fourth Quarter With A Bang!

Strong Start To Q4

The S&P has closed at a record high six straight days which is its longest run of the millennium (since 1997)! Stocks rallied sharply last week as the bulls remain in clear control of this market. At this point, the market is now extended (in the short term) and remains very strong. It is important to keep in mind that the fourth quarter tends to be a seasonally strong period for the market and that means we can easily head much higher over the next few months. In the short term, I would be remiss not to note that the market is extended to the upside and due to pullback. Underneath the surface, the action remains picture perfect as the great mini-rotation remains alive and well. Until we see any formidable selling, the bulls deserve the benefit of the doubt. Remember, in strong bull markets (present market included), weakness should be bought, not sold.

Mon-Wed Action:

Stocks rallied on Monday which marked the first trading day of the fourth quarter. Financials and health care stocks led the market higher which bodes well for the broader averages. The world woke up to the horrific news out of Las Vegas. The mass shooting sent several big casino stocks lower on Monday as they will have to rethink security in large public places. Separately, economic data was light, the ISM manufacturing index rose to 60.8 in September which was the highest read since May 2004. Stocks rallied on Tuesday as buying continued apace. The CME Group’s FedWatch tool expects the Federal Reserve to raise rates one more time this year which is largely expected to happen in December. The Fed already raised rates twice this year and said several times they plan to raise rates 3 times. Stocks rallied again on Wednesday helping the benchmark S&P 500 to have its longest winning streak since May. Economic data was mixed, ADP and Moody’s said private employers added 135,000 new jobs in September, beating the Street’s estimate for 125,000. Separately, the ISM non-manufacturing index, hit 59.8 in September and easily beat the Street’s estimate for 55.5.

Thur & Fri Action:

Stocks rallied on Thursday helping the S&P 500 to enjoy its first 8-day winning streak since 2013. The big news on Thursday came from D.C., the House passed a $4.1 trillion budget which is the first major step toward tax reform. Last week, the GOP said they want to lower corporate taxes to 20% from 35%. If that bill passes that will be a big boost the U.S. (and global) economy. Stocks were quiet on Friday as the market paused to digest a very strong rally. Separately, the Labor Department said U.S. employers shed 33k jobs in September as the country suffered from two major hurricanes.

Market Outlook: Bulls Are Back In Control

The bulls are back in control and the market remains very strong. As always, keep your losses small and never argue with the tape. Get Our Free e-Book: Learn How To Buy Leading Stocks…EARLY. Get It Here…

Similar Posts

  • Week In Review- 4th Consecutive Weekly Decline! 2.5.10

    Looking at the market, Thursday’s ominous action took out Monday’s lows and effectively ended the brief rally attempt which suggests a steeper correction may unfold and resets the day count for a proper follow-through day to emerge. It is also important to see how the major averages react to their respective 50-day moving average (DMA) lines which were support and are now resistance. Until they all close above that important level the technical damage remaining on the charts is a concern. So far, the market’s reaction has been tepid at best to the latest round of economic and earnings data. Remember that the recent series of distribution days coupled with the deleterious action in the major averages suggests large institutions are aggressively selling stocks. Disciplined investors will now wait for a new follow-through day to be produced before resuming any buying efforts. Until then, patience is paramount. Our readers know that our defensive stance is not new- we have been defensive since January 23, 2010!

  • Stocks Fall; Gold Hits Record High!

    The action since this rally was confirmed on the September 1, 2010 follow-through day (FTD) has been strong. Looking forward, the window is open for disciplined investors to carefully buy high-ranked stocks, while many pundits are expecting that markets may consolidate following recent gains. It was very encouraging to see the major averages and several leading stocks break above stubborn resistance levels and continue marching higher. All the major averages had recently rallied above their respective 200-day moving average (DMA) lines, a clear sign that the overall market is in healthier shape. Now that the summer highs have been exceeded, the next important resistance levels for the major averages are their respective April highs.

  • Week-In-Review: Aug's Lows Are Defended; Bullish Week For Stocks

    Weak Jobs Report: Good For Wall Street, Not Main Street Last week was a very big and important week on Wall Street! Stocks opened lower but closed higher for the week after the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 “tested” Aug’s low. Aug’s low for the S&P 500 was 1867 and last week’s low was 1871….

  • Week In Review: Stocks Edge Higher Ahead of Holiday Weekend

    Stocks Edge Higher Ahead of Long Weekend Stocks edged higher last week as investors digested the latest round of mixed economic and earnings data. In the short term, the market looks a little extended and due for a little pullback to digest its recent gain. The big take-away is that the stock market remains strong…

  • Stocks Dive On Tepid Housing Data

    The technical action in the major averages continues to weaken alongside the latest round of tepid economic data. Currently, resistance for the the major averages are their 50 DMA lines, then their longer term 200 DMA lines. It is also disconcerting to see the action in several leading stocks remain questionable as evidenced by the dearth of high-ranked leaders breaking out of sound bases.
    From our perspective, Monday’s negatively reversal coupled with Tuesday’s ugly distribution day effectively ended the latest rally attempt which emphasizes the importance of remaining cautious until the rally is back in a confirmed uptrend. Put simply, we can expect this sideways/choppy action to continue until the market breaks out above resistance or below support (recent chart lows). The first scenario will have bullish ramifications while the second will be clearly bearish. Trade accordingly.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *